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Putin "President" for Life? Maybe it wouldn't be so bad . . .

Filed under: Europe ~ Russia

sergei_mironov.JPG

You may remember Sergei Mironov (pictured above), Russia's equivalent to the U.S. Senate Majority Leader. When last we heard from him, he was watching approvingly whilst the security forces practiced pumping round after round into a target made out of the face of poisoned dissident Alexander Litvinenko.

Now, the wires are burning with the news that Mironov has proposed legislation to lengthen the presidential term. The AP quoted Mironov as saying: "Four years is a short period of time for a large country like Russia. It is necessary to prolong the presidential term in office to five or maybe seven years." Presumably, if the constitution is changed to permit seven-year terms, Putin will be allowed to seek at least two of them -- and who says the two term limit would necessarily be retained once Pandora's Box is opened?

The AP quoted Nikolai Petrov of the Carnegie Endowment's Moscow office saying: "In this nation, where there is no real parliament and the Cabinet is weak, a lame duck president would mean anarchy. Putin is deliberately uncertain about his plans, and Mironov is taking part in this game which Putin needs." Apparently, support for such an idea runs wide and deep in Russia. The AP quoted Chris Weafer, chief strategist with Moscow-based Alfa Bank, stating: "If it were to become a serious issue you would have a major upspike in the stock market. The issue of the third term just won't go away -- it does seem as though there is an eternal debate in the Kremlin."

Many commentators seem to feel it would be a bad sign for democracy in Russia if Putin were to retain the official reigns of power after 2008 when his term in office must end under the current constitution. But they could be wrong. If Putin stays in office, that likely means he is so unsure of the anti-democratic changes he has wrought that he feels he must stay personally in place to preserve them. If he's willing to walk away from the formal corridors of power even though he doesn't have to, that may well mean he's so sure the forces of democratic action have been silenced in Russia that there is nothing to worry about.

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Comments


Andy says:

In response to Mironov's suggestion, Putin turned around yesterday and said pretty bluntly that he doesn't believe the constitution should be changed to allow him to stay for a further term.

You could argue that he is still setting the stage for him to "reluctantly" stay on as President because it's what the Russian people desire, but I don't really think that's an option now.

But, presenting at least the illusion of democracy these days is good for business. There are plenty powerful people in Russia who would like to preserve that illusion, so they can continue to do business comfortably with the West, so I think that, even if he wanted to stay, Putin would be edged out.

I think Putin has recognised that this would be a battle he could not win, and he'll settle for a position that preserves some (perhaps even a lot) of his current influence. But he won't be in the Presidency post 2008.


La Russophobe says:

ANDY:

There seems to be a fascinating implication in your comment: Are you suggesting that Putin doesn't really rule Russia, but rather somebody (or somebodies) else does? If so, would you care to give the names of Russia's actual rulers? The world would like to know!

You don't comment on whether you think Putin stepping away from the presidency in 2008 would be a good or bad harbinger for democracy in Russia (and indeed for Russia itself). I'm curious to know, since that question is the actual point of this post. You seem to imply perhaps not, given your "illusion of democracy" remark. Of course, if Putin doesn't really rule Russia, but is a mere puppet of those who pull the strings and can push him aside if they choose no matter what public opinion says, then the question of the fate of democracy in Russia is pretty much a closed question I guess.

I'll take this opportunity to express my own view: I think it would be a disaster for the prospects of Russian democracy, and for the country itself, if Putin steps aside. I'd much prefer to see him hold on to power, by the most Byzantine methods possible. I'd take that as a sign the democracy might still have a chance in Russia. If he's able to walk away from formal power, take some position in the shadows and keep pulling the strings, that's perhaps the lowest moment in Russian history. Not that having Putin remain in power would be a good thing, of course. It would be a nightmare. But today's Russia isn't faced with happy choices.

When hearing people say Putin can't possibly stay in office after 2008, I can't help recalling how many people said Putin couldn't possibly still be president after the 2000 elections -- yet he was elected in a massive landslide on the first ballot, and in fact no really serious candidate even rose to oppose him. One shouldn't forget that Russia is always full of unpleasant surprises (or, looking at it another way, our analysis of Russia is always less than it could be).

You mention elite forces in Russia; I wonder about the Russian people. Obviously, they're far more important to the fate of Russian democracy, and the fate of Russia itself, than the elites. If they don't believe in democracy it won't happen no matter who rules Russia. Let's say Putin simply announces he'll run again, ignoring the Constitution -- similar to the way he simply announced he'd appoint Russia's governors from now on. Would a groundswell of the Russian public rise to block such action?






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