Time to Put the Screws to Mr. Putin
Filed under: Central Asia ~ Russia
Writing on EurasiaNet, Professor Stephen Blank of the U.S. Army war college points out that NATO has a massive strategic opportunity in Turkmenistan that it must not let slip through its fingers. The nation's dictator Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov is currently casting about for alternative markets for his country's massive exports of natural gas, gas which in the past was being sold to Russia at below market rates (the height of hypocrisy, as Russia begins to demand market rates from Ukraine and Belarus):
Russia cannot meet its domestic demand or its export obligations to CIS and European Union states with its own gas production, it must have Turkmen imports to keep its economic model viable. The Kremlin has hitherto been able to buy Turkmen exports at bargain-basement prices, and then provide it to its own subsidized market, and to similarly subsidized CIS markets. Russia uses much of its own domestically produced gas for export to the EU, which pays top euro for it. If Moscow can no longer have cheap Turkmen gas, it will face a variety of unsavory choices: it will either have to raise heavily subsidized domestic prices to global market levels, an option that the Kremlin is loathe to embrace; the Russian government could also reform its economy, which, self evidently, is a no less distasteful option than raising gas prices; or worse yet, Moscow could reduce foreign sales to meet domestic demand.
Blank points out that "Russia is very good at playing the bluffing game, so few people realize that the Russian government is sweating buckets. But the reality is that Moscow, increasingly desperate to preserve its status quo, is throwing money at Turkmenistan in the hope of buying Ashgabat's continuing loyalty." The Turkmen ruler is no longer inclined to allow his country to be victimized by Russia in this manner. Blank notes cuttingly: "At the very least, Berdymukhamedov's independence is a sign of Moscow's weakness, an indicator that Vladimir Putin's leverage is slipping. No longer can the diminutive Russian leader try to throw one of his patented glares at a Central Asian leader like Berdymukhamedov, and induce a blink. The man of the year in 2007 could well experience some setbacks in 2008." Diminutive. Ouch.
Russia doesn't have sufficient uranium or natural gas resources to cash the checks the Kremlin's big mouth is writing. The West must not fail to maximize its opportunity here. It must show Russia that its absurd arrogance over its imaginary energy leverage must end, here and now, or Russia will suffer dire consequences.