The Palestinian Authority held local elections yesterday, and the results, released earlier today, indicate a win for the secular Fatah but a clear gain for Hamas. This is an excerpt from the Reuters report, “Fatah prevails but Hamas gains in Palestinian polls“:

Unofficial results released on Friday showed Hamas making strong inroads in key urban centres in the West Bank and Gaza, an indicator it could do well in this summer’s parliamentary ballot, possibly complicating Abbas’s peace efforts.

Fatah won control of 52 of the 84 municipal councils being contested in the West Bank and Gaza in Thursday’s vote, while Hamas won 24, the Palestinian Election Committee said. Smaller factions took four councils, and four were undecided. Hamas disputed the results, saying it had captured councils in 34 towns and villages.

Mahmoud al-Zahar, a Hamas leader in Gaza, said many of the independent candidates who won council seats in the West Bank actually belonged to Hamas but chose not to run as members of the group for security reasons.

A team of European observers said that except for a few minor problems, the elections had been fair and democratic, meeting a condition set by international aid donors…

Fatah, founded by the late Yasser Arafat and long the dominant mainstream political faction, had seen its popularity slip amid allegations of corruption and mismanagement. Hamas, which boycotted previous polls, posed an electoral challenge to Fatah after gaining street credibility for its fight against Israel, its piety and charity work.

This will complicate matters, indeed. The report went on to note that turnout was high – about 80 percent in Gaza and somewhat lower in the West Bank. If Fatah does feel the need to coalition with Hamas in Gaza, as it has suggested in the past, this would put a quick end to whatever is left of the peace process.

The political front is, of course, only one front in the struggle for power among the Palestinians. There is also the armed front, and Hamas’ ongoing desire to launch terrorist attacks on Israel is raising tensions which have been building between the two factions. (For background, see my recent post A Hamas-Fatah Coalition in Gaza?, Mahmud Abbas’ Moment of Truth and Israel’s Agonizing Separation.)

A moment of truth did arrive a couple of days after my last post on this, as a Hamas operative attempted to fire mortar at Israel from the Gaza Strip. PA security officials arrested him, but then let him go under pressure from Hamas. Palestinian Security Chief Rashid Abu Shabak stated that the PA would not attempt to disarm Hamas, but would act to prevent the organization from attacking Israel from Gaza. (For full details, see this Jerusalem Post article, “PA won’t disarm ‘resistance’ groups”.)

For Israel, this is a nonstarter. If Hamas and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades (which is linked to Fatah) remain armed, then Israel cannot allow for the establishment of a Palestinian state without taking a risk of that state becoming a terrorist state, especially considering Hamas’ success in yesterday’s elections. I predict that a lot of hopes which are being raised right now are going to come crashing down whenever the breaking point comes, and that will be soon. Israel has said that it will not turn over any more West Bank towns without a Hamas disarmament, and that means that once the Gaza pullout is complete this summer, there will be no more Israeli concessions without action which the Palestinians have ruled out.

Contributed by Kirk H. Sowell of Window on the Arab World, and More!