After several attempts at presenting various cabinet line ups, President Lahoud has finally approved a package of ministers worked out by Premier-designate Seniora that will form the whole of the new government. Again, can someone say finally? It’s been exactly a month now since parliamentary elections were held. Now, Seniora will begin working with the cabinet toward fixing the country’s problems, especially dealing with Syria and the debt crisis.
Prime Minister Fouad Seniora gave a dramatic assurance to the nation that he would not levy new taxes as his newly formed government went through the motions of taking office Wednesday to try to shield Lebanon from the aftershocks of Syria’s disintegrating reign of terror.
“Let the people rest assured. I am not going to impose new taxes,” Seniora said in a telephone interview carried by the leftist daily As Safir shortly before the 24 cabinet ministers converged on the Baabda Palace for the midmorning inaugural picture with President Lahoud, which was taken on the palace doorsteps.
The new government then held its first meeting at the cabinet headquarters in Beirut’s mid-city Museum district to form a committee that would write the policy statement with which Seniora will seek a vote of confidence from parliament early next week.
Now, let’s get to the nitty gritty, because this line up is rife with potential controversy. Suffice to say the make up is tellingly different from some of the first line ups presented: Aoun is nowhere to be found, pro-Syrian President Lahoud has three allies in the cabinet, and both Hizb’allah and Amal have two ministries each.
The lion’s share of the new cabinet went to the March 14 alliance of Saad Hariri’s Tayyar al Mustaqbal, Walid Jumblat’s Progressive Socialist Party, Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces and Qornet Shahwan coalition of center-right Christian politicians.
Hariri’s Hassan al Sabaa was retained as Interior Minister. Other Harirists took the portfolios of State Ministry for Parliamentary Affairs, Education, Public Works and Transport, Youth and Sports, Administrative Development, Economy and Trade and Finance.
Jumblat’s bloc in parliament took the Telecommunications, Information and the War Displaced Portfolios.
Qornet Shahwan took the Industry and the Social Affairs Ministries and the LF the Ministry of Tourism.
Lahoud loyalists took four portfolios, including his son-in-law Elias Murr, who survived a recent car bomb assassination attempt and was released from hospital on Monday. He was named Vice Premier and Defense Minister.
Four portfolios went to Hizbullah and Speaker Berri’s Amal Movement, two apiece. They also approved an independent Shiite for the Foreign Ministry, Fawzi Salloukh, a 36 year veteran of Lebanon’s diplomatic corps who is a non-partisan.
Aoun has set himself up to be essentially the political opposition to the administration from inside parliament, which is probably the best place for him to ferment his notoriety. He will be an interesting case study in Lebanese politics, but Hizb’allah and the Lahoud loyalists are far more interesting in the make up of the cabinet.
This is the first time that Hizb’allah has ever been given a post in the government. They took the energy ministry, and have a friend in Trad Hamadeh as the labor minister. The Amal party, who Hizb’allah electorally allied with despite their historically searing ties, took public health and agriculture. These all seem to represent fairly well their general constituencies in the South and Bekaa Valley, where there is a lot of farmland and, er, cheap labor. The United States has obviously taken shot at the Hizb’allah minister and will not engage in any dialogue with him due to their U.S. status as a terrorist organization.
Well, luckily for the United States, Hizb’allah didn’t get exactly what it wanted. In earlier attempts to form the cabinet, they lobbied hard to get the portfolio for the foreign ministry, which would have been a diplomatic disaster. But Seniora gets off the hook pretty well by giving them portfolios not heavily linked with the debt crisis and dealing with Syria. I would say their positions are relatively minor in comparison, but it will force the question of whether or not they can govern. If they can, it will mean that they will have to do so in a manner interested in Lebanon instead of their backers in Iran and Syria, and if they can’t, they will lose their credibility. Overall, this inclusion could be to Seniora’s favor.
The most bizarre part of this cabinet is the inclusion of three ministers loyal to President Lahoud. Elias Murr, who was targetted by a car bomb not too long ago, will receive the position of vice premier and defense minister. Before this cabinet was formed, he was the only pro-Syrian being considered for a post within the cabinet, and is certainly qualified for the position. However, it is much too ironic for me that the justice ministry is going to a Lahoud loyalist despite the ongoing accusations and investigation into the previous government’s involvement in the Hariri assassination. This even as the UN investigation team is saying that one of the security chiefs is a suspect.
One last thing that must be taken into consideration is the “subversive 1/3,” which is a function in the Lebanese government to allow the veto of any decision if 1/3 of the ministers move against it. There are 24 ministers and Hariri’s alliance has 15 of the seats, which leaves nine open with eight needed to subvert the government. The first three would be the Lahoud loyalists, and most likely another two would come from Hizb’allah. They would need three more, of which Amal has two. However, I don’t think Amal would necessarily bite. Speaker Nabih Berri, leader of the Amal movement, may have teamed up with Nasrallah for the election but their still hate each others’ guts. I’ll bet that he is much less likely to be confrontational outright.
Assuming he does, on occassion, take issue with government policy, that would mean they have seven ministers and would only need one more. I saved discussion of Fawzi Salloukh, the foreign minister, for this point specifically. He is a political nonpartisan with decades of experience in diplomacy, but I can imagine some people are worried because he is a Shiite and was nominated with promotion by the former two parties. Even if he does take a subversive stance at the same time Amal does (and this is assuming he ever does), this 1/3 alliance could be broken at any time if any one of the ministers does not dissent. Remember, Hizb’allah and Amal do not represent all Shiites in Lebanon — far from it. They also have to focus on the desires of their constituents, and if Tony’s post about Shiites getting pissed at Syria over the trade blockade is telling, their chances for vetoes will likely happen far and in between.