The ritz and glamour of the V-E Day celebrations in Moscow are coming to a close, and nearly everyone, except my German grandmother, has been watching and opining on what it all means for U.S.-Russia relations. At one moment, you have Bush praising the Baltics and preaching freedom and democracy in Belarus. On the other, you have Putin criticizing American democracy, hailing the Soviet Union and even erecting statues of Stalin. You’d think the Cold War is about to get hot again!

Then you see the two watching an impressive military display, smiling and laughing together, and driving around in a cute little car. So is it a divorce, or are they going on a honeymoon?

World watching, it was the first time an American president has visited a Russian military parade on such a grand scale. But with Russia in the media’s crosshairs, it is likely that it will largely overlook to a large degree Bush’s pit stop: Georgia. Speaking of firsts, this is the first time that an American president has ever visited Georgia, a major foreign policy achievement for 2003 rose revolutionary Saakashvili.

It is interesting that Bush would choose to visit Latvia before the celebration and Georgia afterward. Both the Baltics and Georgia have gone cold as ice with Russia, both areas former Soviet republics. In Georgia’s case, Saakashvili has steered his country westward and, in a bid to join NATO, worked with his parliament to issue a non-binding declaration asking Russian military bases to pack up and move out. Domestic reforms have been slow and hard-earned, and due to high expectations, this has cost him a lot in the popularity polls — though he is still well-ahead of the old guard opposition. Due to this, he has been focusing his attention, and that of the local media, to international affairs with the promotion of democracy in the neighborhood. When Saakashvili was first elected, it took the U.S. government only a few weeks to invite him to America, so this visit by Bush will be very important for Georgia and a boost for Saakashvili.

Of course, the government is downplaying Bush’s visits as lacking symbolism and should not send a message to Russia.

Bush’s national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, told reporters today that Bush’s upcoming trip to Latvia, Russia, and Georgia is meant to mark the wartime alliance that defeated Nazi Germany. It will also, he said, stress the common values binding Europe together.

“The trip as a whole is an opportunity, taken together, to obviously celebrate the defeat of fascism and Nazism in Europe. It is also to acknowledge and celebrate the end of communism in Europe and the advent of what we’re beginning to see increasingly — a Europe whole and free where democracy and freedom are increasingly practiced by all the states,” Hadley said.

Hadley said during the trip Bush will deliver speeches stressing that democracy is more than elections. He said Bush will emphasize the importance of respect for minorities, rule of law, and inclusion of minorities in political systems.

The key to what he said lies in, “the advent of what we’re beginning to see increasingly — a Europe whole and free where democracy and freedom are increasingly practiced by all the states.” What Bush plans to speak about is spot on, and it no doubt puts pressure on Putin. This is because, in the focus of Europe, the only country not naturally moving toward democracy is Belarus, where Putin has vehemently spoken out against outside influence in the country’s politics. In Russia, going against a vassal state of the elected tsar is going against the tsar himself. Saying that this should send no message to Russia should signal that, indeed, this is a trip likely to stir.

Both the U.S. government and that of Georgia have been extremely vocal about Belarus, with parliament issuing a unanimous formal condemnation of Lukashenko’s human rights abuses. Saakashvili, at the GUUAM summit in Moldova, spoke out that Belarus will be the next to undergo a velvet revolution. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have both termed Lukashenko’s regime “the last dictatorship in Europe.”

Connecting the dots, a Belarussian opposition leader has just arrived in Tbilisi hoping to meet President Bush.

Leader of Belarus opposition Anatoly Lebedko, who chairs the United Civil Party, arrived in Tbilisi on May 9 on personal invitation of Vice-Speaker of the Georgian Parliament Mikheil Machavariani.

Reportedly, Lebedko wants to meet with U.S. President George W. Bush during the latter????????s visit to Georgia on May 10.

In a recent interview with the Rustavi 2 television Vice-Speaker of the Georgian Parliament Mikheil Machavariani confirmed that he personally invited Anatoly Lebedko to visit Tbilisi in an attempt to meet with George W. Bush.

As I already noted, Georgia’s parliament unanimously voted to condemn Belarus and help foster democracy there. That this opposition leader was invited by the Vice-Speaker means that the invitation was widely supported. Most likely, Lebedko will have the pull he needs and Bush’s favor for his cause that will get him a meeting. Bush visited Latvia over the objections of Moscow, so this straightforward style will likely last through the visit to Georgia. We know that Lukashenko will be outraged at this, but how Moscow reacts will be the tell-tale sign of whether Bush’s V-E Day visit was an olive branch or a twig.