Last week I noted a leaked memo from the Kremlin discussing its fear of the collapse of the republic of Dagestan, located in the North Caucasus. In essense, their ultra repressive tactics against separatist Chechnya has led to an endless cycle of repression, which breeds extremism, which earns an even more repressive repsonse from Moscow. This extremism against the Russian state is being exported throughout the entire North Caucasus. Essentially, what once were separatist rebels are transformd into terrorists working alongside Islamic militants. Putin is now up against an entire region of his country that wants to break away violently.

Just a couple of days after the memo was leaked, in fact, Putin announced that he would be paying a visit to Dagestan in the light of an increase in terrorist attacks. He is worried, rightly, that all of the republics could turn into Chechnyas and Dagestans within a few years.

On July 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin made an unannounced visit to the North Caucasus republic of Dagestan, the very place where he began his climb to the presidency in 1999. In August 1999, Islamic militants from neighboring Chechnya invaded two districts of Dagestan, and Putin, the freshly minted Russian prime minister, went to the republic to encourage the soldiers and security service officers fighting against the invaders. Putin not only reassured the servicemen whom he visited on the frontline, but his actions calmed the worries of most of the Russian public as well. The Russians saw Putin as a figure who could stop the chain of humiliating defeats in the Caucasus, who could restore control over Chechnya, and who could erect a barrier to separatism and Islamic extremism throughout the region. In 1999 Putin looked confident and determined to fulfill his mission.

The atmosphere surrounding his second visit to Dagestan was quite different. The reason for this journey was the recent upswing in attacks by local rebels. After six years of an extremely hard-line policy based on unlimited use of force in the North Caucasus, Putin still faces the same problem in the region: militant separatism.

Unlike his first visit, this time Putin looked disappointed and criticized security officials for their inability to suppress the insurgency. The Russian president went to the republic accompanied by his key advisors, including Sergei Ivanov, minister of defense, and Vladimir Patrushev, director of the Federal Security Service (FSB).
…
The response of other Caucasian leaders to the latest Kozak statement is not known yet, but there is no doubt that all of them will try one way or another to persuade the Kremlin that they still can control the situation at least in the economic sector. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that they will be able to produce arguments strong enough to calm down Russian authorities. Moscow is ready for radical changes. If the situation in the Caucasus continues to deteriorate, even Moscow’s best-behaved puppet leaders will be totally removed from the decision-making process and will be replaced by groups of Russian officials executing orders coming directly from the center.

Not only are Russia’s old satellites in eastern Europe breaking away, but the country itself is seemingly crumbling from the inside. As this happens, Putin will continue to centralize power in Moscow, stripping any amount of autonomy from the republics. From this there will be a reaction, and from that a counter-reaction. Putin has already instituted a system whereby he appoints regional governors, and I expect it to go much further before it gets any better.

The governor of North Ossetia resigned recently due to the Beslan massacre. North Ossetia is one of the regions in the North Caucasus, easily accessed by the rebels. However, the mishandling of the investigation into the terrorist attack is gaining Russia wide scorn in thw city. Between bribed military officers, government officials hiding evidence, and now the possibility that police started the deadly fire, North Ossetia may be ready to lash out soon.

Deputy Prosecutor General Nikolai Shepel, who reversed his earlier statements by making the admission last week, adamantly insisted, however, that the Shmel flamethrowers could not have sparked the inferno during a special forces operation to free the 1,200 hostages on Sept. 3. More than 330 people died in the Sept. 1-3 attack, about half of them children.

If prosecutors find that the commandos intentionally ignited the gym, as some Beslan residents and a regional lawmaker believe, it would mean that Russia violated an international convention banning the use of incendiary weapons that might injure or kill civilians, said Alexander Cherkasov, a senior member of the Memorial human rights group. Prosecutors also would then face the potentially unpleasant prospect of having to open an investigation into the military and security officials who organized the rescue operation, he said.

Now, Putin is now ready to possibly endanger civil society, or what there is of one. He criticized NGOs funded by foreigners (the vast majority of human rights, democracy, and development ones), which means that a slow and arduous crackdown may be coming if it hasn’t already started. The situation has been degrading for years now as he probably sees them as agents for unrest.

Is it any wonder that Freedom House downgraded Russia’s status to “not free” in December?