A writer at Kommersant thinks so, given the trend of events over the last half year or so, and he thinks Russia’s banning of ABC over its airing of an interview with Shamil Basayev is the freezing point.

It is not surprising that Washington defended the TV company. The thing is that the Nightline program with Shamil Basaev happened at the right time when Russian-American relationship has reached the maximum freezing point.

It is not hard to remind that the main problem between Russian and the United States appeared right after the Beslan events. Then President of Russia Vladimir Putin in his famous accusation speech said that the blame for the death of children and other civilians was on those who ???????want to tear a fat piece from us??????? and those who are ???????helping them thinking that Russia as one of the largest nuclear powers of the world is still dangerous for some.??????? There was no country named in this speech, however, the hint was clear. The Russian rhetoric after the Orange Revolution in Ukraine became even harder. About that time, Putin spoke against ???????men in colonial helmets??????? that are pointing to others how they should live and if they disagree, then they punish them with ???????the help of missiles and bombs like it was in Yugoslavia.??????? After that, it became clear which country he met.

However, on the official level everything was staying the same. George Bush and Vladimir Putin continued to meet with each other, look each other in the eyes and talk about cooperation. However, the statements from Russian officials were sounding more and more anti-American. And American Congressmen were more and more criticizing Moscow for Yukos, freedom of the word and Chechnya, and demanding that Russia be expelled from the G8. Even Condoleezza Rice was publicly scolding Moscow for not enough democracy.

It is possible that the breaking point in the bi-lateral relationship was the G8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland. That was the last meeting of the Russian and American president. And it looks like that this meeting started the new Cold War because after that the mutual criticism increased.

He may have a point, though certainly everything looks fine on the outside. Several times this year Bush and Putin have met, with the two talking about cooperation between the United States and Russia. However, when the issue of reform comes up, Putin goes cold. He has gone from simple lashes like saying that the U.S. government “fired” Dan Rather and the U.S. is undemocratic in many ways, to overt strategic maneuvers that threaten democratization in the entire region. He is now trying to destabilize the free Baltic states, backed Uzbekistan in its massacre of peaceful protestors, is propping up the dictator in Belarus, is making deals with Iran and Syria, and is teaming up with China in a strategic alliance to thwart U.S. influence in Central Asia as a whole.

Bush probably thought earlier in the year that he could convince Putin that reform is the best way to assure Russia’s future, but it looks as if he hasn’t been. The democracy agenda is in direct opposition to Putin’s, as his political fortunes are based on his ability to keep Russia whole and powerful. It seems that many of these freed territories don’t want anything to do with the bloated bureaucracy in Moscow and would rather break away.

The two leaders have not gone after each other directly — that would be below the presidency, both morally and institutionally. Instead, Russian government officials and parliamentarians are taking shots at the U.S., while American officials in the State Department are doing the same to Russia. But one thing is certainly clear from all of this. Both the U.S. and Russia are engaged in a silent power struggle for influence in the regions most critical to Russia, something that neither side believes they can afford to lose. As we see various forms of progress in the near abroad, including simple reform and colored revolutions, Putin will likely become more and more personally hostile to the U.S.’s presence in the area absolutely.