The Orange Revolution caused quite a stir among the international crowd these past few months. Supporters and election observers from all of the world flew in to participate and watch. I know I was watching.

Most importantly, however, as these revolutions are carried out, lessons are being learned by those who have not yet been able to have one of their own. Students from the Belarus civil resistance group ZUBR have been watching and learning in Kiev.

Now, ZUBR has been one of the weaker movements when compared to OTPOR, which ousted Slobodan Milosevic, Georgian KMARA of the Rose Revolution, and PORA of the Orange Revolution. Well, obviously, since they haven’t achieved their revolution yet.

It seems, however, that they have the right idea. As the democracy current builds in the region, it will throw its support behind movements that have not yet achieved success.

Russia, like with its backing of Kuchma and Yanukovich in Ukraine, will continue to try to make itself a problem. But who is Putin kidding? Russia just doesn’t have the power it once did, and the best he can do it make totalitarianism a sore thorn in the foot of the West.

“Ukraine has had a great impact on Belarus,” says Irina Krasovskaya, leader of the human rights group We Remember, who recently has been shuttling between Minsk and Washington. “It gives us hope for our victory, because we realized that Russia is not so powerful as they want to seem.”

No, not even Russia, in its sick state of decline, can stop the inevitable spread of freedom.

Luckily, the U.S. has already stepped up its efforts to help the people of Belarus. On Oct. 20, three days after the fraudulent referendum to let President Lukashenko run for another term, President Bush signed into law the Belarus Democracy Act of 2004. It’s not very long, and includes a summary at the top. Worth a read for the foreign policy junkies.

Boycotting the government is a good idea, and supporting free media and the people is an even better one. This is a good step, as they need to know they have our support. On my predictions list for 2005, I’ll be betting on a Revolution of some unknown color in Belarus.

Update: I just ran across this article that quotes Belarus Foreign Minister Sergei Martynov as saying of the country:

“Many ask the question whether Belarus will be next (after) Ukraine. I can answer with certainty ???????? it will not be. These are different countries, different nations and different leaders.”

Because we all know that what a dictator says, goes. What do we expect them to say? That they support a free, democratic society? Give me a break. The government might feel that way, but I bet the people of Belarus don’t.

He further states:

“The economy is developing at a fast pace. People’s incomes are growing quickly. Everything taken together is not giving any ground for events similar to the Ukrainian ones.”

With those EU diplomatic travel bans and US sanction on lending to the government, I can’t imagine they’ll have many avenues to bargain from.

And let’s take a look at the economic breakdown. According to the Lukashenko’s own website, the living standard has actually decreased over the past few years. This is strange, considering inflation is low, GDP is up sharply, and unemployment is only around 3.1%.

Can someone give the Belarusian population a PSA that their government is stealing their money?