Taef Accord and WMD — The Bekaa Valley?
Quite a bit has happened since Thursday. The international pressure, for one, has certainly stepped up. President Bush is even talking about it during his social security runs in New Jersey! But now even Saudi Arabia is getting in on the game.

Syrian troops have been fortifying their positions east of Beirut as pressure mounts on Damascus to pull out of Lebanon without delay.

Syrian troops were digging in at Hammana, part of the mountain range 26km (16 miles) east of Beirut, and at three other positions along the ridge yesterday. “They’re certainly not preparing to go home,” said an eyewitness at Hammana.

The four positions represent the line to which Syrian troops withdrew in 1992 under the Taif accord, which legitimised the country’s military presence in Lebanon.
…
After a meeting with Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh yesterday, Saudi officials said they had told President Bashar al-Assad that a full Syrian withdrawal must begin “soon”, joining similar calls recently from Germany and the long-time Syrian ally Russia.

The speed by which all of the Middle Eastern countries are abandoning Assad makes me question how much they align themselves to each other in the first place. But I would like to point out something else that needs to be kept in mind constantly when watching the Syria pullout. Read the excerpt that I just posted, and then read this one.

The U.S. and France have preempted President Assad, rejecting a mere roll back of forces and insisting on full withdrawal of the Syrian army and its various secret services altogether before May to guarantee that the spring elections for a new Lebanese government would be held free from external influence.
President Bush has rejected any partial withdrawal, saying Friday that he would not accept the kind of “half-measures” the Assad regime might offer as a compromise.

Almost simultaneously, President Chirac demanded from Paris a “full, entire and immediate” Syrian pullout that would enable Lebanon to hold free, credible and internationally observed parliamentary elections.

Bush and Chirac spoke a day ahead of a speech President Assad is scheduled to make at the Syrian parliament in Damascus to outline a new strategy in Lebanon. Many Beirut news analysts say Assad would pull some 12,000 troops out, leaving 2,000 or 3,000 troops at the Bekaa Valley ostensible to shield Damascus from an Israeli flank offensive.

“There are no half-measures at all,” Bush said. “When the United States and France say withdraw, we mean complete withdrawal, no halfhearted measures,” he asserted, noting that Lebanon’s plight under Syrian occupation has become his main preoccupation nowadays.

“Syria, Syrian troops, Syria’s intelligence services, must get out of Lebanon now,” the U.S. president said. “The world is beginning to speak with one voice. We want that democracy in Lebanon to succeed, and we know it cannot succeed so long as she is occupied by a foreign power and that power is Syria.”

There is a big difference between the way Syria and some of the Arab Umbrella states want to do the pullout and how the rest of the world wants it to happen. UN Resolution 1559 calls for the complete withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, whereas the Taef Accord provides for Syria justification to remain in Lebanon and then redeploy to the Bekaa Valley until withdrawal is negotiated between the two governments. Well, with a pro-Syria government, this withdrawal was obviously never made. With the current political climate, Syria knows that it cannot remain in full force in Lebanon, but it will try to use the Taef Accord instead of 1559 to implement its redeployment plan.

This is exactly what Assad is supposed to announce at his Saturday convening of parliament.

The Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, is expected to announce a large withdrawal of troops from Lebanon in a parliamentary speech today. He is under intense international pressure to do so. This week in Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Abdullah is reported to have told Mr Assad, on a visit to the country, that Syria must comply with UN demands immediately if it wants to avoid serious trouble.

A former Lebanese cabinet minister with close ties to Syrian and other Arab governments told Associated Press yesterday that Mr Assad would outline “a mechanism for the practical implementation of the Taif accord”.

The 1989 agreement, which ended Lebanon’s 15 years of civil war, requires Syria to pull back to the border and eventually leave the country.

“It will be a Syrian withdrawal according to the Taif agreement – a redeployment to the Beka’a region Äof eastern LebanonÅ,” the former minister said.

Lebanese sources say Syria, which has about 14,000 soldiers in Lebanon, will keep 3,000, and will say this is in compliance with the accord.

Witnesses said Syrian forces around the villages of Falougha, Hammana and Dahr al-Baydar in the mountains west of the Beka’a valley were digging in and strengthening their defences.

To me, this is particularly alarming. Remember the weapons of mass destruction that were never found in Iraq? After the war, the United States suspected these weapons were in the Bekaa Valley, exactly where Syrian troops will be redeploying its remaining forces to.

U.S. intelligence suspects Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction have finally been located.

Unfortunately, getting to them will be nearly impossible for the United States and its allies, because the containers with the strategic materials are not in Iraq.

Instead they are located in Lebanon’s heavily-fortified Bekaa Valley, swarming with Iranian and Syrian forces, and Hizbullah and ex-Iraqi agents, Geostrategy-Direct.com will report in Wednesday’s new weekly edition.

U.S. intelligence first identified a stream of tractor-trailer trucks moving from Iraq to Syria to Lebaon in January 2003. The significance of this sighting did not register on the CIA at the time.

U.S. intelligence sources believe the area contains extended-range Scud-based missiles and parts for chemical and biological warheads.

This report is from August, 2003, but the claims have never been able to be investigated because of the heavy fortification there. Is this why Syria won’t fully withdraw from Lebanon? They have more to protect than meets the eye, and this is a chance to find out. Let’s not forget about the nearly explosive event in Jordan last year. The reasons for pressuring Syria completely out of Lebanon are more than just for democracy, but to make their hand in Bekaa completely visible. I can’t wait to see it.

UPDATE: Rich reports that one ton of explosives was found missing from Bekaa just before Hariri was killed. Tons of explosives, chemical/biological attacks thwarted, trucks moving to and from Iraq prior to invasion… just what is going on there?

Political Maneuverings
Another issue of concern to me at the moment is the role that Hizb’allah is playing between both the opposition and Syria. While the United States considers Hizb’allah a terrorist organization, they are considered much less corrupt and are actually quite popular in Lebanon. At the moment they are pro-Syria, but like true opportunists, could switch sides in a bad turn for their financier.

Hours after Prime Minister Omar Karami and his cabinet announced their resignation on Monday, Lebanon’s myriad political groupings began tense negotiations over who would run a caretaker government to oversee a parliamentary election scheduled for May. With parliament almost evenly split between pro-Syrian loyalists and the opposition, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah looks to hold the deciding seats.

The opposition is now actively appealing to the militant group to remain true to its roots as a liberation movement and join the push to oust Syria from Lebanon. In recent remarks, Walid Jumblatt, one of the main leaders of the anti-Syrian opposition, has gone out of his way to praise Hezbollah’s head, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, as a “great leader,” and has repeatedly called on him to join the opposition.

“There is a lot of contact with Hezbollah going on right now,” said one opposition figure familiar with the talks, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Would Hizb’allah joining the opposition be a bad thing? In the short-term, at least it would help get the Syrians out. In the long term? The thought to consider most of all is how Hizb’allah is an internally grown organization with extensive support in Lebanon, though it receives funds and arms from Syria and Iran.

Hizbollah has traditionally been backed by Syria but Sheikh Nasrallah has recognised the strength of anti-Syrian feeling in Lebanon. The nation, not to mention the world, will be waiting to see which way Hizbollah tilts.

Although denounced by America as a terrorist organisation, it stands to play a major part in Lebanon’s future with the tacit approval of Washington, which has led international demands for the Syrians to leave.

In Haret Hareik, the southern suburb of Beirut, the party enjoys huge support. There is not a hooded gunman or rocket-propelled grenade to be seen as the party attempts a dramatic make-over.

“We are not a foreign body forced from outside into Lebanon. We are at the heart of the body of Lebanon,” Hussein Naboulsi said at the party’s headquarters.

There is no way that America can simply get rid of Hizb’allah, but externally and internally it can be delegitimized. Israel and the United States are currently pushing for it to be put on the EU’s terrorist organization list.

Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom called on the European Union on Monday to add the Lebanese guerrilla group Hezbollah to its list of terrorist groups ???????? a step that Europe has so far been reluctant to take.

Shalom said he reiterated the long-standing Israeli request during a meeting with his Belgian counterpart, Karel De Gucht.

Shalom told reporters that Hezbollah operates dozens of cells, works closely with violent Palestinian groups and offers them millions of dollars in assistance. “We see they make every effort to sabotage progress in the peace process,” Shalom said.

De Gucht said the Israeli request “will be analyzed thoroughly” in Belgium, and that his government will take a formal stance on the issue ahead of upcoming EU talks on its list of terrorist groups. The EU talks are expected sometime after March, he said.

They have a good reason to be afraid. If they are cut off by the EU, not only will they not be legitimate in the eyes of any nation of importance, but they can and will have their funding cut off to a large extent as well. Hizb’allah is even expressing this fear vocally.

If the European Union follows Israeli recommendations this week and places Hezbollah on a list of official terror organizations, the economic consequences of sanctions would “destroy” the Lebanese terror group, Hezbollah’s leader told Arabic language television.
…
Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said European blacklisting would “destroy” his group.

Designating Hezbollah a terror group in Europe will mean “the sources of ÄourÅ funding will dry up and the sources of moral, political and material support will be destroyed,” Nasrallah told Al Manar, Hezbollah’s satellite television station.

“The political option Äused by the IsraelisÅ, which is more important and dangerous, is manifested by the Israeli-Zionist unceasing efforts to lay siege to ÄHezbollahÅ in Lebanon and in the future in Palestine and globally, internationally, regionally and even locally in Lebanon. That is the most dangerous challenge we have had to face during the past few years, and we stand firm today and will stand firm in the future,” said Nasrallah.

I hope that France, who is reluctant to do this, is not purposely being short-sighted. They are taking the realist approach in allowing Hizb’allah to operate in favor of smoother progress. But what could be smoother than eliminating the group that everyone fears will fill the power vacuum post-revolution?

Despite how Israel is presenting its case, the immediate importance of getting rid of Hizb’allah is to prevent them from obtaining more political legitimacy in Lebanon. In terms of the Palestinian territories, well, there are several groups causing trouble there, whereas Hizb’allah is relatively unique to Lebanon. These sanctions and fund-freezing efforts may be just what is needed to create a better, more democratic opposition that wields the reins to Lebanon. Hizb’allah is also rightly wrapped up in the Bekaa Valley, just another reason it is dangerous to keep them legitimate.

Now, speaking of the main anti-Syria opposition, Walid Jumblatt is going on tour, but for what, the article does not say.

KUWAIT CITY, March 5 (AFP) – Lebanese opposition leader Walid Jumblatt arrived in Kuwait on Saturday for a three nation tour that will also take him to Saudi Arabia and Russia, sources said.

Jumblatt arrived in the emirate at dawn on a trip organised by the office of Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, diplomatic sources said.

He was due to leave around midday (0900 GMT) for Saudi Arabia, the sources added, as the visit remained off-limits to the press.

Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed al-Sabah told reporters here last Wednesday that Jumblatt would be visiting the emirate but would not specify when or why.

The minister also said Jumblatt would not be issuing any statements concerning Syria while in Kuwait.

Somehow, I doubt that. While the countries are currently denouncing Syrian occupation, Jumblatt is going around to get their support for the opposition. In response, President Lahoud may be forming a pro-Syria “confrontational cabinet” to oppose the independence struggle.

President Lahoud is determined to reject the opposition demand that Lebanon’s principal security commanders be fired for failing to prevent Hariri’s assassination, threatening to form a Syrian-backed “confrontational government” to smother the opposition-sponsored ‘Independence Uprising,’ the local media reported on Saturday.
An Nahar said Lahoud was insisting on the formation of a national union government with its priorities focused on investigating Hariri’s murder in cooperation with U.N. investigators, conducting free and fair parliamentary elections in spring and overseeing the implementation of all provisions of the Taif Accord.

Lahoud spelled out the new government’s priorities that ignored the demand for the security services purge in a meeting he held with ex-Premier and elder statesman Selim Hoss at the Baabda Palace Friday. Hoss, who is widely tipped to head a government of national unity, is scheduled to travel to Damascus Sunday or Monday to meet President Assad.

Sources close to Lahoud said he planned to hold the mandatory consultations with parliament bloc leaders on Monday or Tuesday to designate a new premier. If a consensus with the opposition on a national unity government proves unattainable by next week, Lahoud would form a “government of confrontation” that would “smother opposition agitation on Beirut’s streets.”

The non-stop sits-in and demonstrations at Hariri’s graveside in downtown Beirut should not be allowed to show that the opposition represents the majority of the Lebanese population, one source said, suggesting the army and police would crackdown on the three-week-old protests by activists of various Christian and Muslim groups from all over the country.

There was no word on whether the “confrontational government’ would mean a military junta or just a cabinet made up predominantly of Syrian loyalists itching to show that they are still a viable force in Lebanon despite the opposition monopoly of the spotlights in the post-Hariri era.

It would be impossible to have free and transparent elections without the dispatchment of the Syrian clandestine intelligence. This comes on the heels of the news that the opposition is thinking about a second uprising. It is anyone’s guess who would win this one — but you know who I side with. The United States, through its Al-Hurra TV network, has said that the Pentagon favors an airstrike to topple Assad and free Lebanon.

The Pentagon is now convinced that air strikes on Syria have become necessary to overthrow the Assad regime, liberate Lebanon and stop support of insurgents waging a guerrilla war against American forces in Iraq as well as Palestinian militants against Israel, the U.S.-sponsored Al Hurra TV network says.
“Political action to deal with the problem of Syria’s presence in Lebanon and its support of terrorism against Israel and Iraq is no longer deemed effective,” Al Hurra quoted American intelligence sources as saying, according to slain ex-Premier Hariri’s Al Mustaqbal newspaper on Friday.

“Diplomacy as a means to deal with countries supporting terrorism is over and out. The situation is now open to all eventualities as far as Syria is concerned,” the sources were quoted as saying by the Arabic-language Al Hurra.

“Resolving problems with Syria now requires changing the Syrian regime or mounting air attacks similar to those staged against Afghanistan and Sudan in August 1998 to wipe out terrorist centers once and for all,” the U.S. intelligence sources were quoted as saying.

“The U.S. central command for Iraq and Afghanistan is closely following the situation in Lebanon and Syria and senior Pentagon officials are now convinced that hitting terrorist targets in Syria is necessary,” Al Hurra said.

“The elimination of Syrian-supported terrorism groups is now deemed ‘strategically vital’ for stability in the Middle east, particularly Iraq, which is unattainable at present under the current Syrian regime,” the station said.

A hit on Syria would work and force them into a situation of complete withdrawal from Lebanon. Assad would likely crumble very quickly given his already shaky grip on the country, especially if he loses the billions his secret services collect from Lebanon every year.

There is also the interesting demographic situation of Lebanon to watch over in regards to economy. Currently there are up to one million illegal Syrian workers in Lebanon that work for half the wages that a Lebanese would. More:

As the crisis develops, most of Syria’s larger, unofficial army of poor labourers, who used to do work that was too low-paid or demeaning for the Lebanese, have already left.

Building sites in Beirut lie abandoned and the platoon of shoe-shiners who formerly patrolled Hamra Street waving their brushes at Starbucks customers have gone.

Nobody is sure how many ordinary Syrians there were – possibly several hundred thousand – but fear has driven them out. Since Hariri’s assassination, Syrian workers have been beaten up and three have had their throats slit, according to diplomats.

Syrian students at the Lebanese American University have been asking staff if it is safe for them to continue their studies; to which the answer, so far, has been yes.

Lebanese opposition leaders have been insisting that their quarrel with the Syrian regime must not turn racist.

It was Syrian sweat that rebuilt much of Lebanon after the civil war, but the Lebanese are not particularly grateful. They complain that instead of spending money in Lebanon, Syrian workers sent most of their wages home.

Nor are the Lebanese much troubled at losing the people who did the dirty jobs. “We’ll get Indians and Sri Lankans instead,” a hotel manager said.

Interesting. There is some Syrian citizen backlash to this.

What are the blogs saying?
Rich reports on the proceedings of UN investigations as well as the possibility of Syria being bought off by Saudi Arabia.

More comments on the explosives and Syria from Tony. And don’t forget to read this joke about Syria.

Syria comment is always interesting to check out, so read the linked post.

There is a discussion going on among Lebanese bloggers over whether or not the Bush Doctrine affected the revolution.

Here is an interview with a Lebanese journalist discussing prospects for democracy in the Middle East.

Max Boot has written a column called “Neocons may get the last laugh.” The Word Unheard agrees. Ralph Peters says not to get cocky, yet.

That’s it folks. I’m looking forward to hearing exactly what Assad says later on today.