Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri has been assassinated by a suicide bomber. A Shia terrorist group calling itself “Victory and Jihad” has taken credit, and the Lebanese opposition is blaming Syria, of whom Hariri was a critic.

I was just watching a news report on Al-Jazeera covering this, and it is looking like Lebanon, once known as the “Switzerland of the Middle East,” may soon become the Ukraine of the Middle East. The crowds gathering in the streets and the political opposition’s press conference certainly reminded me of recent events in that country. Syria has long maintained control over Lebanon’s political system, and overt opposition – rare in the Arab world – has been growing louder and louder. Al-Jazeera showed a video of the terrorist organization taking credit for the assassination. The man, identified by Al-Hayat as Ahmad Abu Ads, a Palestinian, read from a written statement, stating that Hariri’s killing was necessary to rid “Bilad al-Sham” – Greater Syria – of “unbelievers.” Hariri was a businessman in Saudi Arabia before becoming prime minister, and the man stated that Hariri and those aligned with him (i.e. those opposed to Syria) were agents of that the Kingdom. At the same time, the opposition pointed the finger at Syria and the current Lebanese government headed by President Amil Lahud, who has remained loyal to Syria.

These two associations are not necessarily inconsistent. Syria supports Shia terrorists in Lebanon, principally Hizbullah, and the Shia detest Saudi Arabia and its Wahhabi religious establishment. One official quoted on Al-Jazeera stated that this was a threat to all the Sunni Muslims of Lebanon. What I suspect – and I emphasize that this is speculation at this point – is that this “Victory and Jihad” group is actually formed from Hizbullah as a way of distancing that organization from the attack, which was sure to cause a backlash.

More analysis of the situation in Lebanon to come as the facts become clearer, but what should be underscored is the possibility of a political earthquake in Lebanon. As I’ve noted in recent posts on Syria (see Syria and Russia: Stuck in Time), the Syrian government is facing multiple challenges right now, and defeat in Lebanon could have repercussions for the internal balance of power within Syria. This will be interesting.

Contributed by Kirk H. Sowell of Window on the Arab World, and More!

UPDATE BY ROBERT: The U.S. is saying that Lebanon should be free of Syria.