A lot has unfolded since the last roundup. There have been massive demonstrations organized by Hizb’allah, the deposed Prime Minister has just signed back on, Syria is quickening its pullout, and the U.S. is beginning to accept that Hizb’allah can’t be taken out of the picture yet. As I have said over and over, where Hizb’allah goes will determine a lot of the political landscape of Lebanon’s future.

Now, just about everyone knows about the massive pro-Syria rally that Hizb’allah held on Tuesday.

Disciplined and well-organised, Hizbollah mobilised about 200,000 supporters, although the day was carefully presented as a display of national sentiment rather than a party rally.

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the organisation’s chief, decreed that no party banners were to be displayed and the masses obeyed. All that could be seen were thousands of red and white Lebanese flags fluttering in the wind.

“I am here to show the whole world that those other demonstrators do not speak for all Lebanese people,” said Ali Muhammad, a Beirut businessman.

There are two major things that I want to point out here, and that is the actual number of Lebanese that were present at the pro-Syria rally and Israel’s detrimental involvement in this matter. Now, it doesn’t take a political scientist to know that everything Israel does is used flipped around and made bad by the Arab world. In this case, Sharon has called for Syria to completely withdraw. From the original article:

“We are the majority and for us the Syrians are the friends who helped us end the Israeli occupation of Lebanon.

“If you put Israel out of the door, they will come back in through the window and that is through America.”

And there was a lot more where that came from. Effectively, Nasrallah was able to turn comments made by Israel to make U.S. look like its puppet, as is typical, to shore up support.

Shalom and other Israeli officials expressed unequivocal support for the Lebanese opposition and what their protest could mean for Israel.

“I think there is a real wish by the Lebanese people to free themselves from Syrian occupation. I hope freedom from Syrian occupation will give them freedom and independence and the possibility of maybe holding a dialogue with the state of Israel,” Shalom told Army Radio in a telephone interview during a visit to Budapest.

“We have no dispute with Lebanon, no dispute about territory, no economic dispute. The only reason that they are not at peace with us is because they were occupied by the Syrians,” he said.

Lebanese opposition groups are being careful to identify with pan-Arab goals and are wary of being identified with the US, much less Israel.

The U.S. has scolded Israel to restrain itself, as the people of Lebanon remain highly suspicious of the intentions of Israel and anyone related to them.

The United States has asked Israel to stop making statements about the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon. Washington believes these comments undermine American interests in the area by serving the interests of extremists in Arab countries who oppose the reforms that President George W. Bush wants to bring to Syria and other Arab nations.
…
The Americans are also displeased with reports that Israel is demanding that the United States and Europe not reduce their pressure for a complete withdrawal of both Syrian forces and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. A Western diplomatic source said, “You don’t have to be a political genius to understand that public pressure from Israel for steps to be taken against Syria on the Lebanon issue could boomerang, since it would turn the U.S. and Europe, in Arab eyes, into puppets of Israel.”

The Israelis really should have thought about this one first. More on Israeli conspiracy theories here. However, despite those protesting who would be Shiite, I do doubt the actual “Lebanese” portion of the pro-Syria rally from Tuesday. For this exercise, I will be using the CIA Factbook and the Lebanese Global Information Center.

Now, the article notes that the Shiite population is just over 30%, and that is being generous. According to the factbook, Lebanon’s population was 3,777,218 as of July, 2004. Divided, we get 1,133,165. The rally was almost entirely male, so divided in half, we now have 566,582 total Shiite Lebanese that could have potentially participated in the rally. What does all of this mean? Go here to find out. I had wanted to do a similar post earlier but was busy doing my graduation research paper. However, after you read that post, there is one more thing that you need to know. From the Lebanon Global Information Center:

Who might falsely claim being Lebanese?
Two main groups of people may claim being Lebanese. The first group is some people from surrounding regions, especially when abroad, since Lebanese are known among the most open-minded nations in the region. The second group is the people who were illegally naturalized by Syrian occupation forces in Lebanon about ten years ago. The Syrian totalitarian regime is trying to change the ethnic and religious demography of Lebanon since it fell completely to Syrian occupation in 1990. Since then, Syria imposed a proxy regime, forced more than 30% of Lebanese population to leave the country, and granted Lebanese nationality to an equivalent percentage of mainly Syrians and Palestinians. In May 2003, the highest judiciary council in Lebanon rejected the naturalization. However, many of these Palestinians and Syrians travel around the world holding Lebanese passports claiming being Lebanese.

There were some people doubting the possibility of this in his comments section, but I don’t think there is any doubt as to the majority of the constituency at the rally. Of course there were Shiite. Of course Syria has support, and so does Hizb’allah, but to think that Hizb’allah would not turn out that many foreigners is ridiculous. Excellent thoughts on Hizb’allah at Tony’s blog.

UPDATE: SUSPICIONS CONFIRMED:

JERUSALEM ???????? The giant Hezbollah rally that drew nearly half a million purported supporters of Syria’s occupation of Lebanon included non-Lebanese citizens, Syrian workers, students and municipal employees coerced into joining the protest, former Lebanese Prime Minister Michel Aoun told WorldNetDaily in an exclusive interview this morning.

“Yesterday’s huge protest calling for Syria to stay made it look to the world like a large segment of the Lebanese population actually wants to live under Syrian occupation,” said Aoun, speaking to WND from Paris. “But the protest wasn’t what it appeared to be. It was an elaborately staged affair.”
…
“This was not a Lebanese showing, and many of those who actually were Lebanese were not there because they support Syria. We know that at least three Palestinian camps were present. And there are 700,000 Syrian workers inside Lebanon, many of whom are not even supposed to be there. They were urged by Syria to attend so it looks like many Lebanese are protesting. Plus Syria bused in their own citizens from Syria through the border into Lebanon to join the rally.”

The former prime minister also accused Hezbollah and pro-Syrian Lebanese intelligence forces of coercing students and municipal workers to attend.

“They shut down the schools and all the government and public buildings and pressured students and workers to get to the rally,” he said.

Similar charges were made to WND this morning by a spokesperson for Lebanon’s Progressive Socialist Party.

Aoun said Hezbollah was able to legitimately bring some of its own followers. The Lebanese militant group maintains a sizable constituency of the Shia population, to which it provides social welfare services ranging from education to medical care. In the outlying heavily Shiite regions of the Bekaa Valley and the south, Aoun says, Hezbollah “drove through the streets with loudspeakers urging followers to get to Beirut for the protest.”

“In all, it was a real multinational rally,” joked Aoun. “Even watching protestors being interviewed, you hear they had Palestinian and Syrian accents. This was not the Lebanese people expressing their will.”

Aoun compared yesterday’s rally to the opposition events held almost daily.

“Yesterday was not a spontaneous outpouring; it was planned and orchestrated,” he said. “You see in the opposition rallies that they happen every day. People are going because they want to, and they are going regularly.”

Read all of that. All of it. One last piece of information I forgot to add was that many in the crowd “singing” Lebanon’s national anthem did not know the words.

Now, speaking of Hizb’allah, their rally had a massive effect on Lahoud’s decision today to reinstate Karameh as the Prime Minister.

BEIRUT – Pro-Syrian politician Omar Karameh agreed Thursday to return as Lebanon’s prime minister at the head of a national unity cabinet, in a move promptly rejected by the opposition as a “provocation.”

Just ten days after quitting amid anti-Syrian mass protests, Karameh was designated by Damascus protege President Emile Lahoud to form a cabinet which he asked his opponents to join or bear the responsibility of a political and economic “catastrophe.”

Opposition MPs immediately rejected the offer, triggering fears for an aggravation of the political crisis in which the country was plunged since the February 14 murder of ex-premier Rafiq Hariri — blamed by many on the regime and its political masters in Damascus.

What the rally proved was not that the Lebanese came out in support of Syria, but that Hizb’allah has some major muscle behind its ability to have people turn out — or for making people turn out. As you’ve read, this was done by bussing people from Syria, by forcing people to close shop and join the rally, etc. Rich writes an on-site account of this happening. Another account here.

Karameh has called for a “national unity government” that would keep Lebanon out of financial crisis, otherwise he would resign again (much to our dismay I’m sure).

“I have accepted the designation because a prolonged power vacuum would plunge Lebanon into financial abyss and force a cancellation of the spring elections for a new Lebanese parliament,” Karami told reporters after an acceptance meeting with the President in Baabda.

“I am going to conduct my own consultations with the opposition on Monday and Tuesday and invite participation in a national salvation government. If the opposition refuses to join it will heave to bear the full responsibility for the catastrophic economic, financial and political consequences,” Karami said.

The pro-Syrian Karami stretched out his hand to the anti-Syria opposition to enter into a national reconciliation dialogue within the framework of the salvation government.

“I have no preconditions and I have no veto against any particular issue. The opposition is welcome to throw on the table all issues and demands and we will discuss them and reach decisions about them freely,” said Karami.

“One thing is certain,” he asserted. “I will not be the prime minister of a one-party or one-color government like my previous cabinet.”

Karami is caught in the crossfire of Syria’s determination to remain the undisputed power broker in Lebanon as its army and intelligence personnel are withdrawing from the country and U.S. insistence on a new government reflecting the will of the Lebanese free from Syrian influence.

Sources close to Karami earlier said he is insisting on a freer hand to pick or exclude cabinet ministers, a process which has been heavily influenced by the president of the republic and the speaker of parliament since the installment of the troika system of government after the 1975-1990 civil war.

Forty-nine legislators who boycotted Lahoud’s mandatory designation consultations reflect a significant boost of the anti-Syria opposition strength since the Feb. 14 assassination of ex-premier Hariri.

Ex-Prime Minister Aoun made some very insightful comments today regarding this very thing.

PARIS – The re-appointment of a pro-Syrian politician as prime minister of Lebanon is not the key issue in the current crisis, said exiled Maronite leader Michel Aoun on Thursday, adding that the real problem was the presence of Syrian troops.

Speaking to AFP from his home in France as Omar Karameh agreed to return to his post as premier just 10 days after stepping down amid mass street protests, Aoun said it was not a bad thing that Karameh would be in charge of day-to-day business.

“That he is appointed for a second time is an affair for parliament, it’s a question of votes” in the assembly, he said.

The choice of Karameh “is not the people’s choice, because the people are on the other side,” said Aoun, himself a former prime minister of a contested military government.

Commenting on Karameh’s call for the formation of a government of national unity in Lebanon, the exiled army general said it would have little effect.

The key task was to solve the mystery of who killed former prime minister Rafiq Hariri on February 14, the event that sparked the crisis, he said.

“The outgoing government is itself suspected of having neglected its duties regarding the killing” of Hariri, he said.

“You can’t just talk about national salvation and turn the page — there’s some business to be settled,” he said.

I actually agree with him. The opposition is vehemently opposing this appointment, obviously, and Karameh’s legitimacy (and Lahoud’s for that matter) are shot with the accusations of being involved in the murder. By solving Hariri’s murder, and if Syria is implicated, it would serve to both legitimize the opposition and delegitimize the current government. That way we won’t see any more of this pro-Syria garbage any more. Certainly, if Syria’s intelligence is gone by the elections in May — and assuming that illegal Syrian workers are prevented from voting — the makeup of Parliament will be much more favorable to the opposition. The numbers can only be boosted if the incredibly large expat community is given the chance to vote.

Hizb’allah still remains a major concern for these elections, however, especially since it is so intent on staying armed. The New York Times reports that the U.S. is grudgingly going along with recognizing Hizb’allah as a political party.

“The main players are making Hezbollah a lower priority,” said a diplomat who is closely tracking the negotiations. “There is a realization by France and the United States that if you tackle Hezbollah now, you array the Shiites against you. With elections coming in Lebanon, you don’t want the entire Shiite community against you.”

The new posture of the administration was described by its officials, who asked not to be identified because of longstanding American antipathy toward Hezbollah.

“Hezbollah has American blood on its hands,” an administration official said, referring to such events as the truck bombing that killed more than 200 American marines in Beirut in 1983. “They are in the same category as Al Qaeda. The administration has an absolute aversion to admitting that Hezbollah has a role to play in Lebanon, but that is the path we’re going down.”

Oh, the rampant use of anonymous sources! Not being Dan Rather, I suppose Steven R. Weisman won’t get too much beef for this (whoever he is). Just as easily as Weisman made up these quotes, Dr. Rice denied them.

MEXICO CITY – US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Thursday that the US opinion of Hezbollah as a “terrorist” organization has not changed despite the group’s showing its major political influence in Lebanon this week with a huge demonstration in Beirut.

Speaking to reporters on a plane bound for Mexico, Rice said the US opinion has not changed even though The New York Times had reported earlier that the United States was grudgingly moving into line with efforts by France and the United Nations to get the Shiite group into the Lebanese political mainstream.

Nonetheless, it is better to do what PM Aoun said. The United States needs to keep its eye on the goal of removing the Syrians and having free elections in May. A transparent voting process should sort the problem out soon enough. The Daily Star has an article citing various varied protestor viewpoints, while at the same time noting the totally unified opposition. Well, all that means is that the pro-Syria people have lost supporters since Feb. 14.

One last thing that happened was a pro-Syria protest inside of Syria organized by the Syrian government. It is hardly something to mention, really.

DAMASCUS, March 9 (Xinhuanet) — Tens of thousands of Syrians swarmed into a main street in Damascus on Wednesday to dedicate their support to President Bashar al-Assad who was under immense world pressure to pull out troops from Lebanon.

Waving national flags and beating drums, demonstrators coming from around the country flooded the Mazzeh street in the wealthy Mazzeh district, chanting “with our souls and blood we sacrifice ourselves for Assad.”

Holding up pictures of their young leader, his late father former President Hafez al-Assad and head of the Lebanese Hezbollahgroup Hassan Nasrallah, demonstrators pledged to stand by Lebanon and denounced foreign pressures on Syria.

Here is an account by blogger Ammar Abdulhamid, who is in Damascus.

There is no measuring the level of disgust I feel right now. Nor the level of angst. Nor the level of sheer terror. 80s flashbacks notwithstanding, it is the mediocrity of it all that is at the heart of it all, at the heart of the way I feel.

2:00 pm. Send in the clowns.

And what clowns they were. The great majority of those gathered to demonstrate their ???????support of the President??????? were children and teenagers, all too happy and jubilant to be taken out of their schools to have a bit of fun, walking down the streets waving flags, giggling, pushing, shoving, running around, stopping cars, forcing the helpless drivers to let them hitch a ride so they can wave the flags from the windows ???????? free to create havoc in the name of the President and the homeland. Oh what show of strength that was.

This is the essence of my disgust: our leaders can????????t tell the difference between mediocrity and strength.

Still, even a mediocre inquisitor has sufficient power to detain and torture. This is the essence of my fear. And my terror. My would-be torturer will be a mediocre figure, working for a mediocre President, in a mediocre country, going through mediocre crises, that could have been averted through the application of a mediocre amount of wisdom (they had none), still the torture will be no less painful.

The sign posted next to my apartment block says: ???????We are all with you??????????????

to the bitter end, of course. For what other end could the likes of him offer for the likes of us?

To paraphrase Glenn Reynolds, “Indeed.” (Cross-posted over at Blogger News Network.)

ADDENDUM: Alright, I have secondary confirmation that Syrians made up a huge part of the crowd. I asked Tony about it, and he sent me this article from Al Seyassah. It’s in Arabic, so he told me what it means:

it claims that 118,000 Syrians were brought. 38,289 were soldiers from
various platoons and brigades (the report lists them) dressed up as
civilians. and 80,000 were workers who were bussed in. Rich left a comment
on my latest post that LBC in Lebanon went down to the rally and INTERVIEWED
(live) people who had no problem admitting they were Syrians and that they
were told to attend.

There is also that satellite image argument that calculates the space of the
square (88,000 m2) and calculates 4 people per square m. It comes up to
about 350,000 people. Now, add people in some streets around the area (which
were let by the authorities who BLOCKED opposition demonstrators from doing
the same), and perhaps you’ll have something like 375,000 people. The 1
million figure is hilarious. The opposition gathered ü150,000-200,000,
SPONTANEOUS and volunteer protesters.

Having said all that, and despite a probable significant number of syrians
and palestinians, it must not be argued that Hizbullah didn’t gather a whole
lot of people. they did. they can. people will respond voluntarily, but also
many were “urged” to attend.

Tony also brought to my attention that indeed there were women at the rally. My mistake. The photos I had seen were comprised of mostly males. But Rich notes that they even admitted it on TV.