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 Three cheers for our side! Viktor Yushchenko, and the forces of democracy led by his ally Julia Timoshenko, have emerged the winners in Ukraine! When pro-Russian forces sought to form illegal coalitions and block Yushchenko's pro-West administration from moving Ukraine into the fold of democratic nations (hence, away from Russia), Yushchenko boldly called their bluff and demanded immediate elections. The pro-Russians took to the streets seeking to block the move, and now they've capitulated. Blogger Mark MacKinnon, journalist, Ukraine expert and author of the upcoming book The New Cold War, reports:
The standoff is over for now, and Viktor Yushchenko appears to have won the test of nerves against his arch-rival, Viktor Yanukovich. The two men announced today that they have agreed to hold new parliamentary elections in the near future, something Yushchenko has been demanding since dissolving parliament last month amid a bribery scandal. So far, no date has been set, but Yushchenko said today that the vote would be held within 60 days. July 8 is the best guess of some people in the know. Why did Yanukovich throw in his cards? Because his "Blue Revolution" on the streets of Kyiv was a failure. The demonstrations on Independence Square were lifeless affairs, and as word got out that most of the protestors were being paid to participate, the farce became more of an embarassment to Yanukovich than a tool for pressuring Yushchenko.
More after the jump.
Eurasia Daily Monitor states:
Once seen as a lame duck, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko now is out-maneuvering the Anti-Crisis coalition (ACC) and the government of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. During the last week the president has reappointed Syatoslav Piskun as prosecutor, removed the deputy head of the Constitutional Court and a second member of the Court by presidential decree, and appointed a loyalist, Stepan Havrysh, to the Court. He also issued a decree rescheduling early parliamentary elections from May 27 to June 24. The Tymoshenko bloc is banking on increasing its support to the 30% mark by attracting Socialist voters and increasing its support in eastern and southern Ukraine. Our Ukraine is likely to improve its support beyond that of 2006 (14%) but will be unlikely to regain its 2002 support of 24%. This is because of three factors. First, Yushchenko's ratings have doubled in the last month, putting him for the first time ahead of Tymoshenko in the polls. Yushchenko will use a successful outcome to the crisis to re-launch his bid for a second presidential term in the 2009 elections. Prior to the crisis all observers had written off his chances of winning a second term. Second, Our Ukraine is establishing a mega-bloc consisting of itself, the Ukrainian Rightists, and the Yuriy Lutsenko bloc. Third, Our Ukraine has been reinvigorated as a national democratic party now that it has returned it to its more successful 2002 composition.
Betraying his hand, a bitterYanukovych said the parliamentary election would show which camp has more popular support. "Those who like elections, who initiated them, will get an answer from you about who today must be in power in Ukraine," he declared to his supporters. Obviously, he's not among those who like elections -- and the same can be said for the malignant forces in the Kremlin that support him.
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Comments
elmer says:
I am not one to throw cold water on the news of snap elections in Ukraine.
However, I think there is a bit more to this.
First - as the Council of Europe has previously noted during their meetings this year, this was a crisis in a democracy, and not a democracy in crisis.
Ukraine had already chosen a democracy - but, as the Council of Europe has noted, it is flawed.
http://assembly.coe.int/Main.asp?link=/Documents/WorkingDocs/Doc07/EDOC11255.htm
Second - the "Blue" demonstrations in the streets were indeed pitiful. A bunch of oligarchs in control of the Party of Regions paid people very poor, unemployed people about $20 a day to come to Kyiv and to wave blue flags.
And everyone knew it. And, everyone noted the sad, sad condition of the people, young and old, who waved the flags listlessly in front of stages set up for the occasion.
In the meantime, some rather vile oligarchs sat back, laughing up their sleeves, drinking vodka and smoking cigars, and thinking "what a small investment in return for keeping stolen billions" (through prior privatizations.
But that's not what did it.
Third - The Constitutional Court consists of 18 judges, 6 appointed by the President, 6 by the parliament, and 6 by a council of judges.
All of a sudden there were reports of "political pressure" on the judges in a Court which had literally done nothing for 8 months, and which prior to that time had not even been constituted, because the Party of Regions blocked its formation.
But whining about political pressure is nothing new in Ukraine.
Everyone has something on everyone else in Ukraine, and it's just a matter of timing as to when to use it.
And, one of the Judges got caught. Susan Stanik's mother mysteriously received $12 million worth of property, for no apparent reason.
The Prosecutor General's office did nothing about it, not surprisingly, because the previous Prosecutor General was "in the bag" for the Party or Regions, as was Stanik.
She was a Kuchma appointee, as was the other guy that President Yushchenko sacked, Pshenychny (tranlates to "Wheat").
With those 2 gone, the Court was not longer in the bag.
Fourth - Yushchenko got rid of the previous Prosecutor General, and brought back a Kuchma guy, Piskun. However, Piskun seems to have parted ways, sort of, with the Party of Regions, so he was no longer "in the bag" for the Party of Regions.
The replacement judges were also former Kuchmites. But, for one reaons or another, they are no longer "in the bag" for the Party of Regions.
Fifth - the Central Election Committee had 4 or 5 of its members suddenly "take sick." One of them healed up miraculously and came back, but the others remained in the hospital.
The Party of Regions announced that there was no money for elections.
But, ahead of elections, they have increased wages, as well as pensions to pensioners.
But that's not what did it.
Sixth - Ukraine's parliament is simply a collection of oligarchs. As the Wall Street Journal noted about the Orange Revolution, it's the millionaires versus the billionaires.
And Yushchenko managed to convince the right number of oligarchs that it was in their best interests for Yanukovych and his group of oligarchs not to control everything, as they had been trying to do by bribing deputies to come over to the majority colaition.
Quite simply - that's the key.
Seventh - Lutsenko had gone directly to the people, with his "National Self-Defense" movement - and had attracted quite large numbers of people throughout the country, even in Donetsk Mafia territory.
This, of course, alarmed the Party of Regions and the Donetsk Mafia.
So the government conducted ealry morning raids on Lutsenko, on made-up charges, and took away his passport.
Thank goodness for freedom of the press.
If the "pro-democracy" forces hold together, then that will be excellent for Ukraine in the upcoming elections.
And, indeed, a "mega-bloc" has been announced, headed by Our Ukraine and Lutsenko's National Self-Defense parties.
But Tymoshenko is still wavering as to whether to join that bloc, despite nice sounds previously about joining it.
If she decides to go it alone, then there is a danger of splitting the pro-democratic vote, which will be to the advantage of the Party of Regions and the Donetsk Mafia.
One can only hope that the Orange Coalition, including Tymoshenko, has learned from the mistakes in 2004 and 2006, and that they stick together.
In the meantime, the Party of Regions and their allies are robbing the country blind, with all sorts of rigged privatization sales, and through all sorts of other mechanisms.
It's very ugly.
But now, at least, the people know it.
In Russia, the people have decided to be treated like idiots.
I don't think that's so in Ukraine - but we will find out.
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