Egypt’s parliament has just passed a resolution which will set May 25 as the day the Egyptian population will vote to amend the constitution so as to provide for multi-candidate presidential elections. The resolution was endorsed by a huge majority of parliament, though this is because it was proposed by Mubarak and his party dominates. The government is on a diplomatic trip to Washington right now, and they are big time trying to convince American politicians that Egypt is on the way to democracy, even broadcasting the parliamentary debate over the measure on television. At this point, Egypt is very concerned about its international reputation, especially with the United States who they have maintained good relations with. They also have a rapidly growing economy, and the government does not want this to stop any time soon.

Mubarak may have actually realized that the move toward democracy is relatively inevitable, and this definitely opens up a hole of weakness in the regime. With the election law being passed, Bush is calling for international monitors to make sure the vote is not fraudulent. Egyptian officials have not outright refused it yet, instead declining to comment. This hesitence reveals further weakness, and based on the outlined premise, Mubarak’s government may as yet give in to this demand.

Sustained U.S. pressure for monitoring would pose a difficult choice for the Egyptian government.

Rejection would be seen as an admission that Egyptian elections do not meet international standards. Acceptance could expose electoral practices that human rights groups say include stuffing ballot boxes, arresting opposition organisers and using police to intimidate voters.

The reason I say this is because after the parliamentary passing of the referendum, Mubarak is facing ill faith toward and utter rejection of the government. The Kefaya movement and the more extreme Muslim Brotherhood are seeking a boycott of the reform amendment, as a multi-candidate election would be turbulently tilted toward Mubarak anyway. To note, the intention for electoral reform was also not announced until after voter registration closed. Many people disillusioned with the election process who would otherwise register cannot do so now. Most in the Egyptian public are still wary of the idea, but because of such blatantly devious tactics, the idea is growing in popularity, even among the disenchanted opposition parties. According to the previous article:

Analysts said on Wednesday the government’s position used to have broad support among the Egyptian population.

But public opposition to monitors could be eroding because of the perception that the ruling party will use any means necessary to hang on to power in the face of domestic demands for political change, they said.

Judges as well, who are the domestic supervisers of the elections, are even saying that they may boycott the elections.

Egyptian judges, long stripped of their independence by President Hosni Mubarak’s regime, decided Friday to boycott supervising an uncoming referendum and presidential election, the latest sign of discontent over the government’s limited democratic reforms.

While the judges met, hundreds of pro-government and opposition protesters faced off nearby. “Down, down with Hosni Mubarak!” chanted about 500 members of the opposition Kifaya movement gathered at the journalists union.

An equal number of demonstrators outside the union gates carried banners reading “Yes to Mubarak” and chanted, “Traitors, get out of here!” to the Kifaya members. Some threw stones at the union building.

A judges’ boycott would undermine the credibility of what the government has touted as a major democratic step: the opening of the September elections to multiple candidates for the first time after years of Mubarak running unopposed.
The call also highlights how reform demands – for years made only by isolated groups – have gathered steam. Though some judges have long complained they are not given enough independence, overt defiance would have been unthinkable in the past.

Judges have the role of supervising elections, checking the count and candidate lists and monitoring at polling stations. But critics say their presence is no protection since the Interior Ministry officials transport the ballot boxes afterwards. Past elections have been plagued with vote-rigging and intimidation at the polls.

Around 2,500 of Egypt’s 8,000 judges attended Friday’s gathering of the Judges’ Club General Assembly. When a vote was called on whether to call a boycott, nearly the entire audience stood.

It appears that pressure to submit to even greater reform is indeed gaining steam. No doubt, the ball has already begun rolling and there are several months until the presidential elections actually take place. So much can happen in such a short time. What will be interesting to watch, then, is how the U.S. will continue to exert pressure over Mubarak in the international sphere. He would not risk catastrophe now that he is under so much scrutiny, and he may even give into democratic demands as he begins to see how change in this direction is is directly linked to prominence in the international political and economic arena.