Eurasianet reports on a leaked memo (perhaps deliberately) that shows Russian policy makers worried about the situation in Dagestan, which has seen increased separatis sentiments and terrorist attacks of late.

The increasing rebel attacks in Dagestan (see EDM, July 7) have finally forced Russian authorities to focus on the problems of the republic. Officials in Moscow now realize that the region needs special handling. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov recently conceded, “Of course we are worried about explosions in Dagestan, and this difficult problem should be resolved by civil methods as well as by force (yufo.ru, July 6).

On July 8, Moskovsky komsomolets published a report leaked from the office of Dmitry Kozak, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy to the Southern Federal District. The report, from Kozak to Putin, described Dagestan as rife with interethnic, religious, and social conflicts and on the brink of collapse. Specifically, “One should recognize that, taken together, the unsolved social, economic, and political problems are now reaching a critical level. Further ignoring the problems and attempts to drive them deep down by force could lead to an uncontrolled chain of events whose logical result will be open social, interethnic, and religious conflicts in Dagestan” (Moskovsky komsomolets, July 8). The authors of the report also warned that the rising influence of religious communities, especially at the local-government level, could result in the emergence of “Sharia enclaves” in the mountain districts of the republic. The report warned that an Islamic state could potentially materialize in the Dagestan mountains.

An Islamic state? I’m not so sure — actually, I’m rather cold on the idea that it would happen, that is, unless Russia makes it happen. The problems in Dagestan are part of a region-wide outbreak stemming from Chechnya, whose condition is generally due to a decade of military repression. Velvet revolutions in the former USSR notwithstanding, there have been large protests as well in Ingushetia, another province bordering Chechnya.

This is bad news for Russia, who effectively turned the separatist movement into a terrorist haven with wide support against the Russian government. The place is literally at the point of no return — a vicious cycle in which repression has led to extremism, rinse, and repeat. There can’t be any virtue in defending the terrorists in Chechnya, as that is what they are now, but it also can’t be forgotten that they were not always terrorists. Now, however, they are looking to export it from Chechnya to Ingushetia and Dagestan. And it has the potential to spread steadily throughout the entire North Caucasus.

UPDATE: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has a great article about the situation, called “Anatomy of a permanent crisis.” Very fitting.