It is going on fully four months since March’s Tulip Revolution that put Kyrgyzstan on the map for much of the west. Today, the country votes in its first presidential election since the parliamentary election revolt that led to the ousting of President Akayev. Acting-president Bakiev is seen as the frontrunner by a wide margin. Felix Kulov, who handled security in the country immedialtey after the revolution, was set to run against him but decided instead to run together with Bakiev. Should Bakiev win, he will appoint Kulov to the position of prime minister.

I think it’s a basically foregone conclusion that the Bakiev-Kulov ticket will win fairly easily. I say this due to their current and past political prestiage which is so high that most of the original 20 contenders decided to withdraw from the race upon the announcement of the alliance. Bakiev is from the ÄevenÅ poorer south, while Kulov is from the north. The split between these two regions has worried many observers watching for civil war, so the alliance brings about a mutual trust and stability to both sides of the country. In this way, it is good given that people have been very worried about stability of late. I’d say that pressure will be mostly off soon regarding that issue.

So this really only leaves two questions: Will the election be free and fair? What is Bakiev and Kulov’s plan for the future of the country?

While the revolution-causing parliamentary elections this spring were highly dubious, I believe that won’t be the case this time. Kyrgyzstan has always been the more open of the Central Asian societies. International organizations, NGOs, media, and the government seem to be really making the effort to secure the authenticity of this presidential election. Over 900 regular and internationa observers will be present, and over 250 foreign reporters have been accredited to roam the country. The country is also marking those who have already voted with invisible ink and have instituted transparent ballot boxes to prevent stuffing.

Constitutionally, the election results are nullified if less than 50% vote. Given that the Bakiev-Kulov ticket is expected to win, turnout may be lower than normal, but RIA Novosti says that by 4:00pm, over 52% voted, making the election valid.

BISHKEK, July 10 (RIA Novosti, Yulia Orlova, Natalia Belova) – The presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan have been recognized valid. As of 16:00 p.m. local time (14:00 p.m. Moscow time), over 52% of Kyrgyz electors cast their votes at the elections, the country’s central electoral committee said.

Under the Kyrgyz electoral law, elections are declared valid, if 50% of electors participate in them.

The elections are taking place in a calm atmosphere. Although the elections were announced just three months ago, they have been well prepared. Some large polling stations in the capital have mother and child rooms. Electors can also visit buffets at the entrance of polling stations.

The capital of Kyrgyzstan is calm and uncrowded. In addition to Bishkek residents, journalists can be seen in the streets.

Besides all of the new measures being implemented, I believe that Bakiev himself has a high stake in assuring that the election is transparent. Since he’ll most likely win, a sound and healthy election will give him a stronger mandate than a result that is shaky and regarded as false by the people. It would also set an historic example for the rest of the region.

Secondly, it is important to know how Bakiev will rule once he has become president. On that point, most people really don’t know because he hasn’t set forward a solid platform. This suggests to me that he’ll handle and manage the country pragmatically as is needed through the change it is undergoing. Pairing up with Kulov also suggests strongly that security and stability in the country — that is, suppressing any possible emerging counter-revolution — will be vital to steady reform.

It is important to understand, however, that the Tulip Revolution was born more out of government corruption in the elections and disdain for the unchanging economic situation than a direct desire for what we consider democracy. It can be expected that Bakiev will be trying to attract international investment from all quarters, which includes Russia, China, and the United States among others. However, keep in mind that economic reform leads directly to the establishment and enforcement of better legal rights, which in turn leads closer and closer to what we call democratic governance. For example, Bakiev is already in the process of privatizing all state media, and there is a committee to debate changes to the constitution. One of the more popular reforms thusfar is to strengthen the parliament against the executive and make the judiciary more independent, a great step forward.

If someone said to me today, “Kyrgyzstan is not a democracy,” all I could say back is, “Duh.” But maybe in twenty years I will be able to look back and say, “They did good.” Because the development of democracy in Kyrgyzstan is going to be a long one, just as it is in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and elsewhere in the world. The OSCE will release its full and official report tomorrow, but so far everything is looking very good and very clean.

UPDATE: Nathan has a roundup, and preliminary reports show that Bakiev has up to 80% of the vote — which isn’t all that surprising. He has pictures of dancing girls too.