Who knew? The exit polls were pretty accurate.

The president of ex-Soviet Moldova, a former ally of Moscow now committed to European integration, looked well placed in a parliamentary election on Sunday with an exit poll giving his Communists a healthy lead.

But the poll also showed two opposition parties doing well enough to deny the Communists under President Vladimir Voronin the outright majority they currently enjoy.

Voronin, who campaigned on forging closer ties with the West, accuses Russia of interference by helping separatists in the Russian-speaking Dnestr region. The Communists’ rivals say they lack democratic credentials and intend to rig the contest.

The campaign has taken on overtones of liberal movements in Ukraine and Georgia and could again test the Kremlin’s influence in the former Soviet country, one of the poorest in Europe.

The exit poll, funded by two independent television channels and based on data gathered by mid-afternoon from 225 polling stations, gave the Communists 42 percent.

Coming second with 28 percent was the centrist Democratic Moldova Bloc, which seeks good ties with Moscow and the West. The pro-Romanian Christian Democrats were third with 14 percent.

Parliament elects the president in ex-Soviet Moldova and the Communists currently hold 71 of its 101 seats.

They understated the communist victory by about 5%, but it still wasn’t enough to give them even an outright majority.

With nearly 99 percent of the votes counted, Voronin’s Communists had some 46 percent of the vote in Sunday’s election, down from the 50 percent the party polled in 2001 elections, the Central Electoral Commission said.

The centrist Democratic Moldova Bloc won about 28 percent of the vote, almost double the 14 percent won by bloc member Braghis Alliance in the previous election. The center-right Popular Christian Democratic Party won nearly 10 percent of the vote, slightly more than it got in 2001.

Only the three parties, out of 15 vying for 101 seats, managed to get enough votes to enter Parliament. A party must get 6 percent of the vote to win seats in parliament.

Under Moldovan election law, the remaining 16 percent of the vote — split between 12 parties that meet the 6 percent threshold — would be redistributed among the three parties that won seats.

The Communists were projected to win 56 seats, which would be enough to form a government. However, they would fall five seats short of the minimum 61 parliamentary seats, or three-fifths majority, needed to choose the president. Parliament has 45 days to choose the president, after which it must hold new parliamentary elections.

I wasn’t initially excited about the opposition’s prospects here, or their ties to Moscow (great commentary on Russian ties and planshere), but this could turn out to be very interesting. While the opposition is somewhat fragmented right now, they could potentially unite on their broader ideals and prevent Voronin from gathering the necessary votes he needs. Two things could happen then: the communists would have to settle for a more agreeable candidate in order to get the necessary votes, or the opposition could stall parliament altogether.

If 61 votes are not achieved for a candidate within three tries, parliament is dissolved and a new parliamentary election is held. This would potentially garner even more votes toward the opposition.

There are supposed to be some protests staged today. More on that as they materialize. This revolution, if it as well materializes, is certainly looking a lot different than the others we’ve witnessed.

UPDATE: Observers say election met standards. Still no word on protests.