CLIFFNOTES:
1) Mubarak’s announcement and actions seek to legitimize his own government, not reform.
2) Opposition has little time to develop a massive grass roots campaign.
3) This does open a window for regime change if actions outside of Mubarak’s control occur.

Alright, so I’m a little skeptical. From the Christian Science Monitor:

BEIRUT AND CAIRO ???????? When Egyptians head to the polls later this year to elect a president, they will face something they have never seen before on the ballots: options.

In a surprise announcement Saturday, Egypt’s long-ruling president, Hosni Mubarak, ordered constitutional changes that would open the door for the first-ever multiparty presidential elections in the world’s most populous Arab country. The move is the latest indication of a cautious democratic shift under way in the Arab world.

Since the beginning of the year, the region has seen national elections in Iraq and the Palestinian territories, landmark municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, and unprecedented mass demonstrations in Lebanon calling for an end to Syrian tutelage.

The question remains whether these developments are truly the initial flourishings of a nascent democratic transformation or merely halfhearted measures by autocratic regimes which have no intention of promoting genuine change. What happens next is key, observers say.

“I will be encouraged only when I see a real grass-roots movement emerging,” says Ammar Abdulhamid, a Syrian social analyst. “What I see happening in Lebanon is encouraging. In Egypt, I can see signs because there are a number of people who have pushed Mubarak into opening up the elections. On the other hand, in Syria unfortunately, it’s a very disappointing state of affairs and we seem to be heading in the wrong direction.”

Egyptian opposition groups, which have been calling for reform for decades, cautiously welcomed Mr. Mubarak’s step, but warned that there was much work ahead to guarantee the election would be free and open to all candidates. “I still can’t believe I am talking about open presidential elections in Egypt,” says Hisham Kassem, a human rights activist. “If I don’t get beaten up or arrested and dumped in a cell, I now think I may actually see democracy here within my lifetime.”

Exactly. The reason I have always been incredibly pumped up, so to speak, about elections and revolutions going on in other countries is because they were initiated by the people. This is a calculated move by an authoritarian regime aimed to curb such threats, despite being packaged as true reform. I posted in the comments section of the Belgravia Dispatch about this. You may need to read the few comments preceding mine to understand who I’m referring to:

I’m not one for flagrant language, so I’ll keep it short. I’m skeptical. The devil really is in the details, and it isn’t in what the reform law says, it is in how it is carried out. It doesn’t take a Freedom House report to say that all authoritarian regimes use the government as a means of propoganda instead of remaining impartial and dutifully carrying out the law. That has to be kept in mind.

On a sadder note, most of the Egyptian opposition is communist or Islamic leftist.

John, I agree with you that once the ball of reform is rolled, there is no stopping it. Just look at the effects rumbling through Saudi society after the municipal elections. But I have to agree with praktike as well. Egypt along with other manufactured authoritarian states have feigned this kind of thing before, and it has only served to strengthen the current regime’s role.

Mubarak’s goal through this is not only to strengthen his government, but to legitimize it. Legitimization is a big thing for despot rulers, and they wet their beds figuring out how to get it. The role of the mass media and local press will probably be the determining factor in whether this legislation works in his favor or not.

It is also notable that this announcement comes very near the date of the election, giving any opposition little time to field a candidate. I look forward to covering Egypt much more in the future because of these announcements, but I doubt it will be any reform-minded actions of the government that spark widespread desire for a new government. The internal grassroots campaign also needs time to develop, something which it doesn’t have time to do for this election.

The pressure from the U.S. and recent events in Iraq and Lebanon would have contributed highly to Mubarak’s decision to do this. He doesn’t want the world spot light to be shown on him in a negative light, so he did this. But Mubarak, in his home country, faces a pretty stable political situation that allows him to make this change without any change on the political scene. It opens a window, however. To extend upon that, let me create for you a bad metaphor.

This is like when someone flings shit at your window. When it’s closed, you can just clean it up. By opening the window, it can make a huge mess inside the house. Mubarak is opening that window, and if something happens like what happened in Ukraine or Lebanon, there is going to be an internal mess that he can’t clean up. That is the good that will come out of this.

Jeff Jarvis has rounded up the reactions of the Egyptian blogosphere, which is pretty mixed in opinion. And actually, pretty hilarious to read.

And Scrappleface works his magic.