Publius Pundit

« Previous · Home · Next »

Time to Put the Screws to Mr. Putin

Filed under: Central Asia ~ Russia

Writing on EurasiaNet, Professor Stephen Blank of the U.S. Army war college points out that NATO has a massive strategic opportunity in Turkmenistan that it must not let slip through its fingers. The nation's dictator Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov is currently casting about for alternative markets for his country's massive exports of natural gas, gas which in the past was being sold to Russia at below market rates (the height of hypocrisy, as Russia begins to demand market rates from Ukraine and Belarus):

Russia cannot meet its domestic demand or its export obligations to CIS and European Union states with its own gas production, it must have Turkmen imports to keep its economic model viable. The Kremlin has hitherto been able to buy Turkmen exports at bargain-basement prices, and then provide it to its own subsidized market, and to similarly subsidized CIS markets. Russia uses much of its own domestically produced gas for export to the EU, which pays top euro for it. If Moscow can no longer have cheap Turkmen gas, it will face a variety of unsavory choices: it will either have to raise heavily subsidized domestic prices to global market levels, an option that the Kremlin is loathe to embrace; the Russian government could also reform its economy, which, self evidently, is a no less distasteful option than raising gas prices; or worse yet, Moscow could reduce foreign sales to meet domestic demand.

Blank points out that "Russia is very good at playing the bluffing game, so few people realize that the Russian government is sweating buckets. But the reality is that Moscow, increasingly desperate to preserve its status quo, is throwing money at Turkmenistan in the hope of buying Ashgabat's continuing loyalty." The Turkmen ruler is no longer inclined to allow his country to be victimized by Russia in this manner. Blank notes cuttingly: "At the very least, Berdymukhamedov's independence is a sign of Moscow's weakness, an indicator that Vladimir Putin's leverage is slipping. No longer can the diminutive Russian leader try to throw one of his patented glares at a Central Asian leader like Berdymukhamedov, and induce a blink. The man of the year in 2007 could well experience some setbacks in 2008." Diminutive. Ouch.

Russia doesn't have sufficient uranium or natural gas resources to cash the checks the Kremlin's big mouth is writing. The West must not fail to maximize its opportunity here. It must show Russia that its absurd arrogance over its imaginary energy leverage must end, here and now, or Russia will suffer dire consequences.

Social Bookmarking:
Del.icio.us this del.icio.us | digg this digg | Add to Technorati technorati | StumbleUpon Toolbar stumble upon | Furl this furl | Reddit this reddit

Comments


pick a story says:

Kim

You really need to pick a coherent storyline.

Either your "hero" Edward Lucas is right and Russia is minutes away from throttling Europe with an airtight noose of oil and natural gas, OR this chap from the Army War College is right and Russia is incompetent and on the verge of completely failing as an energy exporter.

Which is it? Is Russia "winning" the energy politics gambit, as Edward Lucas says in his new book, or is it about to suffer total and humiliating defeat? It can't be both


La Russophobe says:

You really need to learn how to read.

The storyline is that Russia is weak and vulnerable, so that immediate action is possible.

Further, it's that Russia's intentions are malignant and neo-Soviet, so that immediate action is necessary, lest it become strong and dangerous (as the USSR and Nazi Germany did).

The Kremlin's sycophants, like you, of course, want it both ways: You want Russia weak and pathetic so there's no reason for intervention, yet powerful and entitled to G-8 membership and international influence.

Can't you get your storyline just a bit coherent? And your reading skills above the first grade?


no you do says:

Kim, I can read just fine and, like the highly trained propagandist you are, you completely skipped over what I said and instead constructed an easily defeated straw man.

You run, at last count, three blogs: Publius Pundit, LaRacist (sorry, I mean to write LaRussophobe), and your "analysis" at Pajamas Media. I treat these blogs are a coherent whole since you run all of them and you constantly link to each of them.

Several times you have featured the writings of Edward Lucas, someone who you have repeatedly called a "hero." Your "hero" argues quite forcefully in his new book that Russia is "winning" (his words, not mine) the energy politics struggle.

The author you quote from above argues the exact opposite: that Russia's energy influence, such as it is, is a paper tiger that will soon be proved as such. (given what I know about Russian energy, this is a very real possibility)

So, which is it? Is your "hero" Edward Lucas lying when he says that Russia is "winning" or is "near victory" (his words and his analysis, not mine) in using its energy as a political weapon, or is he just plain wrong?

For that matter, what do you think? Is Russia close to achieving energy hegemony over the pitiful little Europeans, or is it a bankrupt state that is punching far above its weight and will soon be humbled?


La Russophobe says:

Russian isn't a race, it's a nationality you illiterate baboon. Did it ever occur to you that you're directing towards me EXACTLY the same type of attitude you complain I am directing towards Russia?

Perhaps not. I doubt much at can occur to a mind as vapid and vacuous as yours.

The quote above clearly states that Russia is winning the energy war, because it has a chokehold on Turkmen gas. But it points out that we have the opportunity to break that hold, as Lucas urges us to do, and I second the motion.

You haven't spent even a few seconds thinking about the sheer nonsense you write before publishing it. I have three blogs, as you note, and, by my count, you have none. Perhaps these two facts are related.

Think, then write, little boy. Or, if you like, keep on dancing in your cap and bells for my amusement.


hello says:

"At the very least, Berdymukhamedov's independence is a sign of Moscow's weakness, an indicator that Vladimir Putin's leverage is slipping. No longer can the diminutive Russian leader try to throw one of his patented glares at a Central Asian leader like Berdymukhamedov, and induce a blink. The man of the year in 2007 could well experience some setbacks in 2008."

Wow, he's weak AND his leverage is slipping. He can't even glare anymore! Yup, that sounds like the dread leader of a country that, according to Lucas, is about to subjugate an entire continent.

"But it points out that we have the opportunity to break that hold, as Lucas urges us to do"

Lucas "urges" us to do a whole lot of things but is deeply pessimistic about our ability to ACTUALLY move away from Russian energy. On the other hand the analysis from that War College chap makes it sound as if all we have to do is pick up the phone (remember, Putin's position is not only weak but also deteriorating!) and say "Hello, Turkmenistan, we'd like to help you screw over the Russians." and then BAM the Russian bear is declawed and sent back into its cave.

You also said that Russia's arrogance over its "imaginary energy leverage" must end. At the same time you warned that Russia faces "dire consequences" if it does not change its behavior.

Well, if Russia doesn't actually have any energy leverage, as you yourself said...what exactly are we pressuring them to give up? Isn't that what crazy people do, pressure people to give up things they don't actually have?

What 'imaginary' asset should we ask Russia to relinquish next? Its vast flocks of tropical birds? It's flotilla of Orcas? What about its massive collection of Coral Reefs?


Ray says:

Here we are at a blog site dedicated to promoting democracy...and the people running it are scheming how to make friends with the Turkmen dictator, one of the world's most vicious anti-democratic regimes on earth.

Pathetic.


Ray says:

Kim:
"Russian isn't a race, it's a nationality, you ignorant baboon."
Maybe you should tell the CIA that they're ignorant baboons because their factbook lists "Russian" as an "ethnic group," as do all reputable ethnologists around the world.
Only hardcore racists deny that there is a Russian ethnicity, just as, for example, Russian racists deny that there is a Chechen ethnicity.
La Russophobe indeed, you twisted little immigrant you. No wonder you use a fake name "Kim Zigfeld." It's like putting a white robe over your head while you burn crosses on ethnic Russians' lawns. Sick, sick, sick.


La Russophobe says:

RAY:

You are a shameless liar. There isn't one single word about "making friends" in this post. It is discussing a strategic opportunity to split a country out of Russia's orbit and undermine the energy war being carried out against us. If you thought even a little bit, you might realize it will be rather difficult for the U.S. to promote democracy it is being ravaged by a depression induced by energy warfare carried out by Russia.

If you can't comment in good faith, don't do so at all. You only show yourself to be a crude thug.

The CIA told us Iraq had WMD didn't it?

Do you think AT ALL before you post?

To be sure, though, the racists of Russia want "Russian" to be a synonym for "white Slavic Orthodox." Are you one of those racists?


John Hussey says:

About a month ago I was in a situation where I was able to overhear a conversation between a Russian "businessman" and an American "oil man". I am not about to tell you where I was or why I ws there! The heated topic of conversation was the Turkmen gas and the need Russia has for it to meet īt's needs and to support it's pricing structure within Russia. The 4 guys involved knew their business.

Berdymukhamedov is not a nice guy...Putin is more polished but a worse guy! Berdymukhamedov doesn't like Russia and would much prefer to deal with the west, sell Turkmen gas to the west but he knows he must protect his back.


Ray says:

"Kim":
Shhh, calm down, don't get all in a tussy, it's very un-lady-like of you.
If you think it's racist to say that the Russian ethnic group is white Slavic, then is it racist to say that the Polish ethnic group is white Slavic (Catholic)? Perhaps your problem is that you're not a native English speaker. I mean your English is pretty good for an immigrant, but that said, "Orthodox Christian" is a religion, while "white Slavic" is an ethnic group. And no, that's not racist, that's just ethnography. Meanwhile, I'd advise you to take your medicine. I know it's hard to run this site, must be tough on those immigrant nerves of yours. (No wonder you support McCain--he's the candidate of illegal immigrants!)


hello says:

'If you thought even a little bit, you might realize it will be rather difficult for the U.S. to promote democracy it is being ravaged by a depression induced by energy warfare carried out by Russia.'

But Kim, you yourself called Russia's energy leverage 'imaginary' in your post.
How can Russia possibly conduct 'energy warfare' that will 'ravage' the United States with only 'imaginary' energy leverage? Were you lying when you called Russia's energy leverage 'imaginary,' or does Russia really have serious energy leverage over Europe and the US? (I suppose you could also think that serious geopolitics takes place in a fantasy world where states utilize various sorts of 'imaginary' assets)

Nice to see that you ignored what I wrote though, that's usually a sign that you can't make up come up with enough lies and insults to get around the question.




Lauran says:

According to my opinion this is really very nice and informative post.Wide Circles is highly efficient Social Media Marketing (SMM) platform, that utilizes various social network mediums and at the same time avoids issues tied to pay per click fraud.This site is very nice and helpful. This post really provide me lot of useful and good information.
-----------------
lauran

Social Bookmarking




Post a comment


(will not be published)



Remember Me?

(you may use HTML tags for style)




TrackBack

TrackBack URL: http://publiuspundit.com/mt/contages.cgi/640