Here is a news roundup for March 8, in as close to chronological order as I think I can get (input welcome!)and then various perspectives from the region’s bloggers, filling out details the media has missed. I will update as more info becomes available. If anyone sees more good Bolivian blogs I have missed, please let me know either on the comments board or at my email: ammorayleon at gmail.com

There are huge ups and downs in Bolivia and its story moves like mercury – every time I go back to check on stories, dramatic new developments happen – almost by the minute, However, it seems to be stabilizing as news gets more feature-y and now perhaps the biggest question is, will the fragile accord to keep President Mesa in office hold?

TUESDAY, MARCH 8, 2005

State Dept, via NZ Scoop: The U.S. offers support for President Mesa. A State Department spokesman says: “The United States remains firmly and fully committed to President Mesa as the constitutional President of Bolivia. We expect that the current political crisis will be resolved in a peaceful and democratic manner consistent with the Bolivian constitution. We call upon the political leaders of Bolivia to work together to reach a national consensus in favor of a more stable and prosperous Bolivia,” he said.

Xinhua: Chile says it is “only an observer” in the political crisis affecting Bolivia and however it develops will not affect its relations (historically troubled but warming up under President Mesa) with Bolivia.

The OAS: The OAS acting secretary general seemed to offer a statement of support for President Mesa … but not exactly. The A-S-G said he was hoping for a ‘rapid resolution to the current political crisis,’ with some allusion to serving democracy. If I were President Mesa, I wouldn’t count on this guy. Was it too hard for him to come out in favor of President Mesa – even when Mesa seemed to be winning?

Associated Press: A Brasilian government minister says the turmoil in Bolivia will not interrupt shipments of natural gas because it never has in the past.

Associated Press: Congress unaminously votes to reject President Mesa’s resignation letter. Thousands of Mesa supporters waving the Bolivian flag thronged around Congress, urging them to persuade him to stay – and Congress apparently got the political message of their numbers.

Reuters: Congress’ main opposition parties refuse to go along with President Mesa’s terms for staying in office, a development that could mean his resignation is irrevocable. At issue is the right of the Morales groups to blockade roads and conduct other strikes, which Mesa opposes. Hundreds of Mesa supporters are gathered around the presidential palace, urging Mesa to not resign.

NarcoNews: Congress has just begun its night session and Evo Morales’ MAS party has broken off all contact with the Mesa administration over the question of whether he can still set up urban protests and highway blockades. It is believed that all the parties will go along with the Mesa conditions except Morales. That in turn will isolate him. Although this is a far-left news site, the reporting here is detached and informative.

Reuters: President Mesa has just withdrawn his resignation letter, apparently unable to come to an agreement with Morales, or else firmly secure that Morales is defeated. Mesa’s move defies warnings by indigenous leaders of a new wave of street protests. This leaves Morales in the dust. Thousands of supporters are serenading Mesa who’s now being hailed a a hero in downtown La Paz. (Lot of pictures with this story.)

FT: President Mesa will stay in office after striking a deal and has made a statesmanlike speech calling on the whole nation to demonstrate tomorrow against Evo Morales’ roadside blockades.

FT: Part of the agreement President Mesa has secured demands the dismantling of about a dozen roadblocks. And he’s gotten his demands met because he really is popular. FT also notes that the Indian groups have accepted President Mesa out of concern for who might follow him.

Agencia EFE: Support for Morales’ roadside blockades has evaporated. The only leftist protests remaining survive in Morales’ coca-leaf growing region of Chapara. Everyone else has rallied around President Mesa. EFE also has an excellent summary of what is at stake in Bolivia in this crisis, here:

…”How are we Bolivians going to treat foreign investment?” Paz Zamora told a TV station.
Legislator Hugo Carvajal, who was present at a meeting of legislators of the various parties represented in Congress, said the government does not want the hydrocarbons law that is finally passed to allow for unilateral modification of contracts signed with private companies. It also does not want the government’s share of oil production to rise from 18 to 50 percent or for Indians to have the right to veto oil drilling.

Local and foreign energy industry executives say the Bolivian left’s proposed overhaul of the natural gas industry amounts to nationalization, that it breaches existing contracts and will scare foreign investment out of the Andean nation.

Xinhua: Most of Latin America has come out in support of President Mesa. Xinhua reports: “Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay are among the nations whose governments openly supported Mesa to continue to be the head of the Bolivian government. Argentine President Nestor Kirchner held a long telephone conversation with Mesa, in which he expressed his support.” That detail about Kirchner is important because Argentina is beset with the same kinds of road-blocking protestors that Bolivia has — blocking roads, shaking down motorists, demanding communism. Kirchner may be thinking about getting rid of his own piqueteros, too.

Xinhua: Hugo Chavez unexpectedly declares support for President Mesa. He says he phoned the Bolivian president from Qatar to offer support. The timing of this story is uncertain – he may have said it just now or earlier today when it first appeared that Mesa was triumphant. He offered it after the US and OAS did, and he didn’t say it when President Mesa looked like he was on the outs. My guess is, Lula of Brasil may have persuaded him to join the consensus, which includes the South American pragmatic left, too. Or Chavez noticed which way the wind is blowing. It could also mean Chavez has written off Evo Morales. Still, Chavez’s support could be helpful to bring peace to Bolivia as he persuades Morales to give it up and stop destroying the country.

New York Times: Juan Forero has another tremendously good article on the simmering background of this turmoil. He points out things that no one else in the media has – that the Indian capital of El Alto has a booming business community of furniture makers, jewelry makers, small manufacturers and other exporters, who would very much benefit from free trade in the Americas as George Bush is advocating (and Hugo Chavez is obstructing). What’s more, he points out that Bolivia is the most protectionist country in the Americas and oh by the way the most poor too – indirectly damning those who would tell us that free trade harms Latin America, which is now poorer than ever. Forero also outlines Washington’s steady progress in pushing the issue – Mexico, Chile, Dominican Republic, the Central American States, and very soon Colombia, Peru and Ecuador are all signing on to free trade. Forero has lots of good information about the trade pact issue, but quotes a Classic Latin American Idiot at the very end, which I suppose is ok since it tells us such dinosaurs are still out there, but does frame the debate in a distorted way, making it look as though free trade is about “paying.” Maybe he had to do that to appease his editors, given the good sense of the rest of his article.

Press release: All this, and Bolivia is getting VoIP.

BBC: I knew someone was going to do a story like this – leave it up to the treacly British! Here is the story: Bolivia is poor. Bolivia is very poor. Bolivia is so poor you can’t believe it! Bolivia is poor. OK Bolivia is poor. This article contains none of the insight that NYT shows as to WHY Bolivia is poor.

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Here is a good background paper published today on The American Thinker on the situation in Bolivia, written by Bolivian-American A.M. Fantini. There are strong details about Morales’ extortion rackets against the Indians and a warning to the State Department to pay more attention to this country.

Here is an incredibly interesting account from Venezuela’s Daniel in Yaracuy of the television appearance Evo Morales made on Hugo Chavez’s talk show in Venezuela. It’s almost a transcript and you will not believe your eyes. This is a must read.

Randy Paul at the excellent Beautiful Horizons was the first to notice the mushiness of the State Department’s and OAS’ reaction – and he’s not impressed. He’s also the first to raise the question of the military’s potential role. He has good analysis about the tug of war between factions that President Mesa must endure. It’s worth reading.

Ciao’s Miguel reports some additional very important details about the military – he says the military came out in support of democracy but was tellingly wearing combat fatigues instead of customary dress uniforms – he says that speaks mountains – be sure to take a look at that!

MABB’s Miguel has a tremendous analysis on the likely course of action. Like Randy and Ciao’s Miguel, he sees the role of the military as pivotal – something none of the news reports have touched on. This analyis below is just amazing, such an eye opener:

If congress accepts the letter, they will have to elect another president. The next in-line is the Senate Ppresident, Mr Hormando Vaca Diez. But, this is an already troubled choice. Mr Vaca Diez has very little support in congress and he has already been singled-out by Evo and his party as a potential enemy. You see, Mr. Vaca Diez comes from Santa Cruz and belongs to the Movement for the Revolutionary Left party. This alone makes him an enemy of Evo and the “movement”. The same reasoning goes for the third person in the line of succession who is Mr Cossio (MNR, born in Tarija), the president of the Deputies Chamber.

But, this considerations are a little bit out of place. Right after Mr Mesa sent his letter to congress, the leaders of all the factions started to talk together. On Monday, they met and according to news reports, the buzz was that the first thing they agreed on was that Mr Mesa should finish his term. I even read that after the meeting, Evo concurred that Mesa should finish his term. However, and this is why I think this move is intelligent, Mr Mesa is using his leverage good and asking for a compromise to let him govern in peace.

and it just gets better. MABB’s Miguel also has a list of headlines around the region that give the flavor of how this story is being covered and viewed. Don’t miss this post.

DE’s Miguel in Caracas, Venezuela, says Chavez’s remarks in support of President Mesa is genuinely helpful and statesmanlike. For once, Chavez, who did so much to bring the crisis to a boiling point, is throwing water, and not crude oil, onto this fire. Be sure to see this one, too.