They’re heading to the polls right now to vote in their country’s presidential election. Actually, that started a few hours ago, but I bet the nomads still have a ways to go. So far, it looks like the now center-left ex-Communist Party is going to do well in the polls. The Democratic parties alliance has splintered since ’96 and, despite large economic growth over the past year after a couple years of famine, are looking to lose out again on the presidency.

Mongolia is electing a new president, with a candidate of the ex-Communist Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party tipped to beat his three contenders.

Such an outcome could affect an uneasy power-sharing arrangement reached between the MPRP and their rivals, the Democrats, analysts say.

But Mongolian elections are known for their unpredictability.

The poll comes less than a year after last June’s bitterly disputed parliamentary elections.

Predictable indeed, especially when you have communists that now aren’t really communists. That just throws my world for a loop. One interesting sign of this unpredictability that I saw was in relation to how quickly candidates can make themselves prominent, not just in the course of months, but days.

ULAN BATOR ???????? A non-starter appears to have fought his way into contention in Mongolia’s presidential race days before the windswept Central Asian nation goes to the polls on Sunday.

Badarchiin Erdenebat, a former defence minister and charismatic businessman from the Motherland New Socialist Democratic Party, had been polling the lowest of the four presidential candidates before a strong showing in a nationally televised debate on Wednesday night.

‘Erdenebat was the best in the debates. He spoke like a president,’ Bayaraa, a professional driver in the Mongolian capital Ulan Bator, said on Thursday, echoing others in the television audience.

Pre-debate opinion polls had Nambariin Enkhbayar, a former prime minister from the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP), the clear front runner, followed by Mendsaikhanii Enkhsaikhan of the Democratic Party and straight-talking cashmere trader Bazarsadiin Jargalsaikhan of the small Republican Party.

But many people said Erdenebat was more convincing than his opponents in the television face-off.

‘Erdenebat’s ratings have to have gone up because of the debate… But it’s much more difficult to convince those who have not decided whether or not to go to the polls,’ Sumati, a political analyst for the independent Sant Maral Foundation, said.

The election result could be announced as early as Monday if one candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote. Otherwise, the top two vote-getters will compete in a run-off.

Up to one million people will make their way to voting stations across the vast grasslands on Sunday, relying on camels, ponies or four-wheel drives to take them to the ballot boxes.

And with no official polls planned before the vote, the outcome seems impossible to predict.

Erdenebat’s growing popularity is being fuelled by his focus on bringing economic growth to the majority of Mongolians.

That was the message on Thursday when he stumped at an open-air market where people were selling car parts and playing billiards.

‘My main message to people is that the state really needs to support the small people with their small businesses. If these people stand on their feet, we will come out of poverty.

‘But these people need to be supported by more favourable policies,’ he said, referring to cutting taxes and increasing access to micro-credit.

In this race, all of the candidates are promising economic growth that will benefit the poor. This, in a place where 1/3 of the country still lives in poverty despite 11% growth last year. This is a guy to watch as the results are announced, because if I’m reading the article right, then he could have totally turned the race. While the leading candidate from the ex-communist MPRP had been polling at over 50% prior to the debates, enough to win outright, he could very well now lose votes to this guy. A forced runoff would be held between the top two candidates in the case that the MPRP candidate doesn’t garner the necessary amount. Nostalgia for the stable days of communism are abundant in a country just recovering from the post-Soviet collapse, and this will have an effect on how the voter’s exercise their right.

The race looks, however, like it will be a lot more clean than last year’s disputed parliamentary elections. Even the communists don’t want to deal with allegations of corruption coming from so many directions. The fact that they were able to hold a fair and representative national debate in which a minor candidate could garner so much support attests to that. While I think relatively all elections in that area of the world still have plenty of work to do in terms of transparency, Mongolia is definitely a leader in the region with its progress.

UPDATE: Ex-communist wins.