I was just reading the joint statement by the two for the strategic goals both the U.S. and Ukraine want to work on. Among these were promoting democracy in Cuba and Belarus, among resolving separatist conflicts in Georgia and Moldova.

We also commit to work together to back reform, democracy, tolerance and respect for all communities, and peaceful resolution of conflicts in Georgia and Moldova, and to support the advance of freedom in countries such as Belarus and Cuba. Citizens in our open societies value the freedom to practice their faiths, and we are committed to promoting religious tolerance globally.

This comes on the heels of Lukashenko and Russia reaffirming their commitment to a common currency among other initiatives that would bolster Russian support for Belarus’ dictatorship.

Belarus remains the only state on Russia’s western border that is not oriented toward Europe, says Deputy Director General of the Center for Political Technologies Alexei Makarkin. He says Putin has no alternative but to support the Belarussian regime.
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The two leaders successfully agreed upon the transit of natural gas, future WTO accession, and joint air defense policies. Although Moscow-Minsk cooperation does not seem to go beyond these “household” issues, Makarkin argues, Lukashenko in fact came to Russia to seek the Russian president’s support in the run-up to the 2006 presidential election.

With every movement in today’s Belarussian opposition Western-funded, and with their leaders frantically developing various scenarios for another “velvet” revolution, whoever takes over from the current Belarussian authorities will most likely turn the country westward. Accordingly, whatever many figures in the Russian elite might think about Lukashenko, Russia really has no other option but to support him.

At the same time, the analyst doubts that Moscow will support the Lukashenko regime militarily in a crisis. Financial aid and economic preferences – notably, lower gas prices – are seen as much more viable and acceptable methods.

And coming from the European side is Bogdan Klich, a member of the EU Parliament writing a TechCentralStation column.

The EU as of 1 May has a 1,000 kilometer borderline with Belarus. Developments in Minsk should be of great importance in Brussels. It is in our interest that free market transformation and democratization of the political system emerge in that country.

In the European Parliament we are very critical of the policy of the Commission towards Belarus. It lacks a long-term vision and offers a strictly bureaucratic approach. We see only ad hoc initiatives that react to the situation, but do not stimulate it. We are reactive, and not pro-active.

The European Parliament’s specialized body for dealing with Belarus, the EP-Belarus Delegation, which I have the pleasure to chair, has on numerous occasions made it clear what the EU should do in order to weaken the regime. Already after the elections in Belarus last autumn we proposed a set of new measures along these lines: “isolate the regime, support the society”.

What I see happening here is basically the Russian counter-reaction to this strategy. While Europe tries to isolate the regime and support the people, Russia must support the regime that suppresses the people. Common currency, common airspace, gas deals; it’s all a way to tie the government in Minsk to that of Moscow. Alexei Makarkin believes that Russia will not intervene militarily should a revolution break out, and I believe that is correct. In the post-Soviet age, Russia is no longer behind the iron curtain of information and pressure, making military assistance a politically isolating move.

Regardless of Russian assistance, I’m setting at maximum September 2006 the date of Belarus’ revolution, the time of their next presidential election. No amount of gas deals and government dependence on Moscow will extend the government’s lifespan, as people power has a certain way of finding alternative means of reliance (read: looking westward).

Besides all of this, though, an opposition leader arrested in the protests two weeks ago is going up on trial and has bravely waived his right to legal counsel.

Andrey Klimau, an opposition activist who intends to run for president in 2006, has waived his right to legal counsel in his trial scheduled to begin on 6 April. He is accused of slandering Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in three books and a leaflet he authored. A statement released by state investigator Alyaksandr Pikaraw and cited by Belapan, notes that Klimau, “being an active opponent of the government system in the Republic of Belarus, guided by personal interests, seeking to fake opposition activities through provocative means and aiming to publicly defame the president of the Republic of Belarus, authored, arranged the publication and distribution of books and leaflets containing insults and knowingly false, humiliating information with regard to the president of the Republic of Belarus…” In an interview with Belapan, Klimau stated “I have deliberately rejected the help of attorneys. I know whom I’m up against, ÄI knowÅ that I’m a state criminal for the Belarusian court and I have no illusions about the trial. That’s why I’m ready to talk to these people from any viewpoint, but not from the point of view of the Belarusian laws because it is useless.” RK

Gateway Pundit has more on this. I think that if Lukashenko ever wanted to create another martyr for the opposition, this is the perfect way to do it.

When revolution does finally occur, however, there is going to be a lot of debate regarding the color or produce of it. Personally, I’m going with the cornflower, here’s why.

All this political peacockery has its detractors. President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus is appalled that one of his country’s beloved totems, the cornflower, might be used against him.

It’s all part of a plot by the West, he said.

“They consider that Belarus is ripe for some sort of an orange, or – I’m terrified to utter it out loud – some blue or cornflower revolution,” he was quoted as saying recently. “Such blue revolutions are the last thing we need.”

Indeed, it is all a vicious western plot to turn the cornflower against him.