Ukraine May Backslide In Just One Day

I think this conflict actually highlights how truly vibrant the democratic impulse in Ukraine is, unlike Russia. In Ukraine, you genuinely do have two clearly identifiable political camps struggling for power through elections. The only reason there is a problem is because Urkaine has an American-style system that makes it possible for the legislature to be controlled by one party and the presidency by the other. Urkaine's situation is no different than the times in America, like now, when both the Senate and the House are controlled by one party and the presidency by the other -- except that in Yanukovich's case, his party didn't get anything remotely like a majority in the legislative elections and must rely on a bizarre coalition. Given what is at stake, whether Ukraine will end up in the West's sphere of influence or Russia's, some amount of bedlam is to expected.

In Russia, by contrast, the legislature is dominated by support for the "president" because that president has wiped out the opposition parties and opposition media. Even if there were legislative opposition, the Russian president has usurped far more power, both legally and illegally, than his Ukrainian counterpart. You can call it "stability" that the Ukraine doesn't have, but what it really is is a dictatorship that dooms Russia to being a regressive state.

Let's also not forget that an attempt was made to kill Yushchenko once, or at least scare him out of the race, and that Yanukovich is a convicted criminal. Yushchenko is quite literally in a fight for his life. It's hardly an assault on democracy to call elections, even if the elections aren't specifically authorized by the Constitution. What is Yanukovich afraid of? That he'd lose them? In that case, who's the real anti-democrat?

Posted April 2, 2007 5:53 PM

I don't think it's Yushchenko's call for elections and dissolution of parliament that is the problem. Ukraine is democratic in that both vied for power through elections, but now you have a huge problem unlike what we have in the U.S. in that parliament and president are not just struggling, but openly disregarding the constitutional settings of the other. Yushchenko dissolves parliament, and what happen? Parliament keeps on operating like normal, but in fact not even normal, because they are at this very moment systematically turning back the clock on every reform passed in the last two years. We said that because of the Orange Revolution, the clock could never be turned back even if Yanukovich gained power again, but that certainly seems to be the case at this very moment.

I consider it a flaw in the structure of the country's constitutional system itself. The mixed presidential-parliamentary system only calls for trouble. Transition research has found that those countries who adopted parliamentary systems became more democratic and more free-market oriented, more quickly, while those adopting presidential systems quickly slid backwards. This system, based on trying to reconcile the two, was a terrible idea in the first place. There are too many overlapping constitutional boundaries and no way to determine whose right.

What this may come down to, if neither party gives in, is who controls what. Especially the security forces, because that's the only means by which to enforce either the decision to dissolve parliament or impeach the president.

Posted April 2, 2007 6:20 PM

There's no doubt you are right about the possiblity for the use of force. In fact, the situation is remarkably similar to what went on between Yeltsin and the Duma in 1993, also flouting the text of the Constitution. That came after Yeltsin won a popular referendum and the Duma's impeachment vote failed, and resulted in the actual bombing of the parliament building. New elections were held within months and the situation then stabilized.

It seems to me Yushchenko's move is the right one under the circumstances and shouldn't be viewed as a threat to democracy. If there's going to be a conflict, he's placed himself on the side of settling it through national elections, while the other side is seemingly in favor of settling it behind closed doors. That's not to say Yushchenko isn't partially to blame; an important reason this situation has come to a head is his squabble with Timoshenko.

Posted April 3, 2007 10:17 AM

The idea that a presidential style system causes backslide is rediculous. Full parlimentary systems are a disaster, and lead to populism and decay. I agree that the mix makes no sense, but a full up US style constitutional democracy is prove thus far to be the most stable system, IF you can keep the judiciary in check (which we in the US are failing to do).

Posted April 3, 2007 11:59 AM

Martin -- Are you aware of all the research and confirmation of what I just said? I am not talking about the United States or even developed countries for that matter. TRANSITIONAL countries have proven to be far more stable and much more apt to take on economically liberalizing measures than their presidential counterparts. The Baltics are a fantastic example. Central Asia and Latin America are another great example -- or how presidential systems in such countries have led to authoritarianism and centuries of stalemate.

I'm not just pulling this out of the air, which is what you seem to be doing. This is something taught in any first democratization course, and is well backed up by decades of research.

For simplicity's sake, here is the list based on likely success for transitional democracies:

1. Multi-party parliamentary
2. Two-party presidential
3. Two-party parliamentary
4. Multi-party presidential

Ukraine, alas, has a hyper-atrophied version of the last.

Posted April 3, 2007 12:06 PM

Jeez, Louise!
Like Orwell's sheep, the bleet du jour is "Orange good, Blue baaaad!"
Ukraine is a basketcase. This is a country without a banking system. People carry a shopping bag full of hrivnyas, greenbacks and euros. The only export income comes from the arms industry, centered in Donetsk, home of the Russophone Regions Party.
Ask any rank and file resident of Ukraine, whether self identified as Ukrainian or Russian and they will tell you that it is just one pack of wolves fighting another for the spoils of corruption. Yanukovych and Timoshenko are both tainted by criminal accusations.
Yulia had her chance. The only reforms that she successfully pursued were demogogic. Ukrainization has become the priority of the state. All schools in the country must now be conducted in Ukrainian, even the majority Russian areas. (Hardly a policy designed to foster harmony. Hardly a "democratic reform.") This policy reached its Kafkaesque zenith with the last parliamentary elections when all candidates' names were translated into Ukrainian: Russian Volkov = Ukrainian Vilkiv, thus creating more chaos, confusion and expense. (Imagine English only zealots in The States demanding that Giuliani be refered to as "Julian"?) Instead of relieving the beaurocratic burden on small business, the Yuschenko tenure has actually added a bunch of new mandates, and officials to bribe or otherwise propiate.
So, Yanukovych is peeling off delegates with promises. Isn't that what Pelosi successfully did with the recent "emergency" supplemental bill? Sheesh, that IS the way that democratic politics works.
Ukraine is a basketcase. The sooner that "democratic reformers" are held to even thirdworld standards by their cheerleaders in the west, the sooner the Ukrainian people might begin to strive for European standards.

Posted April 3, 2007 2:45 PM

Yes the European standard of the E.U. Where Bureaucrats' make the laws and regulations and all concept of voting for an representative government is replaced with representatives that can not change any E.U. Treaty or regulation.
Does not sound like democracy or a republic to me.

Posted April 3, 2007 3:02 PM

Bruce, it's just that Europe is where Ukraine is located. Joining the EU is exactly what the Orange people say that they want.
However, compared to Ukraine, the EU is libertarian paradise.

Posted April 3, 2007 3:16 PM

KONYOK:

Your suggestion that it is somehow unreasonable for Ukrainians to speak Ukrainian and to use their alphabet is quite bizarre and could not possibly come from anyone who holds Ukraine's best interests at heart. Most often, that kind of talk comes from a Russian imperialist. Hence, your suggestions are hard to take seriously.

English dominates the Internet. Russian is a language dying with its people (at the rate of 1 million per year). Shall we therefore make it mandatory for Russia to be bilingual in English?

What you choose to ignore is that the vast majority of Ukraine's current problems come from poverty, and that poverty was caused by years of Russian exploitation and oppression, including a famine that amounted to genocide and an aggressive attempt to destroy the Ukrainian language. What Ukrainians are arguing about right now is whether they'll go back to a state of subservience to Russia or have their own country.

Oh and, by the way: Many Europeans would consider Russia to be a "basket case" -- and the worst kind, one run by a proud KGB spy. At least Ukraine has managed to avoid that fate so far.

Posted April 3, 2007 5:21 PM

You're absolutely right. Russia is a basketcase as well. Sadly, with the con man Volodya Putin seated on the Tsar's throne, the opportunity for real reform has been kicked down the road for at least another decade.
The thing is that Russia is a basket case with oil.
Here's an example of the kind of problem that Ukraine is facing.
When Ukraine gained its independence from the Soviet Union it was necessary to improvise an entire library of laws to deal with things not addressed in the Soviet era law code. Prime example: hiring employees. In Soviet times everybody was employeed by the state. A large plurality in the Ukraine is still employed in state owned factories and other businesses. When laws governing employer-employee relations were promulgated, there was a deep seated suspicion of "capitalist exploitation" of the honest working class.
So, in Ukraine people working for small businesses must make a notarized contract (Ukrainians charmingly translate it as a "treaty") with the business and register it with the tax/social security agency.
This has to be done in person and involves at least a full day of waiting in a queue. There is no possiblity of making an appointment or registering on line or any western convenience like that. This must be done yearly and is a part of life.
Bear in mind there there is no clear line between Russian and Ukrainian. The dialects merge. Something like a half of Ukraine's population speaks Russian at home.
Since the Orange revolution, this registration must be submitted in Ukrainian. Ukrainian is a language that does NOT have a history of administrative and legal use. Because most of those kinds of words were foreign words adopted into Russian (like latin words in English) the Ukrainin Academy of Sciences decided to make new words from slavic roots - they are so adamant about not using Russian words - even words that were originally German or Frence or English.
This means that now there is an additional expense of having the yearly registration translated into proper Ukrainian before it can be submitted.
The Orange revolution has not made things easier. It has just replaced one silly set of obstacles to freedom for another.
The history of Ukraine is tragic and the crimes commited against Ukrainians by Russia and by the Communists are heart rending. But, silliness is silliness.
Those people need real reform.

Posted April 3, 2007 5:55 PM

KONYOK:

It's kind of hard to have "real reform" when your huge neighbor poisons the presidential candidate it doesn't favor in elections, seeks to destabilize your energy market and take many other steps designed to colonize you -- especially when you are already weakened by years of exploitation.

But despite all that, I think that "real reform" is what many Ukrainians are seeking. Others, however, are seeking to drag the country back into its past of miserable enslavement by Russia. So now they've obviously got to fight a war, perhaps a bloody war, in order to first decide whether they will be slaves or not. I think that you are mistaking the battles in that war for indications that the country is a "basket case." America had plenty of such indications in its history, particuarly when fighting wars, but it wasn't ever a basket case.

Frankly, given the abuse Ukraine has had to take and the pathetically lame level of support it is getting from the West, I'm amazed Ukrainians even have the strength to get out of bed in the morning.

Posted April 3, 2007 6:10 PM

Absolutely. The Orange revolution was necessary to check Putin's diktat. Yuschenko showed real courage at that time and then when Gazprom unilaterally raised gas prices.
But, the black and white narrative just doesn't fit.
Ukraine suffers from an incredible mix of post Soviet traumas, both as a state and as a population.
Perhaps easiest for westerners to overlook is that the borders of the country are not the product of an organic evolution and have no relationship with demographic realities. The solution for Russian irredentism surely isn't reverse colonization.
Consider Crimea. Capriciously transferred from Russia to Ukraine by Khruschev in 1955, it is 90% Russian and 10% Crimean Tatar. Ukrainian nationalism offers little to these people.
There may indeed be some people in Ukraine who really believe in western style reforms, but, one of the post Soviet traumas is a deep seated desire for the government to take care of the people. This translates to a sharing of the spoils. The argument is over who gets to divvy it up.
I had great hopes for the Orange revolution, but I haven't seen any reform, any proposal for reform or any discussion of meaningful reform.
I'm not altogether pessimistic, though. I think that the current power struggle is indeed a mile stone on the road to democracy. Nobody wants things to become violent. The Orange and the Blue are going to have to learn how to compromise with each other, and that's a good thing. A baby step.

Posted April 3, 2007 8:14 PM

Still you keep blabbering "what a wonderful exercise in democracy". You have always had trouble understanding totalitarian behaviour. I expected this to happen. I don't know how Yuschenko can win.

Posted April 3, 2007 10:19 PM

Who does?

Posted April 3, 2007 10:42 PM

There are very established rules regarding the unity of the block voting along party lines. It is clear that the Russophile forces have been corrupting this for some time with out right bribes - to the tune of several million$ per Rada vote.

The question here (as in the UK, Iran, Syria, and Georgia) is "Will Putin be stopped?"

Posted April 3, 2007 11:20 PM

i haven't been following ukraine politics lately. why is yanukovich still prime minister? didn't he get booted out in the "Orange Revolution" for rigging the elections?

Why is he PM again? did i miss something here?

are we headed for another Orange Revolution II? god, i hope not.

Posted April 4, 2007 1:40 AM

JOHN:

Yanukovich was booted out as president in the Orange Revolution, but his party got the most votes in the most recent legislative elections (though still only about 30%) and he formed a coalition that named him PM. The coalition was possible because of internal squabbling among the anti-Russia forces (and of course the nefarious involvement of Russia).

GEORGE:

I don't see that anyone in this thread has used the language you claim to be quoting. Tsk, tsk. Moreover, if you "expected" it, can you link to where you published your prediction?

Posted April 4, 2007 8:13 AM

KONYOK:

I hardly think there is any evidence of "reverse colonization" where Ukraine is concerned. To the contrary, the West has not exercised anything remotely like sufficent power on Ukraine's behalf to keep Russia from meddling in the country's internal affairs, and until Ukraine is freed from Russian interference it's impossible to judge their ability to build a state.

It's rather disappointing that you would abandon your "high hopes" after so little time has passed. Did you know that Abraham Lincoln abolished the writ of habeas corpus during the Civil War, 100 years after America was formed? Did you know that FDR rounded up Japanese Americans and interned them without trials during World War II? One must expect democracy to be messy, but when a country is clearly striving for it, one must always be hopeful. If you are justified in losing hope, it would be where Russia is concerned; there, we see no indication of genuine struggle for democratic progress on the part of the population, which blithely allows the regime to dominate civil discourse and crush opposition.

Posted April 4, 2007 12:36 PM

Mlle Russophobe:

To some extent you and I are speaking past each other. You seem to be thinking in terms of grand principles and I am concerned about more mundane day to day things.
The "Reverse colonization" is mostly the linguistic issue. By forcing the Ukrainian language on communities with no history of speaking Ukrainian, the state is causing more problems than it fixes. Aside from the emotional reaction, it adds another complication and expense to people's lives. As a result of the Orange revolution every transaction with officialdom must be conducted in Ukrainian, whereas before that the country was officially bilingual. This only profits the translators, who are in short supply and charge as much as a lawyer.
Lawyers, schoolteachers, doctors all must learn Ukrainian in order to continue their careers.
Remember, this is not a country with evolved borders like France or Portugal. The Soviet Central Committee decided them without regard to demographics. Self identified Russians are almost half of the population.
The reformers would have been much better served by reforming than by imposing feel good mandates. Instead of presenting an example to Russia, Ukraine has followed the same tired old central command model and strengthened Putin's hand as the "defender of the Russian diaspora."
Orange or Blue, Blue or Orange, all that these politicians really care about is the next round of privatization of state industries.

Posted April 5, 2007 3:58 PM

Ukraine has only been a democracy for one year. Its transition from a Presidential 'rule by decree' dictatorship to a Parliamentary 'rule of law' democracy has brought Ukraine in line with other European Counties all with the exception of Cyprus, use a parliamentary system of governance.

This is not a west versus Russia stereotype conflict. It is a battle for power between the President and the democratically elected Parliament. The principles of 'Rule of law' would dictate that the Constitutional Court should resolve the current crisis.

But there is ongoing concern that the Court will be paralysed with pressure being placed on Court by Yushchenko to either rule in his favour or to delay any ruling on the matter.

The longer the Court takes the better position the president will be.

There is every likely hood that should the court consider the issue based on the law as opposed to political outcomes it would have to rule the President's decree unconstitutional.

If the Court rules against the President and declares his decree illegal then the President will have to resign.

The world is watching and any delay in the Court's ruling will be seen as a failure of the Court system of itself, seriously undermining public confidence in Ukraine's governance.

In February, Olexander Moroz had warned of a plot by the President and the Opposition to destablise Ukraine's Parliamentary system with the view of forcing Ukraine back to the polls.

http://washingtontimes.com/op-ed/20070407-095754-3144r.htm

Washington Times Editorial: The State Department called for the Ukrainian government to reach a peaceful solution that is "in accordance with their laws and their constitution." When the Ukrainian Constitutional Court issues its ruling, it's important for the United States to maintain its approach, even if the ruling doesn't favor Mr. Yushchenko.

Posted April 8, 2007 3:03 PM

Monday, April 09, 2007
PACE: Ukrainian president had not enough legal grounds to dissolve the parliament
Renate Wohlwend Parliamentary Assembly Council of Europe (PACE) monitoring committee co-reporter Renate Wohlwend believes that the Ukrainian president had not enough legal grounds to dissolve the parliament

Source: RegNum Also Ukrayinska Pravda

The announcement by PACE is a serious blow to Yulia Tymoshenko and the President's campaign for fresh Parliamentary Elections. PACE had no alternative but to express its concerns over the constitutionality of the President's decree dismissing Ukraine's democratically elected Parliament. The dismissal of a Parliament by a head of state sets a very dangerous precedence that effects not just Ukraine but also Western democracy. Most Western parliamentary democracies have very strict limitations on the right of a head of state to dismiss a parliament.

Yulia Tymoshenko had hoped that Europe would back the oppositions call for fresh elections. It has not.

PACE has made the correct call. The actions of the President is a last gasp of a failed Presidency. The consequences of his actions seriously undermines Ukraine's democratic development and rule of law.

Media reports over the weekend have indicated that the President had met (in secrete) with members of the Constitutional Court on Friday in an attempt to influence the determination of the Court. Yushchenko wants the Court to defer its consideration and determination no the governments appeal. The President is of the false belief that if the Court delays its decision long enough the elections process will be secured and the President if need be will declare a state of emergency if protests continue.

There are also reports that the President is ordering the Military to take control of the Parliament should the conflict continue and elections are not held.

The Constitutional Court must not bow to pressure from the Office of the President. It must rule on the validity of the President's actions according to rule of law. Any different or delay in it's decision would results in ongoing conflict and division.

-- Extract Copy of News aralce published on regnum ---

“The main cause of the presidential decision [to dissolve the parliament] was his attempt to cease MPs changing their factions. I am afraid, legally, it is not enough to dissolve the parliament,” Renate Wohlwend said. The PACE co-reporter expressed hope that Ukraine’s Constitutional Court would speed up its consideration of the question whether Yushchenko’s decree was constitutional. “I am afraid, if it takes months for the Constitutional Court to rule whether the president was right or wrong, clashes in the streets can start between those, who support the opposition, and those, who support Yanukovich,” Renate Wohlwend believes.

According to her, early elections will not help in settling the problem. “If the Constitutional Court decides to support the elections, they must be conducted. After the elections, Ukraine will be brought back to 2-3 years backwards in development of its democratic institutions and establishment of the rule of law,” Ms. Wohlwend said. “If the decree is pronounced unconstitutional, President Yushchenko will have to resign,” the PACE co-reporter believes.

On April 2, the power crisis in Ukraine developed into a new stage. President Viktor Yushchenko signed a decree to dissolve the Supreme Rada and appointed a date for the early elections, May 27. The parliament and the government agreed to obey the decree, only if the Constitutional Court decides the decree does not breach the constitution. On April 5, Ukraine’s Constitutional Court confirmed that it opened the case on determining whether President Viktor Yushchenko’s decree to dissolve the Supreme Rada was constitutional and pronounced the case urgent.

Posted April 9, 2007 12:51 PM

Well, here we go with the spin.

A reporter from PACE gets to decide legal questions in Ukraine?

Yushchenko putting pressure on the Constitutional Court?

What a hoot!

The Party of Rossiya has gone into overdrive to avoid elections. That includes paying poor people 150 hryvnias per day to wave blue party flags around Kyiv, in front of bad music concerts.

That includes coming out with all sorts of accusations about Yushchenko putting pressure on the court.

And - a long-time favorite - whining about language.

That goes with another long-time favorite - there is no difference between Ukrainian and Russian.

No, wait, Ukrainian is just a sort of low-live hillbilly dialect of Russian.

No, wait, only low-life uneducated people speak Ukrainian.

No, wait, the sovok union, get this, "preserved" the Ukrainian language and Ukrainian culture.

Poor little schizoid confused russkie sovoks.

Poor, poor, russkie sovoks, crying, moaning, groaning, agonizing, and above all LYING about how they are not permitted to speak Russian in Ukraine.

It's a nice political issue for all those little russkie sovoks in Crimea and in Donetsk, who want to re-build the Russian empire, in any form whatsoever.

Yushchenko's speech around Easter had some very significant points -

First, there is a need to clean the Temple of the pharisees and the moneychangers.

Second, a "guided" democracy, complete with stacked decks for cheating and theatrical appurtenances - that's not for Ukraine.

He was, of course, referring to Rossiya, which, in classic sovok tradition, think that it can simply propagandize and public relation its way past the people, often with the help of American PR firms.

Not so in Ukraine.

Lutsenko is right - these people are dinosaurs, and their only instinct is to revert to sovok-style tactics. Lots of managed demonstrations, lots of propaganda, lots of threats, lots of firing people left and right.

They have even applied to Austria as a means of avoiding elections.

They are TERRIFIED of elections.

For good reason.

PS La Russophobe, I very much appreciate your insightful comments.

Posted April 10, 2007 11:32 AM

Oh yeah, I forgot.

The Party of Rossiya has now absolutely confirmed that it was on its way to a big power grab.

The whole idea was to grab 450 deputies, by bribing them, not just 300, a 2/3 constitutional majority.

With Kinakh, they offered him a slot as Economics Minister, plus the usual jobs for family and friends, as with the 11 others.

And what were they "working" for, one might ask? Why, for the "good of the country."

That manifests itself in the form of laws which favor oligarchs.

And in Yanukovych's son, a billiard player, occupying a seat in parliament.

They claim that in 2 years they improved the standard of living.

But, as one commenter on Ukrainian Pravda said, "I don't know in which cities that occurred."

And, as another poster said, they certainly improved Moroz's standard of living when they bribed him to come over to their side with the speakership and goodness knows what else.

Now, they are crying "stabilnost" - just like the people who pine for Stalin.

That means that everything may be miserable, with a few apparatchiks at the top living a good life, complete with dachas, but at least we have no freedom of speech, no freedom of assembly, no rights of any kind, and there's a KGB Gestapo police state holding guns to our heads.

And, the good news - under "stabilnost," at least everyone is miserable, and noone dares to do anything for free, open, honest and fair government.

Well, not everyone is miserable - the few and the wealthy enjoy themselves very much, go to Monaco for gambling, to England and France for holidays, and they pay poor people a few hryvnias to wave blue party flags on the street, so they can keep their wealth and power.

All for the "good of the country."

That's what the National Coalition of dis-Unity offers.

That's why they're TERRIFIED of elections.

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The Parliamentary Council of Europe in its report dated April 17, 2007 recommended that Ukraine adopt a full parliamentary system.

Again if Ukraine wants to be a part of Europe then it should be adopting European Standards not the USA.

I doubt very much in the absence of broad support that Ukraine will turn back the clock
and democratic reforms and support a return to teh dark days of presidential rule.

The Presidential system had failed Ukraine and arguable the root cause for ongoing political divisions.

Every other former Soviet nation (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine's nearest neighbors(Poland Slovakia and Romanian)are all successful Parliamentary democracies. Had Ukraine adopted a parliamentary democracy at teh time of its declaration of independence it would be far more "democratic" and stable then it has been in the past.

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