An envoy from the United States met with King Gyanendra yesterday evening to press for the restoration of civil liberties. As you may recall, the king imposed a state of emergency on February 1 and dissolved the parliament, leading to the arrest and detainment of hundreds of journalists, students, and political opponents. Constitutionally, the state of emergency can only last for three months, so it was lifted on April 30. Despite this, however, the media remains curbed and only a few dozen, at most, have been released from jail.

The official sent for this visit was U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Christina Rocca. Upon her visiting, four leaders were released, but this is inconsequential and is widely seen as trying to distract the international community from the real problem. The king’s excuse for maintaining his absolute rule is due to the parliament’s ineffectiveness at combatting the Maoist insurgency.

This creates an especially interesting political situation in Nepal, given a huge attack by the Maoists as the envoy was visiting. On the one hand, while the U.S. never official suspended military aid (thought it hasn’t shipped any since February), they could see the attack as an imminent danger to Nepal and resume the aid. This is a very precarious decision to make, as the king could use it solely to combat the insurgency, or he could use it to continue his crackdown on civil society. Last year, U.S. military aid to Nepal was $42 million (CORRECTION: Only $2 million of this is military aid, the rest is hedged for development), but the envoy states that the king must reinstate civil liberties, even in the fight against the Maoists, or face the possibility of losing the money. Many human rights organizations are supporting this avenue.

Suspending aid, in fact, has been the reaction of many countries and international organizations. India and Britain both completely suspended aid, though in the face of these attacks, India has decided to allow some aid already en route to enter. The Asian Development Bank, Nepal’s international development partner, has warned the country that if it does not improve its human rights, then it risks losing aid in the future. The International Monetary Fund has also postponed the third installment of one of its own aid programs to Nepal. Linking the progress of human rights to ability to receive international aid is an important idea, and it is encouraging to see so man organizations using it as leverage again the king. Nepal is a heavily aid-dependant country, so the king may have to give eventually.

The complication with this arises in the existence of the Maoist insurgency, and what will happen if they are able to take over in light of a weakened central government. This creates the second possiblity, which is the response to the recent large attacks by the domestic political front. Given that the king’s excuse for destroying civil liberties was to combat the Maoist insurgency, he may himself be seen as just as ineffective, if not moreso, than the parliamentary government. Nepal’s seven largest political parties, in fact, have united not on the basis of their political beliefs, but on the basis that they should all have the freedom to compete for political influence — namely, against the king’s absolute rule. These parties represent 90% of the seats in the dissolved parliament, so it will be interesting to see how this, combined with everything else, factors in to progress in Nepal. The king originally stated in February that it would take him 100 days to create a road map to restore democracy. That deadline ends tomorrow. Let’s see what coughs up.