Tony predicted an Aoun loss, so obviously that was going to be the outcome. Er, and it was! Saad Hariri’s alliance swept all 28 seats, cementing him in parliament with a 72 seat majority in parliament and shutting out the possibility of an Aoun 1/3 veto.

Beirut, Lebanon – The anti- Syrian Opposition dealt a commanding blow to Michel Aoun’s return to the Lebanon political scene. In a clean sweep of the 28 contested seats for North Lebanon, the Opposition amassed over 56% of the total seats in the electionin what is being hailed a landslide victory.

The official results have yet to be announced, and are expected at a press conference held by Interior Minister Hassan Sabaa at 8pm Beirut Time on Monday, June 20.

Approximately 63 candidates competed on Sunday for the 28 seats contested, in the final round of the four week long election.

“The almost final results show that the people has had its say. (The people) said that it wants change and that’s what we call for,” Hariri said on Monday.

The strong alliance between Hariri’s Tayyar Al Mustaqbal, Jumblatt’s Progessive Socialist Party, Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces and Qornet Shahwan is expected to align with Amal and Hizbullah for an overwhelming majority of 97 votes in the new parliament. Such an alliance would yield over 75% of the votes in parliament, well over the two-thirds majority needed for electing changes.

Voting stops, slander continues

At a time when national unity is desperately needed, Jumblatt unfortunately lacked humility and grace in victory. “We have harnessed Aoun’s Tsunami-like phenomenon and cut the General down to size. We have rid Lebanon of a big lie called Aoun,” said Jumblatt. He referred to pro-Syrian Suleiman Franjieh as “the silly boy.”

The Druze chieftain cautioned Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir that “Aoun’s radicalism means a dead-end” for Lebanon, slating the General “part of a bad past, a failure as a military commander and as a politician.”

Aoun accused Hariri of buying votes and playing on sectarian differences to secure victory in northern Lebanon, ruling out any chance of teaming up with him in parliament.

“We will be in opposition (to the opposition). We can’t be with a majority that reached (parliament) through corruption,” Aoun said.

“There is a confidence crisis between us. They don’t trust me and I don’t trust them,” Aoun continued. “What happened is that the Anjar (Syrian) whip has been replaced by the Hariri money.”

Luckily, despite the Hariri-Jumblatt alliance with pro-Syria Amal and Hizb’allah, the most flagrant pro-Syrians running on each side of the opposition battles with each other seem to have been beaten. This means that, if the current electoral alliance holds up, their agenda will proceed without any obstruction. I don’t think that will be completely the case.

The first and easiest of this agenda will be to free Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces and whose wife, Sitrada, is now a parliament member aligned with Hariri.

Parliament must choose a speaker, who must be a Shiite. Nabih Berri, who has been the speaker for practically eternity, is slated to win this due to his alliance with Hizb’allah and the Hariri factions. In this way, especially, there is still an old face on the new parliament.

Parliament will also have to pick a prime minister, who must be a Sunni according to law. Saad Hariri has been widely tipped for the spot, but Jumblatt warned him against attaining the position while President Lahoud is still in power. This is mostly due to Saad’s political inexperience and the inevitable clashes that would occur. For now, it seems that current PM Mikati, who replaced Karami, will serve as he has done so pretty well since taking the reins.

Speaking of Lahoud, it is inconclusive on his fate, and it seems as if the pro-Syrian forces are mobilizing to delay his ouster. It seems that Hariri and Jumblatt will have to compromise on this and work a lot longer on the issue in parliament. This means that he could be ousted, have his extended term shortened, or simply be left to serve out the rest of his term.

A new electoral law will now need to be drafted, based on smaller districts called qazas instead of the much larger five districts. This is meant to make the elections much more representative of the population in Lebanon, where in places like the South the Christian minority must elect their Christian leaders as chosen by the generally dominant Shiite forces. This would make it easier for Christians to elect Christians and Shiites to elect Shiites. Same goes for the other areas of Lebanon. It also has to be remembered that Hizb’allah and Amal do not represent all Shiites, just as Aoun does not represent all Christians. The lines will be drawn based on what is most beneficial to all parties in parliament.

Perhaps the biggest problem that the new parliament will have to deal with soon is the issue of Hizb’allah’s weapons. I honestly don’t think that the solid face of the current alliances will hold, so it is impossible to predict how or when it will happen if at all. At best, it will; at worst, it won’t.

Lastly, they will have to deal with economic reforms given a $30 billion debt, government corruption, and weeding out the last of Syria’s influence on the country. I am confident that they can handle this fairly well, as there isn’t too much interest holding in parliament to obstruct this.