When discussing the move towards democracy in Eastern Europe, I always try to remind of the revitalized GUAM alliance, which is meant to secure economic independence toward Russia and move toward western values. The A in GUAM stands for Azerbaijan, which is generally more repressive than the others: Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova. After the opening of a major pipeline, in which many western leaders were present to criticize the government, the government began to allow protests. Well, an MP recently came out and suggested that the country may slide into civil war, recalling the fall presidential elections in 2003 when riots broke out. But instead of cracking down like most authoritarian governments have been known to do in the past, he thinks that the country should slowly open up.

Azerbaijan is sliding into a civil war on the eve of the parliamentary election, Civil Solidarity Party chairman, MP Fazayil Ibrahimli has said.

Speaking at a parliamentary session on Tuesday, he said that this threat has existed since the country gained independence.

“Instead of coming out against the opposition’s protest actions, the authorities should eliminate the reasons compelling people to take to the streets.”

Ibrahimli continued that ‘a corrupt official putting his hand in the state’s pocket is as dangerous as raising the English flag at an opposition rally’.

Speaker Murtuz Alasgarov called on the opposition to take steps in compliance with Azerbaijan’s position. “In all rallies, the Azerbaijani flag, not the British flag, should waive”, he said.

Alasgarov added that opposition rallies will be allowed, ‘as this is particularly important on the eve of the elections’.

Slowly, but surely. This is the general position that the GUAM alliance is taking in opening up to the west both economically and ideologically. I think this is good. It will help cement liberalism into civil society itself, something which is harder to reverse than when revolutionary shock treatment is applied. This way takes a bit more time, but without the drastic after-effects. Indeed, it seems that people inside the government have taken notice to the need for western cooperation, and have utterly rejected Russia.

Aliyev who attended the international economic forum in Russia said that economic development in Azerbaijan is not behind that of Russia at all. Although Russia is a larger country, Azerbaijan’s economy has developed more properly and dynamically, he said.

“Azerbaijan’s economy should integrate into Europe and America in particular. Our priority is integration into the West. We won’t be able to learn anything serious from Russia.”

The minister stressed that Azerbaijan has left neighboring countries far behind for the level of economic development and should integrate into developed countries. “As for Russia, it may be a large market for Azerbaijani products,” he said.

That’s both a burn and a sign. The third degree went to Russia, of course, and the sign is that international pressure and diplomatic leverage is working on Azerbaijan’s government. I think it’s safe to predict that, with future hazards accounted for, the progress of liberal democracy in Azerbaijan and the other countries of GUAM is pointing steadily forward. Even more than forward, it’s pointing west.