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Pooty-Poot Wants his Mommy

Filed under: Russia

180px-Putin.jpgIt was not a great week for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. First the G-8 gathering in Germany piled on the criticism of his anti-democratic moves, then not only did the U.S. reject his proposal to place its missile defense system in Azerbaijan but Iran immediately stabbed him the back, announcing that it viewed the system as a threat to its security and claiming the Kremlin had already backed down on the installation. And then, showing clearly that Russian can be brought to heel with a sharp rap on the nose, Captain's Quarters reported that the second phase of Russia's response to the Bush plan to install defensive missile systems in Eastern Europe also blew up in Putin's face, and he immediately backed down again:

Vladimir Putin has tried his best to fight the missile shield the US wants to create for Europe against the threat of Iranian attack. The Russian president has both fallen back on Cold War threats against Europe and the US, and also tried to divert the effort by offering Azerbaijan as a base -- but under Russian control. Neither have worked to intimidate the US or its European allies, and now Russia appears to have shifted into a less-antagonistic tone:
Russia dropped its threat to aim nuclear weapons at European cities yesterday in an abrupt change of tactics after weeks of Cold War-style brinkmanship. Sergei Ivanov, the hawkish deputy prime minister who is seen as a possible successor to President Vladimir Putin, said that only the sites in Poland and the Czech Republic where the United States wanted to erect an anti-missile system would be targeted. Commentators suggested that the Kremlin was trying to lower the rhetoric ahead of a crucial meeting between Mr Putin and President George W Bush in Maine early next month.
The Russians have fallen back on an old Soviet habit: rewriting history. Eleven days ago, Putin very clearly stated that Russia would "of course" return to Cold War times of targeting major European cities, if the US, Poland, and the Czech Republic built the missile shield. Now the Russians say that they never meant to threaten all of Europe -- but they did nothing over the last eleven days to clarify that until now. What changed? NATO met this week to discuss the new threat. Apparently the Russians didn't care for the consequences of a NATO response and decided to back down somewhat from their blustering. The Russians have a first-class missile system, but otherwise their military has serious infrastructure problems and they don't have the economy to fix it in a hurry. The Russians can't afford another 1980s-style arms race.

As if all this were not enough, a prestigious international ratings agency found Moscow was the dead last among major cities of the world as a place to do business.

Europe is crucial to combatting the rise of the Neo-Soviet regime in Russia, and must draw an important lesson from this experience. Russia is neither militarily nor economically in any position to confront either Europe or the U.S., much less the NATO alliance, and despite his oft-crazed behavior Dictator Putin is not foolish enough to think otherwise. If we call his bluff, we can hold him in check. Some American leaders, especially John McCain, clearly understand this. As the presidential election cycle heats up, we must make sure they all do.

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Comments


Cory says:

Hi Kim,

I've posted before and I'm a fan of your writing style and devotion, but I think that the past 10 days or so have been quite successful for Russia and Putin.

His Azerbaijan proposal simply stunned the U.S. and Bush was at a loss for words. Since then, several European politicos have gone on record backing Azerbaijan as the ABM site and will equate any American refusal of the plan as being duplitious.

After the G8, the St. Petersburg Economic Forum took place. I specifically remember the CEOs of BP, Barclays, and Total saying good things about the Russian economic climate and the investment situation in Russia, but basically everyone had good things to say!

While the St. Petersburg economic forum was taking place, Kasparov and his out-of-touch-with-the-common-Russian political extremists demonstrated without disturbance, as was duly noted in the western press. But once again their numbers were quite minuscule and their extremism shows no signs of support with a Russian population happy with the growing stability and prosperity, Russia's stronger position in the world, and its resolve to stand-up to the American military state that has committed crimes against humanity in Iraq and Afghanistan, spied on its own people, and set-up CIA torture camps in Romania and Poland (the list goes on and on, but you get my point!).

Meanwhile, Yuscshenko and Saakashvili both visited with Putin during a CIS conference that was also taking place and I was struck by Saakashvili's cooperation with Putin and the warm words they exchanged.

Finally, Lukoil signed a deal to explore for oil and gas in Turkmenistan and Russian cosmonauts ingeniusly resolved a computer problem in outer space with jumper cables.

In the U.S., Barry Bonds is closing in on Hank Aaron's home run record in a sport plagued by steroid abuse, Lindsey Lohan's in rehab, and Paris Hilton's in jail.


Cory from Brooklyn


La Russophobe says:

CORY:

You're comments and insights are always welcome, to say nothing of your compliments, however I assume you don't feel that you are the ultimate arbiter of whether Russia is successful or not.

Your analysis is somewhat imcomplete. You've overlooked the fact that over the past ten days Russia has had a net population loss of about 25,000 people. You've ignored the fact that it's received a lower score on the FP failed states index than China

http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=229&Itemid=366

and you've ignored the increasingly strong anti-Russia rhetoric that Putin's policies have generated all across Europe and in the U.S. Nobody who counts in either region has supported Putin, and his pals in the Bush adminstration have repudiated Putin's ideas, saying the U.S. will go ahead with its own plan and forcing Russia into a new arms race it can't possibly win with an average wage of $3 per hour.

Georgia can afford to be generous with Russia since it has scored a massive victory over Russia in the recent confrontation, and Russian forces are being driven out of Georgia without a shot being fired.

Ukraine's pro-Russia protesters have humiliated themselves in their recent attempts to support the PM over the President, capitulating to the pro-U.S. election demand.

Russia now stands totally isolated, without allies, and facing renewed NATO efforts to confront and contain, which will place unbearable burdens on its economy, which is utterly dependent upon the price of fossil fuels. Russia is suffering massive population loss, all manner of social maladies, and worst of all the restoration of creeping dictatorship.

If you find grounds for optimism in that, based on the fact that American baseball has troubles, you sound like (no offense intended) a neo-Soviet stooge churning out hte same kind of blind propaganda that destroyed the USSR and will do the same to Russia.


Michel says:

Well, I would side with Kim on this one.

Cory writes that: "CEOs of BP, Barclays, and Total saying good things about the Russian economic climate and the investment situation in Russia, but basically everyone had good things to say!" Given the authoritarian nature of Putin and the existing political climate, who in their right mind would say anything negative about Russia in public? At this point, the CEO of BP would likely say that the moon was made of blue cheese if he thought that is what Putin wanted to hear. As it stands, Russian authorities are still "deciding" whether or not to revoke TNK-BP's license license for the Kovykta gas field in Russia. If the license is revoked, BP risks losing billions in investment as TNK-BP is BP's subsidiary in Russia. It will be interesting to hear after the decision has been officially announced, and BP likely loses its license, whether its CEO will still be saying that Russia is a good place to invest.

Putin's offer of "sharing" it's radar in Azerbaijan was a surprise, but somewhat comparable to those wonderful offers you get by e-mail that sound so good until you read the fine print. Within days, you could read every pundit saying why Putin's offer was a lousy one: it is not even clear that the radar is even in working operation let alone how reliable it is. Plus, it would be the first target of the Iranians if they were going to launch an attack on Europe or the United States.

Finally, Cory where do you get your information that "the Russian population [is] happy with the growing stability and prosperity." My friends and relatives in Russia wouldn't necessarily agree. The rich are having a wonderful time in Russia, but the lower classes are faced with inflation and stagnating economies. If you travel outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg (i.e. most of Russia) you will find a small happy and wealthy elite surrounded by masses are doing their best to scrape by. They are happy that things are not getting worse (i.e. that it is not quite as chaotic as it was under Yeltsin), but they are far from happy. Also, if Russia can barely pay its meager pensions when oil prices are at record levels, what will it do should oil prices drop or production decline? Putin's popularity would quickly dissipate if he could not afford pensions and paychecks.

The main problem with Russia is that is a very one-dimensional "great" power. It is trying to leverage oil and gas into superpower status, but it won't succeed if that is all it has to offer the world. If superpower status required was lots of oil, then Saudi Arabia should be leading the world community and its economy should be the richest. Plus, Russia must not forget that it is dependent on Europe. What would happen if Russia stopped exporting natural gas to Europe? Russia would lose billions, pensions and salaries would go unpaid, and Russians would have to live without their Sony televisions and imported foods from Europe and elsewhere. Europe, would feel the pain, but would quickly find suppliers elsewhere leaving Russian producers in the lurch.


Cory says:

Kim, thanks for the reply.

You make many good points of course and your passion toward your viewpoint really deserves an applause (as does your blog's visitor statistics!). Anyway, I am in no mood to argue right now, so I will leave it at that -- at least a relatively dissenting opinion has been made.

Just one final point that I missed making above regarding Russia's accomplishments of the past week and I think this is something that has gone under-reported in the press:

Last Thursday, Israel agreed to hand over to Russia a few buildings in Jerusalem that previously belonged to the Russian church. This might seem like nothing to some, but I support strong Russian-Israeli ties, being a fan of both countries, and this is a VERY important breakthrough in my opinion. So I am very happy that Russia and Israel seem to be coming closer together. (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070614/67224743.html)

Also, Russophobes are very right to point out Russia's population crisis, but the reports are beginning to turn around (here is a positive report: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070605/66695205.html). Albeit the turnaround is slow, I think that it's showing some legs. Fairly or not, many Russians today blame Yeltin's policies for this population crisis and are ready to credit Putin if the turnaround is for real; Putin will be credited for not only righting Russia's economic ship, but its population ship as well.

Didn't mean to type this much again but I got carried away.

Cordially,

Cory


Michel says:

Well, I would side with Kim on this one.

Cory writes that: "CEOs of BP, Barclays, and Total saying good things about the Russian economic climate and the investment situation in Russia, but basically everyone had good things to say!" Given the authoritarian nature of Putin and the existing political climate, who in their right mind would say anything negative about Russia in public? At this point, the CEO of BP would likely say that the moon was made of blue cheese if he thought that is what Putin wanted to hear. As it stands, Russian authorities are still "deciding" whether or not to revoke TNK-BP's license license for the Kovykta gas field in Russia. If the license is revoked, BP risks losing billions in investment as TNK-BP is BP's subsidiary in Russia. It will be interesting to hear after the decision has been officially announced, and BP likely loses its license, whether its CEO will still be saying that Russia is a good place to invest.

Putin's offer of "sharing" it's radar in Azerbaijan was a surprise, but somewhat comparable to those wonderful offers you get by e-mail that sound so good until you read the fine print. Within days, you could read every pundit saying why Putin's offer was a lousy one: it is not even clear that the radar is even in working operation let alone how reliable it is. Plus, it would be the first target of the Iranians if they were going to launch an attack on Europe or the United States.

Finally, Cory where do you get your information that "the Russian population [is] happy with the growing stability and prosperity." My friends and relatives in Russia wouldn't necessarily agree. The rich are having a wonderful time in Russia, but the lower classes are faced with inflation and stagnating economies. If you travel outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg (i.e. most of Russia) you will find a small happy and wealthy elite surrounded by masses are doing their best to scrape by. They are happy that things are not getting worse (i.e. that it is not quite as chaotic as it was under Yeltsin), but they are far from happy. Also, if Russia can barely pay its meager pensions when oil prices are at record levels, what will it do should oil prices drop or production decline? Putin's popularity would quickly dissipate if he could not afford pensions and paychecks.

The main problem with Russia is that is a very one-dimensional "great" power. It is trying to leverage oil and gas into superpower status, but it won't succeed if that is all it has to offer the world. If superpower status required was lots of oil, then Saudi Arabia should be leading the world community and its economy should be the richest. Plus, Russia must not forget that it is dependent on Europe. What would happen if Russia stopped exporting natural gas to Europe? Russia would lose billions, pensions and salaries would go unpaid, and Russians would have to live without their Sony televisions and imported foods from Europe and elsewhere. Europe, would feel the pain, but would quickly find suppliers elsewhere leaving Russian producers in the lurch.


Cory says:

Michel, a real quick reply about Russian economic prosperity:

- a CNN article today (http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/06/18/chance.intro/):

"There is a growing middle class, as wealth once held only by a few oligarchs begins to trickle down to ordinary Russians. Within a few decades, at current rates of growth, Russia could emerge as a powerful economy, with Europe's biggest market." (true that the rest of the article is negative)

- and an Economist article today (http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9354403):

"Russian economic growth hit a six-year high of 7.9% year on year in the first quarter, propelled by strong growth in construction, manufacturing and trade. The result is particularly impressive in light of the small contribution made by oil and gas."

"Two themes permeate the data. First, investment is very strong and this is powering economic growth... Second, household consumption is buoyant; it played a stronger role than investment in the 11.6% increase in domestic demand recorded year on year in the first quarter of 2007."

"Still, in the context of the near stagnation of hydrocarbons output, Russia’s growth performance is surprisingly robust and well above the long-term trend rate."

Sorry do not have time to talk further, but I agree that it's still not completely right. There is a lot of things that still need to be done.

Regards,

Cory


Michel says:

Cory,

The very articles you cite don't paint quite the rosy picture you present:

The Economist concludes the piece you cite by writing:

"As a result, full-year GDP growth this year is likely to be within the official government forecast of 6.5-7%. Faster economic growth is unlikely while energy output growth remains sluggish and while Russia’s large-scale investment needs are not--even now--being fully met. A range of problems in the business environment and competitiveness-eroding real rouble appreciation are further obstacles in the path of Russia’s economy. Still, in the context of the near stagnation of hydrocarbons output, Russia’s growth performance is surprisingly robust and well above the long-term trend rate."

Simply put, the growth in GDP was surprising, but won't be maintained without investment and addressing the problems facing the Russian economy such as corruption, competitiveness, etc...

As for CNN, they are mainly negative and they write: "But this remains a nation fraught with problems and uncertainty. The fast pace of economic growth has left a dangerously wide gap between rich and poor. Infrastructure, like transport systems, hospitals and schools, still suffer from acute under investment."

They then cite the same litany of problems that are aways cited: corruption, lack of transparency, etc...

They take an optimistic note in their conclusion writing that "It is a country of great potential" but ALL countries have great potential. Potential, like hope, is endless.


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