Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has a great primer on the events there. Here is the first, second, and third parts in the series. Make sure to check out the RFE/RL feature page on the election.

Nathan also has a huge roundup.

This article explains procedure for monitors, and while the headline says there are no violations, this says differently:

BISHKEK. Feb 27 (Interfax) – A Kyrgyz opposition leader said violations have been reported in Sunday????????s parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan.

???????Reports have been arriving since the morning about flagrant violations of election regulations and about the use of administrative pressure during the elections and during preparations for the elections,??????? Roza Otunbayeva, leader of the Ata-Zhurt (Fatherland) opposition movement told the press on Sunday.

???????The elections are unfair and are likely to be followed by a wave of popular protests,??????? Otunbayeva said.

After Venezuela and Ukraine, I’m going to take the opposition side on this. Reuters reports on voter apathy do to the cheating of the electoral system. Freedom House deplores the closing of the only Kyrgyzstan opposition press a few days before the elections.

Kyrgyzstan is experiencing an unprecedented upsurge in civil activism:

A sudden upsurge of civic activism has brought thousands out into the streets in Kyrgyzstan. Parliamentary elections are on 27 February, demonstrators are demanding the reinstatement of candidates pulled from races, and the specter of recent revolutionary political change in Georgia and Ukraine looms large across the former Soviet Union.

But possible parallels tell only part of the story, for the surprising sweep of Kyrgyzstan’s protests, the particulars of its political spectrum, and the importance of its current crossroads suggest that whatever path the country now takes, it will be very much its own.

Large-scale protests began when local courts started removing candidates from the ballot for the 27 February parliamentary elections. On 21 February, more than 500 supporters of candidate Arslan Maliev gathered in the Tong Raion of Issyk-Kul Oblast when a court nixed his candidacy for campaign violations, RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service reported. The same day, over 2,000 people massed in Talas Oblast to protest the removal of candidate Ravshan Jeenbekov for alleged vote-buying, the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) reported on 24 February. The next day, a crowd numbering from 7,000-10,000 blocked the Bishkek-Torugart highway in the Kochkor Raion of Naryn Oblast to protest the removal of candidates Beishenbek Bolotbekov and Akylbek Japarov, RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service reported. Protests also took place in the Tiup Raion of Issyk-Kul Oblast to protest the disqualification of candidate Sadyr Japarov. Jalal-Abad Oblast witnessed similar demonstrations.

Blog Zerrissenheit reports the same in her own descriptions:

In protest, roads are presently blocked at Tyup (north of Karakol, along Lake Issy-Kul) and Bokonbaeva.

There are demonstrations — and the road is blocked — in Kochkor (near Lake Song Kol) as well.

Cars cannot reach Naryn nor Karakol.

Electricity has been cut off at the printing press of opposition newspapers.

A couple of days ago, in Karakol, the governor of Issyk-Kul region told opposition candidates that they should withdraw their candidacies to allow pro-governmental candidates to win. The tone of the request was, “Anyway you can’t win, so you might as well just give up.”

Debates were broadcast in southern regions, but the power was cut to households that would be viewing.

Transition Trends blog is giving its impression, while Transitions Online reports on the government’s anti-democratic legacy, and how people are willing to dish out the spankings:

International human rights groups have dutifully recorded and expressed concern about illegal attempts to thwart opposition campaigns and to manipulate the results of the elections, which will be held on 27 February. Kyrgyz human rights activists say that President Askar Akaev, having already ???????taken over??????? the government apparatus, is now trying to take over the legislative branch, after which he can join several other leaders of former Soviet republics in establishing a dynasty for himself and his family. The ground is clearly being prepared: numerous family relatives of the president are running in these elections.

The problem for the president is that, either because of his government????????s numerous public statements about the virtues of democracy????????statements transparently aimed at pleasing the international community-or simply because of its demonstrated inefficiency when it tries to implement repressive tactics, many citizens seem unprepared to allow the Akaev government have its way in these elections.

Even after the bloodshed in the Aksy region in 2002, when police shot dead a number of protesters????????crimes for which no one has been punished, while the officials responsible have been promoted????????anxious Kyrgyz citizens do not fear their government enough to play the passive, supplicant role expected by a president who apparently sees himself as a benign father-figure.

Just like in the Orange Revolution, the opposition has a song:

“The wave has risen. The thunder has awoken. The time has come, a time for celebration of the victory of good over evil….”

That????????s the campaign song of KelKel, a youthful political movement that is making waves in Kyrgyzstan. Loosely translated, KelKel means ???????new epoch??????? in Kyrgyz and the group — using adapted lyrics to a popular movie tune — is appealing to youth across the country to vote on 27 February against a government it accuses of corruption and authoritarian practices.

KelKel is one of many youth groups and parties that have sprung up recently in Kyrgyzstan, representing the full political spectrum from pro-government to neutral, to resolutely antigovernment.

KelKel actually has a great discussion between students about the need for revolution there. Check that out!

Speaking of the opposition, Benjamin Walker notes the difference between pro-government campaign posters and those of other candidates. Pictures!

There is some speculation as to what color this revolution will be if it occurs. From what I could tell in the past, it would either be tulip or velvet.

UPDATE: There is fear of the issuing of a state of emergency in some regions. The article is a couple of days old, but has a lot of good information. It is still something to watch out for.

MY THOUGHTS: I’ll be sure to update more as more news comes out of the situation. But for now, here are my thoughts and predictions.

These parliamentary elections, despite some big protests, may not spark a revolution this time around. This is simply because the issue of many individual parliamentarians being voted in is not as powerfully divisive as a two man show for president. That’s just how it is.

However, these elections, due to the government’s hand in creating a “family dynasty” of sorts, will further speculation into government corruption and misuse of power. The presidential elections are in October, and the currently presiding president has said he will step down. Like Kuchma, I believe he will. And like Kuchma, I think the government is going to massively try to influence the elections to get their guy in. If just the parliamentary elections can wield the protests that are underway already, the presidential ones will be much larger.

When it comes down to it, the democratic opposition needs to find common ground and a popular candidate that it can run. It also needs to establish a widely known campaign, and more mass media. Good choices for candidates would probably be those who were last-minute barred from running for parliament. As for the mass media, the more it produces, the more the government will try to shut down. This is actually a good thing, as it gives the opposition more credence while they continue to dispense underground information.

So is a tulip revolution possible now? It’s possible, but not likely. I think we on this side of the blogosphere saw more than we originally thought would happen. So is one possible in October? I’d place money on it.

UPDATE: Here are some preliminary results.