Chavismo Without Chavez?
Filed under: Venezuela
The former foreign minister of Mexico, Jorge Castaneda, now a political scientist at NYU, has a piece in the New Republic analyzing Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. He believes we will now see increased radicalism and recalcitrance from Chavez, including going ahead with planned reforms regardless of the popular will, and that this opens a window of opportunity for Chavez opponents:
According to most accounts, both [former defense Minister General] Baduel and the military high command forced Chavez to accept his defeat under certain conditions, and threatened to remove him if he refused. One can easily contemplate a scenario whereby many chavistas would prefer to remain in power, pursue both the socialist and populist policies of the past few years, continue to considerably enrich themselves, and maintain more independence from Washington than in the past, but without the endless domestic and foreign conflicts generated by their current leader's personality and excesses. They might prefer to follow the path of what many are calling "chavismo without Chavez." This course is all the more likely if it turns out that the Caracas caudillo simply cannot sit still or remain silent. The opposition's victory on December 2 ushered in a new stage in Venezuelan--and Latin American--politics. But it did not determine where things will head. Much will depend on what the Venezuelan people decide--but part of the likely upheavals will also stem from what the rest of the region, Europe, and the United States do. For the moment, they do not seem to have a clue about what to do with Chavez.
Will this be yet another foreign policy opportunity missed by the Bush administration as it continues to obsess over the Middle East?