Probably one of the least noticed news items of the day is the results of municipal elections in the Basque separatist region of Spain.

BILBAO, Spain, April 18 (Reuters) – Spain’s ruling Socialists declared Basque premier Juan Jose Ibarretxe’s plan for virtual independence from Madrid dead on Monday after he suffered a setback in regional polls.

Ibarretxe, who had tried to turn Sunday’s poll into a plebiscite on his controversial plan, emerged weakened.

The big winners were the Socialists and a little-known party backed by radical nationalists unable to vote for Batasuna, banned as the political wing of guerrilla group ETA.

Ibarretxe’s moderate Basque nationalists remained the biggest party but cannot command a majority, opening the prospect of tough negotiations with others on forming a new regional government.

Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s Socialists said the lesson of the polls was that Basques — whose region has suffered decades of violence — wanted an end to confrontation.

The Socialists interpreted the results as a rejection of Ibarretxe’s plan and a sign Basque voters wanted dialogue between nationalist parties and those determined to keep the Basque country firmly anchored in Spain.

“The Ibarretxe plan has been defeated democratically. The Ibarretxe plan is now part of the past,” Socialist spokesman Jose Blanco told a news conference after a meeting of the party’s national executive on Monday.

Ibarretxe called the vote a month early after the Spanish parliament rejected his proposal for “free association” that would grant the Basque country more control over taxation, the courts and its foreign relations.

Ibarretxe’s Basque nationalists won 29 seats in the 75-member parliament, four less than in the 2001 elections, while the Socialists won 18 seats, a gain of five.

The most striking feature of the election was the strong showing by an obscure communist party which came from nowhere to take 12.5 percent of the vote and nine seats in parliament.

Perhaps it isn’t that much of a surprise, though. Batasuna, the backer of the terrorist ETA organization, endorsed the ultra-separatist party right before the elections. As far as I can tell, neither side really wants them, but for either side to form a majority they would need to cooperate with each other or broker with the communists. That’s what Ibarretxe may attempt to do.

As leader of the biggest party, Ibarretxe will talk to others in coming days about forming a coalition. He is likely to ally with current coalition partner, United Left, plus Aralar, which advocates Basque independence through non-violent means.

But that would only give him 33 seats, well short of the 38 required for a majority. The Socialists and PP, the biggest parties nationally, also command 33 seats, which would leave either group needing the communists for a majority.

Charles Powell, a history professor at San Pablo-CEU University, said Ibarretxe’s moderate Basque nationalists might rule by negotiating a “non-aggression” pact with the communists.

Less likely was an understanding between Socialists and Ibarretxe’s nationalists which might enable them to reform the current Basque autonomy statute. “I wouldn’t rule that out entirely,” Powell said.

So chances are, he will have to ally his party with one even more “nationalist” than his own. The Financial Times sees trouble.

“Zapatero remains hugely popular, but only because he has avoided all the tough issues, at home and abroad,” Mr Elorriaga says.

The toughest issue is how he will hold Spain together.

“Spaniards see problems looming in the Basque country and in Catalonia and they are confused by Zapatero’s stance,” says Victor P????rez D????az, a sociologist. “Does he want to appease nationalists because the Socialist party does not have a majority in parliament and needs their support to govern in Madrid? Where will he draw the line? There is a danger that the Basque question will become a huge black hole, consuming public energy to the detriment of all other problems.” The Basque elections, Mr P????rez D????az says, may be Mr Zapatero’s moment of truth.

If that is so, the 44-year-old premier, who was catapulted to office three days after the March 11 train bombings in Madrid, does not appear to be unduly troubled.

“I thought this business of governing would be complicated,” Mr Zapatero was overheard telling a friend, “but really, I’ve got it licked.”

Barcepundit comments much further on this article and the elections.