Reality Check Time on the Israeli/Palestinian Front – Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, now scheduled for next month, is leading the Israeli-Palestinian peace process – if such a thing exists – toward disaster. Ironically, the withdrawal, known in Israel as the “Disengagement Plan,” has wide support everywhere in the world outside Gaza itself – from most Israelis, from other Arab governments, especially Egypt, which is helping in the implementation, from the European Union, the United Nations and from the United States. I originally supported it myself, but it has become clear to me that this will lead to a great deal more violence, greatly harming both Israel and the Palestinians.

The leadership of neither side is really showing much long-term good faith. On the Palestinian side, just last week Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmud Abbas offered Hamas a share of power, which Hamas rejected, but which would have brought a hardcore terrorist organization into the power structure of the PA. On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s continued support for settlements in the West Bank suggests to Palestinians that even if they get Gaza, they will not get a viable independent state by working with Israel.

The Palestinian Authority has rejected the Gaza withdrawal plan from the beginning, and has not shown itself at all eager to take over right now. This was reinforced in my mind watching an interview on IBA News with two Palestinian spokesmen who made the point that neither Palestinian authorities nor the Palestinian people wanted Israel to leave under these conditions. One, a leader of a Palestinian human rights group, said that the people fear that they will be cut off from their jobs, and a collapse in living conditions. He went on to say that the disengagement would lead to a third intifada, but this one against the Palestinian Authority, not Israel.

The fear of the PA seems to be two-fold: first, internecine violence within the Palestinian territories is getting out of control, and once Israel leaves, it will likely get worse. Second, while Fatah and the PLO are riven by infighting, Hamas is united and organized and set to be in a position to demand equal power with the PLO for the first time. Regarding the issue of Hamas’s strength, see my post, PA Postpones Legislative Elections, Fearing Hamas Win. As to the former issue, this is an excerpt from a Reuters’ report which illustrates the depth of intra-Palestinian violence, “Veteran Palestinian Lawmaker Quits over Chaos“:

Veteran Palestinian lawmaker Marwan Kanafani, a one-time adviser to Yasser Arafat and champion of internal reform, resigned on Sunday to protest against growing insecurity and political malaise.

Kanafani was the first parliamentarian to quit over an internal crisis that blew up before Arafat’s death last year and has persisted since President Mahmoud Abbas was elected in January on a platform of change.

“I hope this will attract the attention of the parliament, the government and the political factions to stop the internal deterioration and maintain the security of the homeland and the citizens,” Kanafani said in Gaza as he announced his decision…

Palestinian leaders have faced growing demands for change from people tired of chaotic outbursts by gunmen, increasing crime, high level corruption and inefficiency after a revolt since 2000 that brought statehood no closer…

Kanafani said he was unhappy at a decision to indefinitely delay legislative elections that had been scheduled for July. Hamas militants accuse Fatah of putting off the vote in fear the Islamic group would make a strong showing. The last parliamentary election was in 1996…

Ironically, the Israeli military is preparing for chaos, even as it prepares to use force against Jewish settlers in Gaza in order to get them out. The IDF’s plans include both a plan for limited reentry to prevent attacks on Israel by terrorists, and another plan for the complete reoccupation of the Gaza Strip in case chaos breaks loose. For more details, see this Jerusalem Post report, “IDF Formulating Gaza Re-Entry Option.”

I do not necessarily predict a full-scale Palestinian civil war. Instead, this is what I predict will happen if the disengagement plan goes through: First, the anarchy and violence will increase. At the same time, Hamas and others will continue attacks on Israel. Second, this will prompt an Israeli demand that the PA crackdown on Hamas, resulting in a threat by Hamas of civil war, from which the PA will back down. Some sort of truce will be reached, under which Hamas will have more power than Fatah was willing to offer last week. Third, this might bring a lull, but the violence against both Israel and the PA will cause Israel to reoccupy the Gaza Strip. This will likely leave Hamas even stronger, and a great expenditure of blood and finance will have accomplished nothing.

As for the other side, Israel is tearing itself apart over this issue, with extremist settlers threatening violence and some warning of a civil war over the issue. Yet opposition to the disengagement plan is not limited to extremists – some who are willing to give up Gaza provided the Palestinians can make security guarantees are opposing this move precisely because there are no guarantees.

The separation wall which Israel is building along the West Bank is also a major issue, especially with the decision yesterday to build the wall around Jerusalem such that it might cut off 55,000 Palestinian residents from their jobs. Israel has the right to build the wall to protect itself – the wall is one reason for the drop in suicide bombers over the past two years – but it has built it in places where it sometimes cuts Palestinian villages in two, and takes in West Bank territory unnecessarily. The wall will have to be modified.

Today the Israeli government announced that it was requesting $2.2 billion in aid from the U.S. for the disengagement. The U.S. should reject this request (which it appears that the Bush administration is doing), and should reverse it’s position entirely on this issue. Instead, we need a new proposal, something closer to the original roadmap plan.

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A NEW PROPOSAL
This is what I propose instead:
(1) Israel should
(a) go ahead with the evacuation of Jewish settlers in the Gaza Strip, but
(b) should maintain its military presence for now. This will show Israel’s good faith while maintaining some leverage.

(2) The Palestinian Authority should be given Gaza and key populations centers of the West Bank
(a) just as soon as Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad are disarmed in these areas. If it takes 2-3 years, if it means a war with Hamas, so be it. Hamas’ goals are incompatible with the establishment of a Palestinian state and peace between the two sides.
(b) The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the military wing of Fatah, should be integrated into a legal PA security force and properly trained as such. To the extent that they refuse, they should be treated like Hamas.

(3) The PA should be required to
(a) have elections leading to a genuine democracy to ensure that the Palestinian people are engaged in the settlement rather than simply forced into what best serves the interests of their leaders (the Arafat way), and
(b) maintain financial transparency.
Western nations should give the PA no more aid until this is done – the aid package announced at the G8 meeting should be annuled.

(4) Step (1) should be repeated in the West Bank as quickly as the PA can show that it can administer the territories acquired in step (2) in a peaceable manner consistent with the democracy requirements of (3).

(5) Israel should modify the location of its security wall so that step (4) can be carried out. This will also, of course, mean uprooting a lot of West Bank settlers.

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This would leave the issue of Jerusalem (I’m also assuming that the Palestinians have given up on the right of the refugees to return to Israel proper by this point). The two sides – the publics, not just the leaders – seem too far apart for now. While Israel has the obligation to accommodate Palestinians – and other Muslims – as to access and control over their holy sites, Muslims should recognize that it is not reasonable for them to expect sovereign control over all sites they consider sacred, since no other religion is allowed to make such a claim. Christians make no such claim, neither do Buddists or Hindus – otherwise, for example, Thais and Vietnamese would be going to Afghanistan to wage war against Muslims. And Jews will likewise have to give up the Biblical lands of Judea and Sumeria – i.e. the West Bank – including Hebron, site of the Tomb of the Patriarchs.

I have no great confidence that my plan will work, since at various steps it requires by both sides a combination of firmess against terror and compromise with the mainstream of the other side which is rarely seen. What I am confident about is that the current path leads to a big crash. I would be shocked if it worked. Palestinians will have peace and freedom only when they have a leader who is willing to face down Arab terrorists, especially Hamas, and at the same time submit his authority to democratic control. While like many I was hopeful about Abbas, it seems quite clear that it is not up to either task. Israelis will have to have to elect a leader who, unlike Ariel Sharon, is prepared to give up the West Bank settlements, and who, unlike Shimon Peres, is able to see that negotiating with authoritarian, corrupt and terrorist-linked Palestinian leaders will never lead to peace.

As for Western nations, we should probably just not get our hopes up too fast.

Contributed by Kirk H. Sowell of Window on the Arab World, and More!