Andy just posted some really good commentary about the European Union’s desire to promote stability in Russia over democracy. Here is part of it:
The EU fears this day because, unlike revolutions in Ukraine or Georgia, the instability that comes with any regime transition may not be so easily contained in Russia. Russia is simply too large. The EU also knows that those currently in the Kremlin have no powerful outsiders to back them up in a crisis. Leonid Kuchma, the outgoing Ukrainian President, at least has the security of knowing that his powerful protectors in Russia will (probably) not allow significant harm to come to him. But what powerful outside protectors does Vladimir Putin have if he can’t hand pick his successor? Where is his safety net should he be kicked out of office? When the day comes, he’ll fight that much harder than Kuchma or Shervardnadze did, and that means an increased chance of conflict within Russia. That is what the EU fears.
I agree. As democracy spreads, these authoritarian political monsters are going to find themselves backed into a corner. And when that happens, it is human nature to try to fight out of it. What will Putin do when the situation degrades? What will the EU do?
Political stability is so overrated. The best long-term results will always come with promoting free, open societies, irregardless of the short-term political instability.