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Part II: What's Up with Iran and Russia?

Filed under: Middle East ~ Russia

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AHMADINEJAD: Why haven't you delivered our Uranium?
PUTIN: You shouldn't have Ahmadinejadized.
Source: Ellustrator.

Last week, we asked what readers thought of the current brouhaha over the Bushehr nuclear station Russia is building for Iran -- Russia has claimed Iran isn't making its payments and is threatening a pullout. Assuming the problems are not coming from Iran's side, we asked, what's the explanation? Over 120 votes were cast and the overwhelming majority felt that there weren't actually any problems, but rather only a publicity stunt designed to deflect Western criticism of Russia. The next most likely possibility, readers thought, was that Russia was fooling with Iran's head in order to maximize its influence. Few readers thought Russia had come to its senses on Iran or had never actually intended to make Iran a nuclear state and just duped Iran, and indeed recent news reports do seem to indicate that Iran and Russia are quickly making it up -- so the readership may well have pegged it correctly.

But just for the sake of argument, let's flip the coin: What if the problems are coming from Iran's side? Given Iran's lust for nukes, they'd have to be pretty serious, and therefore quite interesting. Three possibilities are evident: (1) Iran duped Russia, and never intended to allow anti-Muslim, Chechnya-bashing Russia to achieve deep influence over its energy sector, but just used Russia to get the ball rolling; (2) Despite oil revenues, Iran really is strapped for cash due to mismanagement; (3) Iran is in the throes of internal political chaos.

What's your view? We'd like to know! We welcome alternative theories in the comments section.

Assuming the Bushehr problems are coming from Iran's side, what's the reason?
Iran duped Russia
Iran is cash poor
Political chaos within Iran
  
Free polls from Pollhost.com

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Comments


Jeha says:

I think this is merely a sign of the Russians holding on for more money, but claiming Iran is not making regular payments.

In a previous case, the Russians held out for more money for some special valves that only they could provide. As now, they claimed late payment or non-payment, till the Iranians forked out more money. I also noted that one missile sale only went forward when the Iranians ordered the "chassis" that go with them. The Items delivered were new missiles mounted on some older, retrofit chassis.

The Russian strategy may be to use Iran's thirst for glory to fund their retooled industry; their old design houses are now designing and manufacturing more civilian products. At the present, they may see Iranian isolation as an opportuiniy to squeeze more funds.

On the long run, as Russia finds its "peace divident" from Iran, the Iranians are learning the hard way that playing great power politics is hard when you do not have your own home-grown R&D and industry.







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