I take it they are playing it safe with a precarious situation:
BAGHDAD, IRAQ – With a Shiite coalition set to take power in Iraq, American officials have begun grilling top Iraqi Shiite politicians to try to gauge the extent of their relationship with neighboring Iran, a predominantly Shiite nation ruled by its clergy.
The nature of the Shiite coalition’s ties to Iran has become a crucial issue now that the cleric-backed alliance has emerged as the leading faction in the new Iraqi parliament and at a time when the United States and Iran are engaged in a war of words over Iran’s nuclear program.
In recent talks, U.S. diplomats have bluntly asked the leaders how a Shiite-dominated government would react if Iran came under attack by an outside power because of its suspected nuclear weapons program, according to a high-ranking member of one Shiite party.
The Iraqi Shiite leaders have reassured the Americans that they are mostly concerned about how any such attack would affect Iraq, and they have stressed their independence from Iran, said the Shiite party official, who is familiar with the U.S. talks but would speak only on condition of anonymity.
I think it is a legitimate concern, but you have to remember that this National Assembly won’t really be ruling the country so much as it will just be drafting the Constitution. The Shiite coalition has 48% of the seats in the assembly, which is very close to a majority, but the necessary votes to finalize the Constitution will require a supermajority of 2/3. This means that, whether they really like it or not, they have no choice but to be all-inclusive. Given that this is inevitable, and the reassuring manner of the Shiite coalition, I’ll venture a guess that the proceedings will start on a moderate tone instead of being forced that way by bargains and concessions.
And remember, they are ultimately accountable to the referendum in August. If the voters don’t approve the Constitution, then they are back to square one.
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