Blogging the democratic revolution
Over the past six months, and especially since Russia cut off the flow of natural gas through Belarus, tensions between the two countries’ political elites has been at a divisive high. Belarus had to give up a majority stake in its Beltranshaz pipeline system or face a huge increase in gas prices. As we described here almost a year ago, such a gas increase would affect the everyday Belarusian to such a huge degree that the impact would likely cost President Lukashenko his job. What Russia has done now, however, is to put Lukashenko on the spot. No longer is…
You know the story so far: Russia suddenly drops an oil price bomb on impoverished Belarus, dramatically increasing the price Belarussians are charged because the country was insufficiently slavish in its obedience of the Kremlin, and Belarus responds with a massive tax on Russia’s Belarus oil pipeline transits to Europe, whereupon Russia threatens to cut off all oil shipments to Belarus, and Belarus then bitterly backs down from its tax. Where do we go from here? What does it all mean? Lionel Beehner, a staff member at the Council on Foreign Relations, has an article on the New Republic website…
Just over a year ago, Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine due to a standoff over whether the country would pay full “market price” over the subsidies that it had been receiving. Consequently, given that a large amount of Western Europe’s gas flows through Ukraine’s pipelines, there were a lot of German and French folk freezing their butts off last year until the flow was restored. The news made international headlines immediately, most likely due to who it affected rather than the simple action itself. But regardless, it was the first sign of a Russia ready to bully…
(To hear the interview in .mp3 format or download it to your iPod, click here or right-click and choose “save target as”.) Since Alexander Lukashenka became president of Belarus in 1994, he has used every avenue possible to repress political opposition to his rule. He has jailed politicians and activists, shut down NGOs both major and minor, destroyed the independent media, and ensured that no man but he will win the so-called presidential election that is held every five years. Some of his biggest opposition, however, comes from university students who crave opportunity in a country whose government regulates the…
In January of this year, Gazprom ???????turned-off???????? the gas to Ukraine. The reason? Some say it was economically motivated ???????? Ukraine pays substantially less than the fair market price. So, Gazprom was merely acting as any other economically driven company would. However, perhaps the more frequent explanation for the gas crisis is that it was politically motivated. The common answer under this heading is that Russia used Gazprom as a foreign policy tool/weapon to punish Ukraine????????s new found Western focus. Yet there is a third explanation which I believe is closer to the truth: Russia and Gazprom believe that Ukraine…
Venezuelan and Belarusian dictators strut before lines of troops in Minsk Source: Reuters, via Yahoo! First, take a look at the top of line weaponry Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez is buying from Vladimir Putin of Russia, to aim at us, just 1350 miles from our shores. This is but one step removed from another Cuban Missile Crisis. That’s a main reason for this junket to Belarus and Russia. So much for peace and friendship. What’s peace and friendship compared to advanced weaponry! Miguel Octavio at Devil’s Excrement in a brilliant essay, writes of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez’s visit with Aleksander…
Something that went unnoticed due to the international attention focused on Lebanon was the sentencing of Belarussian opposition candidate Alexander Kozulin to 5 1/2 years in prison on July 13. His crime? Leading protest marches following the obviously fraudulent presidential election last March. You’d think he murdered someone or something. What is interesting, however, is that the candidate of the united democratic forces, Alexander Milinkevich, was never arrested, jailed, or even had any of his rallies broken up at the time. What gives? The Eurasia Daily Monitor gives us a clue: Kazulin has long had close links to state structures,…
If there was any question in anyone’s mind that Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez might not be a communist, that illusion was put paid to rest by Chavez’s visit today to Belarus, the last remaining dictatorship in Europe. Agencia EFE reported the Venezuelan dictator’s visit to Europe’s most oppressive regime this way: “We must make (Soviet Union founder Vladimir) Lenin’s slogan a reality regarding the unacceptability of the exploitation of man by man,” Chavez told the press. The Venezuelan leader said he had come to Minsk to “seal a unity pact and lay the first stone for future relations between Belarus…
While the Bush administration has lost its ability to assert itself internationally, the void in cohesive diplomatic power combined with fluctuating energy markets has created the opportunity for problematic relationships to develop outside of the Western spheres. China, a country high on energy demand and human rights abuse, and Russia, supplier of ever more tainted and corrupt oil, have become trading partners. With the United States and Great Britain’s involvement in Iraq, NATO’s deployment in Afghanistan, and the short-term reliance on Russian gas in continental Europe, China and Russia have built a viable economic partnership as both continually support undemocratic…
Fifteen years ago pro-democracy activists in Russia tore down a statue in front of the Moscow KGB Headquarters. The statue was a monument to Felix Dzerzhinsky, the founder of the Cheka, the predecessor agency of the KGB. Back in 2002 the mayor of Moscow suggested that the statue be restored, which caused an uproar, and even the former KGB official, and President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, was opposed to the restoration. Felix Dzerzhinsky, known as Iron Felix, was responsible for mass arrests, brutality and thousands of executions. Once, when discussing the type of person he was looking for to work…
Imagine a country where you have to get permission to protest, and when the authorities give it to you, they snatch it right back. Then they arrest you and sentence you to 15 days in prison for an “unsanctioned rally.” The same thing happens to your colleagues; some of them are even beaten! What country is this? I’ll give you one guess: it starts with “B” and ends with “elarus”. The democratic opposition in Belarus held its first rally since tens of thousands of people protested in March following a fraudulent presidential election handed to current Dictator Alexander Lukashenko. It…
Ten thousand Belarusians gathered to commemorate the victims of the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown twenty years after the disaster. It was organized by the democratic opposition led by Alexander Milinkevich and was the first such rally since the end of March when protestors were brutalized following a peaceful gathering of tens of thousands. You can see a minute-by-minute log of the events at Charter 97. They had hoped to gather in October Square, the sight of the post-presidential election protests last month, but lines of riot police blocked all avenues to the square. Furthermore, the trains were ordered not to stop…
If you ever needed more proof that Russian state-controlled natural gas monopoly is a political weapon of Putin, look no further. I will explain why in a second. For now, read the following article March 30, 2006 — Russia’s Gazprom said today it would raise natural gas prices for Belarus to European levels by 2007. Gazprom head Aleksei Miller told Belarusian Energy Minister Alyaksandr Ageyev about the planned change at a meeting in Moscow today. Gazprom said Minsk would respond by the end of April. Belarus, a close Russian ally, currently receives gas at a subsidized price of $47 per…
Democratic opposition protestors who were arrested over the past week following historic demonstrations have gone on a hunger strike. They are rotting in prison cells after having their bodies battered and bruised by riot police for absolutely no reason; being denied even the most basic human rights. Twenty political prisoners in Belarus are on hunger strike, rights advocates have said, drawing attention to conditions at a jail where about 400 opposition supporters are being held. The rights defenders said on Tuesday that the prisoners are being held in crowded conditions, and are being denied water and the right to receive…
I co-hosted two interviews on Belarus and Burma at Global Crisis Wacth/Clandestine Radio. The first, Belarus-related, starts from the minute ‘1 and had our dear friend Robert Mayer as guest. The second, Burma-related, starts from the 22’40 minute. Listen to them here I’d like to thank GCW/CR’s Nick Grace and Rich Lafayette for granting me and Robert the opportunity to speak on radio!
After Lukashenko gave the order to clear October Square of any and all protestors in the Friday twilight., it was completely cordoned off by riot police. Access to the square was denied. But thousands, at least twenty to thirty thousand, people showed up for the planned opposition rally and it was held in Yanka Kupala Square instead. Even more would have gone if there had been more space, and if they weren’t hampered from doing so. Democratic opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich called for the creation of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Belarus, part of the opposition’s plan to…
Perhaps the most irritating part about the entire Belarus affair right now is the lies that come out of the Russian media, and the two-faced and often misled reporting done by many news organizations in Europe. For the former, they tell a story completely dislodged from reality; so far off that you can’t really tell if they believe it, or if they’re just trying to hide their grin. For the latter, they either tell the story to the West and repeat the lies to the East, or are simply so lazy in collecting information that they end up benignly repeating…
Lukashenko has finally given the order to storm and detain the protestors on October Square in the early Minsk morning. They have all been arrested. The square is compeltely empty. What does this bode for tomorrow, when a massive demonstration is supposed to be held?… Will is happen? MINSK, Belarus – Police stormed the opposition tent camp in the Belarusian capital Minsk early Friday morning, detaining scores of demonstrators who had spent a fourth night in a central square to protest President Alexander Lukashenko’s victory in a disputed election. The arrests came after a half dozen large police buses and…
The ongoing protests in Belarus since Sunday leave much to be desired; that is, if you’re expecting a colored revolution immediately. Sunday saw well over 10,000 people rallying in October Square, about half that on Monday, and slightly more on Tuesday. You really can’t help but be down on it — the chances are slim to none. The mainstream media especially is hedging its bets against the protestors based on the dwindling numbers. Due to ongoing news coverage, I haven’t really been able to get my thoughts down completely. Here they are. Though there may not be a revolution, here…
A thousand or so Belorussian freedom fighters camped out in October Square all night without much food, tea, or things to keep them warm. Because the police wouldn’t let anyone help or join them. They survived the below-freezing temperatures and the threat of a bloodbath. These protestors swore to be there for good and they are, holding their ground all night and now all day. Having survived, what happens next is crucial. The protest on March 20 seemed to gain, in physical numbers, only about half the number of people as on election night. There were likely no more than…
In just a couple of hours, we will see if democratic opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich’s call to the people for street protests against an obviously fraudulent election will pan out. People are to meet at October Square in the middle of Minsk at 6:30 p.m. wearing smiles first and foremost. They will call for a recount and new elections. Meanwhile, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has condemned the election. The chairman of the Helsinki Commission, Senator Brownback (R-KS) has slammed the election as a complete “farce.” Ministers from the European Union have followed suit, and are…
After a flawed — to say the least — referendum in 2004 to allow for unlimited consecutive presidential candidacies, Dictator Alexander Lukashenko is running for the third time for president again today. People will go to the polls, voting without freedom of conscience or the knowledge that their vote is even tallied. The regime is looking to avoid the same kind of people power revolution that has brought down entire governments in Georgia, Ukraine, and Lebanon on days that were marred with the kind of phony elections that Belarus is holding at this very moment. To do this, the authorities…
Belarus goes to the polls on March 19 to elect a president. All indication shows that the incumbent, Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko, will win reelection by way of genuine popularity and repression against the population. Lukashenko was first elected in 1994 on a vague populist platform which gave him 80 percent of the vote in a fair election. Beginning in 1996, he used a combination of legislative moves and repression to solidify his power. NGOs, human rights organizations, oppostition parties and civil society groups are all under a stiff arm of real or threatened repression. Belarus is now considered by many…
With a presidential “election” just over two weeks away, things are worse in Belarus than they usually are. The opposition is gearing up for the fight of its life, uniting behind a single candidate for the first time. President Lukashenko, on the other hand, is ready to kill them if he has to. Or at least beat them and fire in their general direction. The formidable br23 blog reports in more detail than Reuters ever could about the arrest and beating of one of the opposition candidates, Alexander Kazulin. The details are simply hard to imagine. Afterward, the main opposition…
First it was September, then July, now March?? The Parliament in Belarus voted Friday to hold the countryés next presidential election in March, opening an accelerated campaign between its authoritarian leader, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, and a beleaguered opposition movement. The election will be a watershed for Belarus, which Mr. Lukashenko has led since 1994 with an increasingly repressive hand. He has revived symbols and policies of the countryés Soviet past, eroded personal and political freedoms and stifled all forms of dissent. The democratic opposition – now unified behind a single candidate, Aleksandr Milinkevich – has called for a free election,…