Yesterday, I posted “More squawking of a Russia-Belarus union,” though significantly most of that squawking comes from Belarus’ side. Here’s a piece in RFE/RL that adds further to yesterday’s post.

KREMLIN ADVISERS SCOLD BELARUS FOR HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD…
In an open letter to Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka published on 23 June at sovetpanfilova.ru, the Council for Promoting Civil Society and Human Rights (SSRIGOPCh) under Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed its concern about “the unfavorable situation with civic rights and freedoms” in Belarus. The council, which is an advisory body whose head is appointed by Putin, said that Belarus has virtually no independent “sociopolitical media,” nongovernmental and human rights organizations are being gradually liquidated by the administration, and electoral legislation does not ensure ” legitimate results of the expression of the people’s will.” The council also pointed to “overtly unfriendly steps” that are being taken by the Belarusian government against Russia, including squeezing Russian electronic media from Belarus’s information sphere and censuring their programs, confiscating Russian commodities at Belarusian border checkpoints, and infringing on the rights of Russians who are in conflict with the Belarusian legal system. “The council is very influential but it does not reflect the state policy ÄstanceÅ,” SSRIGOPCh member Sergei Markov told RFE/RL’s Belarus Service. JM

…AS EUROPEAN LAWMAKER PREDICTS END OF RUSSIAN SUPPORT FOR BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT
Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) deputy Christos Pourgourides said on 23 June that the Russian government is “bound to abandon Alyaksandr Lukashenka pretty soon,” Belapan reported. He added that Lukashenka will “have no legs to stand on” without Russia’s support. The previous day, the PACE subcommittee on Belarus adopted a resolution urging Russia to “make any political or financial assistance to the government of Belarus conditional on respect for the human rights and civil liberties of the people of Belarus.” It also approved a draft memorandum criticizing the Belarusian authorities over the ongoing crackdown on political opponents and independent media outlets and calling for specific steps to unseat the Lukashenka regime. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry said in response that PACE does not have an impartial view of the situation in Belarus and lacks any tools to influence it.

The PACE resolution also makes many jabs at unfulfilled obligations on the Russian side, something they aren’t too happy about. But right now Putin is in a position where he must decide between a degenerate vassal state and a friendly, prosperous democratic Belarus. His main concern would be that the latter would turn toward Europe and shun Russia. That’s why, at the end of the first article, despite the resolution of deterioting human rights, Sergei Markov notes that it does not reflect the state policy.

To make a case study, however, this only happened in Ukraine due to enormous help by the Russian government in support of Yanukovich. Yet, in eastern Ukraine, there is still large support for Russia due to ethnic and economic ties. A liberal Belarus would have the benefits of a free society and still retain Russia as an important partner in development. At this point, it’s really Putin’s choice to make, as Russia is the only country in the area still supporting Lukashenko’s dictatorship.

I feel like I’m just giving advice, though, to an ear that won’t hear it. As anyone can imagine, that’s just not how Russia does things, even after seeing how the policy of retaining post-Soviet vassal states has failed. Putin is actually trying to actively re-energize the CIS in the face of a re-vitalized GUAM alliance. It just so happens that the former is made up of the lingering dictatorships of Central Asia while the latter are those closer to Europe and are looking to move toward more democratic societies. With regards to these alliances, the main problem for Russia strategically is that Belarus is located in the midst of the GUAM, EU, and potential EU countries. When Lukashenko’s dictatorship collapses in on itself, whenever that may be, most of the political leadership is going to be completely western leaning unless Putin moves now to assure his place alongside those who want to move Belarus forward.