The regime is going to be starving for legitimacy if this is true, and by all accounts it looks highly probable.

A nationwide survey conducted by an Iranian opposition group showed widespread voter apathy in Iran’s upcoming June 17 presidential elections.

The People??????????s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) said in a press release that a survey of 1,730 adults eligible to vote showed that 92 percent of voters intend to boycott the elections. The survey was based on interviews conducted between May 27 and May 30, 2005. READ MORE

While the PMOI as an opposition group has clear interests in promoting a boycott of the polls, independent observers also believe that this year??????????s presidential election is lacklusterre event that has failed so far to generate any interest among Iranians.

??????????It??????????s hardly a choice to make people motivated,?????????? said Mohamed Rezaie, a Paris-based political scientist. ??????????On the ballot, you have two mullahs, four Revolutionary Guards generals, and two leftovers from Khatami??????????s cabinet who have no credibility. Add to this the rising discontent, and you see why the boycott appeal has never been as strong as it is today.??????????

Of the eight percent who said that they would be taking part in the elections, 4.7 percent said that they would be voting for ex-President Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and 3.0 percent said they favoured hard-line candidate Ali Larijani. Only one person said that he planned to vote for ex-Majlis speaker Mehdi Karroubi.

Eleven of those surveyed said that they planned to throw blank ballots in the boxes. Blank votes made up a significant percentage of the ballots in the last election, as many of the voters simply go to the polling stations to have their ID cards stamped. Anyone whose ID card is not stamped could face a series of consequences, such as being refused public sector jobs.

A total of 1,730 people from a variety of backgrounds and in different sectors of society were surveyed, according to the PMOI statement.

The day is coming up very soon — June 17. I guess we’ll find out then, though, there aren’t enough words to describe the systematic fraud that will occur. They will probably elevate the turnout, because when all of the candidates are guaranteed supporters of the regime, it is the turnout that counts. Without even a mediocre turnout, the regime will have absolutely zero official legitimacy in the face of the elections. That’s bad for them given that they already have little to no legitimacy already.

It will be interesting to see how the Iranian people react to the elections and the results. As we have seen since the fall of the Soviet Union, and especially recently with regards to the many velvet revolutions, elections are historic benchmarks of public sentiment that can spill over. One of the problems for totalitarian governments is that they must keep people separate from one another, disconnected, so as to not come together against the government. A low turnout would solidify the private sentiments of the people into a public unifier. Imagine being scared of voicing your opinion, only to find out that 92% of the rest of the country agrees with you. That’s something powerful, and it could lead to the unspoken wish that we all hold; that the mullahs are going down on June 17.