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THOUGHTS ON ETHIOPIA’S ELECTION

I hadn’t really discussed it because, as far as superficial information goes, the mainstream media and famed international election observers like Jimmeh Carter went ahead and gave the whole thing the green light. WILLisms has a great roundup of the media coverage during the past week, and yes, Ethiopia is one of the more progressive nations on the continent. Relative to everyone else, Ethiopia’s ruling party looks like a model for the rest of Africa. In fact, they were the opposition alliance that overtook the Marxist dictatorship back in the ’80s. Jimmy Carter had some good things to say.

Carter, who arrived here Thursday to observe the third federal and regional parliamentarians’ elections in Ethiopia, ascribed the massive turnout of voters to immense contributions of the mass media.

The Carter Center also appreciated the decision the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) made to extend the balloting hours because of a massive turnout of voters on the polling day.

According to the observers of the Carter Center, there were some problems in the balloting process like inability to monitor voters’ identification cards, beginning balloting process before counting out the voting papers, and allegedly allowing under-aged persons.

In fact, the Carter Center said, balloting was started a bit later than the scheduled period in some polling stations.

Despite the problems, Cater congratulated the Ethiopian government and its people on the successful completion of the national elections.

The former US president said the electorates and political parties should wait for the results of the national elections patiently until the results are announced officially.

“I’m hopeful that the political parties will accept the results of the elections,” Carter said, adding that “the political parties should restrain from releasing provocative statements.”

The mass media, indeed, was much more open to the opposition this time around, hosting debates and allowing air time for platforms. But as all things good with Jimmy Carter, they must come to an end. The European Union, who sent observers as well, noted that four opposition activists had been killed, while over 300 beaten over the course of election season. These are, apparently, minor problems to him. That article notes, as well, another major problem. Carter called for both sides to refrain from provocative statements. Too late:

Ethiopia’s ruling party claimed to have won just over half the seats in parliamentary elections, but opposition leaders said it was still too early to tell who would form the next government.

Minister of Information Bereket Simon, who is also spokesman for the ruling People’s Revolutionary Front, acknowledged opposition gains but insisted Tuesday his party would remain in control of the 547-seat parliament.

“We have the majority,” he told the Associated Press. “We can’t give exact figures but we have won more than 300 seats.”

The opposition is not all too happy about that, especially given that while some overhead results won’t even be released until Saturday, the official results are not announced until June 8. Behind-the-scenes vote rigging doesn’t stop just because Jimmy is there, and this could be the precursor, despite high opposition gains, to the ruling party having more seats than it should.

ADDIS ABABA: Ethiopia????????s biggest opposition coalition accused the ruling party of using ???????illegal??????? means to cling to power yesterday after it claimed election victory while votes were still being counted.

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi????????s Ethiopian People????????s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) said late on Monday it had won enough votes in Sunday????????s polls to form the next government, although results have not been officially tallied. ???????This act of the EPRDF has astounded CUD and the general public who are in possession of the full knowledge that the vote counting process in the country is still taking place, and as a result so far is hugely in favour of CUD,??????? said Berhanu Nega, vice-chairman of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD).

???????This is a clear sign that the ruling party wants to cling to power using all illegal means that will suppress the democratic will of the people,??????? he told a news conference. Berhanu also criticised a month-long ban on rallies imposed after Sunday????????s poll in Africa????????s top coffee grower.

This ban is another interesting effort out of the current government to stop protest over the election. To the locals, Jimmy’s endorsement of the elections as whole grain goodness is what allowed this ban to go into place, where it otherwise would have been condemned. In fact, Carter endorsed these bans as necessary (Hat tip: Buzz Brockway).

Carter, here at the head of a 50-strong team of election monitors, said his mission had not found any evidence of opposition claims of widespread fraud and that the few irregularities uncovered would not tarnish Sunday’s polls.
The ex-US leader said he had been satisfied by Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s personal explanation of his decision to ban public demonstrations in Addis Ababa for the next 30 days, a move questioned and criticized by many.
“His opinion was that this was a cautionary measure, temporary in nature, geographically limited to prevent any confrontation of a violent nature between winners and losers here in the capital city,” Carter told reporters.
Carter said he and his team’s co-leaders, former Botswanan president Ketumile Joni Masire and former Tanzanian prime minister Joseph Warioba, had agreed that the “very narrowly defined directive” was not repressive.
“We believe collectively that the decision of the prime minister was not excessive in preventing any possible arousal of animosity or violence among his own supporters or the opposition,” he said.

The ban only took effect in the capital, coincidentally, where the opposition is expected to sweep all of the seats. It seems strange to me that the government practically expects the rest of the country will be firmly within their grasp. So what????????s an opposition supposed to do? Claim victory of course, just like the ruling party.

Ethiopia????????s main opposition parties say they????????re on course to win the parliamentary elections ???????? contradicting the ruling party????????s claims of victory. The ruling party says it????????s won more than half the vote in last Sunday????????s polls.
But the opposition ???????? the Coalition for Unity and Democracy, CUD, and the United Ethiopian Democratic Front ???????? say that????????s not true. They say initial results show they????????ve taken more than 200 seats in about 250 constituencies where counting has been completed.
???????
Sahilu Baye is a member of the Central Committee for the Ethiopian Democratic Unity Party, one of the four parties that make up the opposition CUD. Mr. Sahilu says the opposition is doing well in rural areas, which the government says is its stronghold. He told English to Africa reporter William Eagle that the opposition????????s conclusions are based on the receipts agreed upon by officials and observers at individual polling stations.
Yesterday, a spokesman for the ruling EPRDF party told VOA that it also used polling station receipts ???????? but reached the opposite conclusion. The ruling party says, for example, that it has carried much of the rural vote – – which observers say make up a majority of the electorate. It also says it has carried three of the largest regions ???????? Amhara, Oromia, and Tigrinia.
Opposition spokesman Sahilu Baye says government authorities intimidate rural voters to support the ruling party. He also alleges fraud. The EPRDF spokesman accuses the opposition of trying to have it both ways: saying the elections were fraudulent, but supporting tallies that show anti-government forces winning, especially in towns and cities.

It seems to me that the election is really just a game for both sides, which is unfortunate. The outcome is going to be very interesting, and I am sure that the United States government is watching with very close interest given the recent massacres in Zimbabwe and Togo. For all the faults of this election, and there were many, it appears that there was no large, systematic attempt at fraud. The best way to measure, however, is not in relatives to the rest of the continent, but to a high absolute standard so as to mark the progress made during each season. Given the histories of the two parties, with luck on the people????????s side, the competition between the two could eventually turn into a race between who can be the most democratic. More to come, as the overhead results are released on Saturday.

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