Earlier today a firefight broke out in Mecca between gunmen loyal to Osama bin Laden and Saudi security forces. This coincided with the third and final round of local elections in that country which have been reported with significant fanfare in the West. This is the latest sign that the on again, off again fight between the Saudis and their Islamist opponents is alive, and raises the issue of the stability of the kingdom. While the overthrow of the House of Saud is still viewed as very unlikely, a degree of instability far short of that would could still be a problem for the world.

I watched a report on this earlier on Al-Jazeera (for an account in English, see this Rueters report). It referred to the gunmen as musalahun – armed men, neither irhabiun, terrorists, a term Al-Jazeera applies to armed individuals killing innocent Muslims or Arabs, nor shuhada’, martyrs, the term it uses to describe the same people when they blow up an Israeli restuarant. This seems to indicate a sense of neutrality in this fight. The open hostility between the kingdom and Al-Jazeera is well known – no Saudi business is allowed to advertise on the station – and so this is not a surprise. Significantly, the report also noted that many Saudis view the local elections, as a means of protest against the West, with those supporting “Islamic reform” doing well. This is certainly not the way it is presented in the English media. At the same time, Al-Jazeera’s own anti-American slant should be taken into account here; they may have simply talked to Saudis who thought of the elections as an anti-West protest.

Watch and see if anything follows from this, whether it is the start of a new round of fighting or just an isolated incident. Perhaps more importantly, watch and see if this final round of local elections brings about a more stable, participatory regime, or if it moves to the fore a more militant and anti-Western surge. If Al-Jazeera’s report is correct, the latter is more likely to be the case.

Contributed by Kirk H. Sowell of Window on the Arab World, and More!