Like Rwanda 1994, Bolivia grows worse, and worse. It’s collapsing as a nation. No one is at the helm of leadership, and no consensus on any leadership is on the horizon. The angry indigenous groups seem to be energized by growing strife and are rising in numbers. There seems to be an equally determined group on the other side in Santa Cruz who can find no common ground with their countrymen. President Mesa has warned that the country is sliding into civil war and has appealed to his Santa Cruz vice president to submit to elections. The vice president has no intention of doing this, and on the other side, neither does Evo Morales. Violence is in many regions and occupations and land confiscations underline the breakdown of rule of law. The country is shutting down – flights are cancelled, oil production is stopping and the usually steel-nerved local financial markets are swooning. This democracy is rapidly dying.

NEWS ROUNDUP:

XINHUA reports that Bolivian hospitals in La Paz are rapidly running out of food, gas, oxygen and medical supplies due to the Evo Morales blockades, with just three days’ supplies left. Protestors blockading the city will allow nothing to get in. The International Red Cross is pleading with blockaders for a ‘humanitarian truce.’

ASSOCIATED PRESS reports that Congress has flown to the city of Sucre, Bolivia’s judicial capital, to choose a new leader now that President Carlos Mesa has asked to resign. Hormando Vaca Diez, the president of Congress is next in line for succession but because he is from Santa Cruz and is a landowner, he is considered worse than even President Mesa by roadblocking protestors led by Evo Morales. Protestors, who have just toppled Mesa, are chanting that they are ready for ‘war’ if Vaca Diez takes power. Morales and crew are calling for new elections.

ZEE NEWS reports that President Mesa’s pleading to avoid civil war are not quelling any heated feelings. Indian groups are blockading the city of Sucre and one leader quoted explicitly cited the growing race-war aspect of this conflict.

WASHINGTON TIMES reports that President Mesa is calling for elections, but it doesn’t look as though he will have any takers. Reporter Carmen Gentile (who’s written some of the worst pro-Chavez columns ever, sadistically abusive of Venezuela’s democratic opposition, arrogantly dismissive of its warnings that have since proven utterly true, and a Big Believer in Jimmy Carter, but who has written nothing terrible lately – and his piece here on Bolivia is good) says the protests do not compare with the 2003 protests that threw out President Goni Sanchez de Lozada in intensity. He also notes that the passage of the gas law a few weeks ago lit the fuse to the current crisis, which he accurately calls ‘self destruction.’

LOS ANGELES TIMES reports that Congressional President Hormando Vaca Diez may be sworn in as early as today and expects a bloodbath. Evo Morales and crew call him an ‘eastern oligarch.’ They also intend to march on Sucre to prevent his taking power. In Potosi province, Indian leaders say they will expropriate landholdings.

XINHUA reports that Repsol YPF has shut down its energy operations after indigenous protest groups occupied several of its facilities near Santa Cruz. BP has also had its operations blockaded.

XINHUA reports that Congress may not meet at all due to roadblocks. I am not sure of the timing of the story and if it applies to Sucre.

REUTERS reports that La Paz is a pitched battlefield of tear gas and riot police and embassies are rapidly evacuating their personnel.

BLOOMBERG reports that Brazil is likely to lose natural gas supplies. Its stock market already is taking a beating on this as well as a domestic scandal. World gas supplies are tight and a Brazilian energy official says Brazil imports 24 million cubic meters of gas a day from Bolivia. Brazil’s government has underlined the importance of non-intervention in the internal affairs of Bolivia at the OAS meeting so they will probably have to get used to living without the gas.

BLOOMBERG reports that Repsol YPF energy company, which has $1.2 billion investments in Bolivia, is continuing to tumble. The market is pricing in nationalization.

EFE reports that Spain is preparing to evacuate its nationals from the country.

EFE reports that President Mesa has asked the UN, Argentina and Brazil to send in observers. He wrote a pleading letter to the leaders, begging them to show that the world has not abandoned Bolivia and that this is the nation’s critical hour. I do not understand why he is not asking for troops. The article also notes that Argentina has no natural gas alternative if Bolivia’s gas is shut off, while Brazil’s Petrobras operates the Santos gas field which amounts to 14% of Bolivia’s natural gas reserves.

THE SCOTSMAN reports that Venezuela denies it had anything to do with this nightmare in Bolivia. The U.S. has accused the government of Hugo Chavez of having “a high profile” in the conflict.

IPS reports that a UN official has said the conflict is entirely the fault of oligarchs. Right as he may be, he does not sound like he has ever heard of the industrious pro-globalization people of Santa Cruz who have an equally valid point of view about wanting to be part of the world economy. His taking of sides as a UN rep is not going to do much for peacemaking here.

AMERICAN SPECTATOR has a very good detailed firsthand account of the dynamics of protest in Bolivia. I’ve seen this writer’s work before and was impressed.

SLATE reports that Bolivia is a hot topic in the blogosphere. They are right. Thanks, Slate!

BLOGOSPHERE ROUNDUP:

Jim at GATEWAYPUNDIT has a superb roundup of events in case you are just catching up. He also has perfectly chosen photographs that truly make the points about what is really happening in Bolivia.

Miguel at MABB reports that the two main congressional parties are coming together in accord about accepting Hormando Vaca Diez as next president. Evo Morales, however, will not accept this. Meanwhile, La Paz is a battlefield of protests and strife and the uncollected garbage is starting to pile up.

Miguel at MABB in a really good post, updates with the Congress meeting in Sucre as the entire nation waits in agonizing nervousness. They must choose the successor, probably from among four men. The real difference now is that they are not only working as democracies must do between different parties but now with self-appointed, unelected social movements, like Evo Morales’ MAS complicating the political effort. No matter who they choose, new elections will have to be called in six months. Miguel believes that could mean Evo Morales in the end takes the presidency. He has a table of the different players worth looking at. He says the confrontations are spreading through the country and the hungry citizens are beginning to fight back against Morales’ roadblockers. The situation is growing desperate

Miguel at CIAO! has a magnificent post explaining out the issue of succession. Vaca Diez clearly wants to be president, and so does the guy below him. Neither are acceptable to Evo Morales. He wonders if the Senate could just elect a new president and get around this. He explains other technicalities in the constitution that also throw hammers in the gears, and says that in the end, it comes down to a question of ballots or dynamite. Be sure to read this, it’s highly informed and very well written.

Miguel at CIAO! has another superb post, describing the lunacy of the Morales movement, which knew that if it toppled President Mesa, it would have to deal with Cruceno Vaca Diez. It just didn’t seem to make that connection. That’s not all. He also writes of miners who had their dynamite and machine gun ammunition confiscated by police who are now upset that their property rights are being violated. Amazing post, full of ironies!

Eduardo at BARRIO FLORES recounts the dilemma over whether Vaca Diez should resign or not due to the opposition of Evo Morales. He adds:

This author also thinks that Evo Morales should resign as the head of MAS, to show generosity to those that cannot stand him.

Touche!

Eduardo at BARRIO FLORES also has a great transcript item on the State Department’s flopping around on the issue.