Kazakhstan is the most economically developed country in the region, yet after a series of colored revolutions in the former USSR, President Nazarbaev has begun to pay more attention to the activities of opposition groups and especially NGOs. The presidential election in 2006, therefore, is going to be an important milestone in judging the strength of Nazarbayev’s position. Nobody thought there would be a revolution in Kyrgyzstan, and neither did Akayev.

Now, it seems as if President Bush has set this country in his sights for another possible success. He has written a letter to Nazerbayev urging him to take “bold” steps in political reform to match those he has made in economics.

U.S. President George W. Bush urged his Kazakh counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev to follow up the Central Asian nation’s recent economic success with democratic reforms, the president’s press office said Tuesday.

Bush’s call comes in the wake of anti-government uprisings last spring in two other ex-Soviet republics in the region. One led to the ouster of an autocratic leader in Kyrgyzstan, while a revolt in Uzbekistan in May was bloodily suppressed by government troops, and control over the country was further tightened.

“The latest events in the region have stressed the importance of a balanced economic growth, responsible governance and democratic development,” Bush told Nazarbayev in a letter sent Monday, the president’s press office said. “I urge you to make sure that economic reforms are backed up with bold democratic reforms in Kazakhstan.”

Widespread poverty was one of the triggers leading to the uprisings in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

Bush also urged Nazarbayev to ensure the country’s upcoming presidential elections were free and fair. Nazarbayev, a former communist boss who has held power for 16 years, has said he intends to run for another seven-year term in elections expected in December.

If I were an autocratic dictator, I wouldn’t want the leader of the free world to even know that I exist. But if I remember correctly, the economic reforms have been followed with stopping all funding to foreign NGOs in the country, which is a big setback for civil society. Also, political movement activities are generally illegal unless they’re registered, which required approval from the government. Not exactly an ideal environment for opposition.

However, it may or may not be a coincidence, but the largest opposition alliance was allowed to register, marking an interesting move by the regime.

3 August 2005 (RFE/RL) — Leaders of the For A Fair Kazakhstan opposition alliance today said authorities had formally registered their movement.

The movement says in a statement the Justice Ministry handed in the registration papers yesterday.

“It’s good new that we’ve got our registration ÄpapersÅ. Our hands are now untied,” Serikbai Alibai, who heads the alliance’s Astana branch, told RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service. In the past our activities were restricted. But now, whatever we decide to do in the name of the movement, we have the right to do, it is entirely legal. According to ÄKazakhstan’sÅ most recent regulations, a movement can be fined or even face trial if it is not officially registered.”

The registration formally authorizes Kazakhstan’s largest opposition alliance to nominate its candidate in the next presidential elections.

Government officials say the vote is scheduled for December 2006. But the opposition insists it should take place much earlier.

For A Fair Kazakhstan is made up of three main opposition political groupings — the Real Ak Zhol Democratic Party of Kazakhstan, the Communist Party, and representatives of the now disbanded Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan.

Its leader is Zharmakhan Tuyakbai, a former parliament speaker and member of Kazakhstan’s Otan ruling party who is expected to run against President Nursultan Nazarbaev.

They will still face harassment and a lack of access to media to promote their platform, but there is still more than a year can go. As we saw with Kyrgyzstan, anything can happen. In fact, one of the party leaders within the aforementioned alliance is right now in the United States seeking help from international organizations. Really, this could be considered a campaign of sorts, because one of the best ways to open up a country is to use international pressure, and spreading the word inside free countries is the best way to do this.

Washington, D.C. – Scripps Howard Foundation Wire – infoZine – Alikhan Baimenov, co-founder and chair of the Ak zhol Democratic Party, spoke Monday at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was in town asking Western experts to analyze the current political situation in Kazakhstan.

“Ak Zhol party tries to convince current state authorities in the need for the reforms. And we are interested in a peaceful overthrow,” he said.

The article goes on to note that Kazakhstan is becoming a middle income country, so the potential to resolve the political situation without a revolution is there. Indeed, the uprisings both in Kyrgyzstan and the Andijon uprising in Uzbekistan both began in impoverished areas where the main concerns of the protestors were economic in nature. As the date draws closer for elections, we will begin to see clearer just exactly what kind of atmosphere is taking place. In the meantime, President Bush is putting the Post Office to good use by defining directly to Nazarbayev what the United States’ interests are in his country and what he expects to happen. That’s tough pressure to ignore; the source of nightmares for dictators everywhere in this day and age.