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MIKATI BENT ON THREE STAGE LEBANON ELECTION

Constitutionally, the Lebanese electoral law must be passed a month before the elections are to take place. Which means they have have three days left– April 29th. New and short-living Premier Mikati wants to hold the election over a period of three days.

Parliament on Tuesday opened a nationally televised debate of a policy statement by Premier Mikati’s newly formed government, which is seeking a vote of confidence on a basis that the elections would be held in three stages on May 26, 29 and 31.

The prime minister has made it plain that he was unshakably determined to hold the elections within the last week of May irrespective of which law the parliament would endorse for the first elections after Syria’s evacuation of Lebanon.

One of the draft electoral laws that would favor the pro-Syrians, however, would take quite a long time to implement.

The second option, which both Hizbullah and Amal have called for, is the designation of an electoral law of proportional representation in larger districts known as mohafazat or governorates. (For an example of how to calculate the appointment of seats in a proportional representation system, see box on left).

But such a system has never existed in Lebanon and would require a thorough count of the country’s population to accurately divide the electoral districts, particularly considering the sectarian requirements for the 128 seats in Parliament.

According to the 1989 Taif Accord, Parliament’s 128 seats must be split 50-50 between Christians and Muslims, with each half required to include representation of the country’s 18 recognized confessions.

Considering the monumental undertaking this system would entail, observers have said calls for its implementation can only serve to delay polls.

If the system is implemented in Lebanon, it is expected to be designed in a way that respects the sectarian division of parliamentary seats. Several suggestions have been put forward by electoral experts on how to implement the system, but none has yet been approved.

Proportional representation asks voters to elect one entire list of candidates as opposed to individual names. It could be applied on a national level drawing the whole country as a single electoral district or in large regions known as governorates.

The third option is a possible compromise between the two previous electoral systems that some observers have said Mikati may suggest. It considers the implementation of a mixed system, including both majority and proportional representation.

This system was first implemented in Germany and stipulates the election of half of Parliament based on a majority system and the other half based on proportional representation.

Voters would simultaneously elect a candidate that represents their electoral district and a list that represents their political affiliations.

But this system has also never been implemented in Lebanon and would require preparations to explain it to voters and candidates. Therefore, it could also be seen as a means to delay elections.

Another complication for Mikati’s new Cabinet is the fact there is no clear-cut preference for an electoral law among the loyalists as a group or among the opposition.

I’ve written about the possibilities concerning the electoral law at length so you may want to check that out. Keeping the districts as they are now, however, would best suit the opposition.

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