Central Asia Archives

Time to Put the Screws to Mr. Putin

Filed under: Central Asia ~ Russia

Writing on EurasiaNet, Professor Stephen Blank of the U.S. Army war college points out that NATO has a massive strategic opportunity in Turkmenistan that it must not let slip through its fingers. The nation's dictator Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov is currently casting about for alternative markets for his country's massive exports of natural gas, gas which in the past was being sold to Russia at below market rates (the height of hypocrisy, as Russia begins to demand market rates from Ukraine and Belarus):

Russia cannot meet its domestic demand or its export obligations to CIS and European Union states with its own gas production, it must have Turkmen imports to keep its economic model viable. The Kremlin has hitherto been able to buy Turkmen exports at bargain-basement prices, and then provide it to its own subsidized market, and to similarly subsidized CIS markets. Russia uses much of its own domestically produced gas for export to the EU, which pays top euro for it. If Moscow can no longer have cheap Turkmen gas, it will face a variety of unsavory choices: it will either have to raise heavily subsidized domestic prices to global market levels, an option that the Kremlin is loathe to embrace; the Russian government could also reform its economy, which, self evidently, is a no less distasteful option than raising gas prices; or worse yet, Moscow could reduce foreign sales to meet domestic demand.

Blank points out that "Russia is very good at playing the bluffing game, so few people realize that the Russian government is sweating buckets. But the reality is that Moscow, increasingly desperate to preserve its status quo, is throwing money at Turkmenistan in the hope of buying Ashgabat's continuing loyalty." The Turkmen ruler is no longer inclined to allow his country to be victimized by Russia in this manner. Blank notes cuttingly: "At the very least, Berdymukhamedov's independence is a sign of Moscow's weakness, an indicator that Vladimir Putin's leverage is slipping. No longer can the diminutive Russian leader try to throw one of his patented glares at a Central Asian leader like Berdymukhamedov, and induce a blink. The man of the year in 2007 could well experience some setbacks in 2008." Diminutive. Ouch.

Russia doesn't have sufficient uranium or natural gas resources to cash the checks the Kremlin's big mouth is writing. The West must not fail to maximize its opportunity here. It must show Russia that its absurd arrogance over its imaginary energy leverage must end, here and now, or Russia will suffer dire consequences.

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Kim Zigfeld · February 11, 2008 4:49 PM · Comments (11) · TrackBacks (0)

Ominous Developments in Afghanistan

Filed under: Central Asia

CNN reports:

Taliban militants attacked a coalition military base in southern Afghanistan for the second time Saturday and the third time this week, the U.S.-led coalition said. It warned the ambushes could "possibly be a rehearsal for a much bigger attack, possibly an attempt to completely overrun the post." Afghan and coalition soldiers at Firebase Anaconda in Uruzgan province fought off the attackers Saturday. Several Taliban militants were killed, and two insurgents were wounded and taken into custody. Earlier, another attack at the base led to fighting that killed four militants. On Tuesday, 75 fighters ambushed the same outpost from three directions. Almost a third of them were killed when troops and U.S. warplanes repelled the attack. Along with U.S.-led coalition forces, there is a large Dutch troop presence in Uruzgan. There have been a flurry of battles this week in two other volatile southern Afghan provinces -- Kandahar and Helmand. A battle on Saturday northwest of Sangin in Helmand province "ended with another defeat of the Taliban by pro-government forces," the coalition said. Three Afghan and one coalition soldier were wounded. Afghan and coalition troops defeated Taliban insurgents in a daylong battle Friday in Kandahar province that was triggered by an attempted ambush, the U.S. military said. About a dozen insurgents were killed, and one Afghan and one coalition soldier were slightly hurt. Earlier Friday, Afghan and coalition troops fought a large battle with militants in Helmand province. The battle began Thursday and lasted more than 13 hours, the U.S. military said. It said at least 10 insurgents were killed, with no Afghan, coalition or civilian losses reported. On Tuesday, Afghan police staved off an ambush north of Sangin in Helmand province, and coalition aircraft pounded insurgent positions, the military said. More than two dozen insurgents were reported killed.

Why do we always assume that, once defeated, our rivals are just going to reform and/or disappear? Would we behave this way if we were them? We thought this would occur in Russia when the Cold War "ended" -- it didn't. And it seems Afghanistan is going to be more of the same.

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Kim Zigfeld · August 11, 2007 8:44 PM · Comments (8) · TrackBacks (0)

The Attire of a True Killer

Filed under: Central Asia ~ Pakistan

Taliban-style radical Islamists and Madrassah students have been holed up in Pakistan's now-famous Red Mosque for awhile now, following several months of kidnapping and killings committed by the incited students. Some of these people are killers. Way hardcore.

Not so much the cleric doing the inciting. Yesterday, the big man behind all the action was caught sneaking out of the mosque to avoid capture as Pakistani troops surrounded the area. Not only is he not the kind of martyr and jihadist that he claims to be, but he is even more cowardly because he was caught leaving in a woman's burka!

A grab of Ajj TV shows, in circle, Abdul Aziz, chief cleric of the Red Mosque, as he is surrounded by security officials after his arrest near The Red Mosque in Islamabad. Pakistani security forces arrested Aziz as he tried to flee while disguised in an all-covering women's burqa on Wednesday, officials said.(AFP/Ajj TV)

The government then proceeded to humiliate him in front of everyone, putting him on state television still clad in the burka so that he could urge his followers to surrender. I think it's safe to assume that he has totally discredited himself. My question is, why has it taken so long to beat a guy like this?

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Robert Mayer · July 5, 2007 9:45 AM · Comments (3) · TrackBacks (0)

Mansour Dadallah: Osama Bin Laden is Alive and Kicking

Filed under: Central Asia

That may not be true, but it is worrying that the Talibans are still very active despite the NATO troops presence. Not only that but they seem to have enough financial and logistical resources to launch their own radio station.

You can read more about it here.

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Manuela Paraipan · June 25, 2007 12:39 PM · Comments (1) · TrackBacks (0)

The Hug That Launched A Thousand Fatwas

Filed under: Central Asia ~ Pakistan

Look at her, Nilofer Bakhtiar, that harlot. Not only is she parading around in public as Pakistan's tourism minister, but she's going around giving hugs to French men, walking around sans ninja gear, and... and... are those boobs?? Many may believe that she is clapping for something in this picture, but really, she is sinisterly rubbing her hands together plotting the weakening of the public morality!

At least, this is what people inside the Taliban-like Red Mosque are saying right now. These people issued a deadly fatwa against this poor woman for giving a victory hug to an instructor after a successful parachute jump. No mind that this was her first jump, which takes a great deal of courage, and not to mention that the jump was for an aid organization raising money to aid the people of Pakistan who had been injured or displaced in the great October 2005 earthquake.

But who cares about them, right? All that really matters is that women aren't in public doing, well, anything!

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Robert Mayer · April 10, 2007 11:33 AM · Comments (2) · TrackBacks (0)