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Iraq’s neighbors afraid of the election

This article from AZ Central details, albeit at times somewhat wrongly or speculatively, that no matter the results of the election, they are scared of the consequences. Apparently, the Shiite majority that is going to arise in Iraq will create problems for just about everybody, despite some benefits. Here is the introduction:

DAMASCUS, Syria – With suspicion, uncertainty and dread, governments across the Middle East are waiting for Sunday’s landmark parliamentary election in Iraq. To many, the vote is a deeply worrisome exercise that could produce one of a handful of bad options.

Shiite Muslim alliances from Iraq’s majority sect are expected to win, and neighboring governments fear that the result will provoke fresh violence from Sunni Muslims, a minority in Iraq that dominated under Saddam Hussein. If the violence isn’t contained, a civil war could erupt, causing the nation to disintegrate along sectarian and ethnic lines and spreading instability through the region.

Then there are concerns about the elected government itself. Kuwait, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, ruled by Sunni Muslims, are wary of an Iraqi government dominated by Shiites, many with ties to Iran, the region’s other large Shiite majority nation.
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Tehran, on the other hand, worries that a pro-Washington Baghdad could allow U.S. soldiers to stay indefinitely. Syria and Turkey fret that Iraq’s Kurds may press for independence, stirring up separatist sentiments among their own Kurdish populations.

If the election succeeds in producing a representative Iraqi government, that may be the most threatening outcome of all: a direct, democratic challenge to the region, where kings, dictators and clerics traditionally rely on fear and force to hold onto power.

“If it’s a successful election, then everybody will be scared of it,” said Ali Shukri, a retired Jordanian general. “If everybody tries to take the Iraqi model, there will be upheaval in the region.”

Like I say, stability is so overated. It is definitely once in a blue moon, a real historic event, when the totalitarians of the Middle East are deathly scared of a single event.

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