The leader of the Yeni Fikr youth movement has been arrested by authorities, who are claiming that he took money from Armenian special intelligence in order to prepare a revolution in Azerbaijan through a plot hatched by the United States NDI.

Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor-General’s Office announced on 4 August the arrest of Ruslan Bashirli, leader of the opposition youth movement Yeni Fikir (New Thinking), on charges of plotting to overthrow the Azerbaijani leadership at the instigation of Armenian intelligence operatives. Those allegations, which the Armenian National Security Service and Bashirli’s fellow Azerbaijani oppositionists have both rejected, highlight Azerbaijan’s ongoing suspicion and hostility toward Armenia and call into question Baku’s commitment to creating a “level playing field” for all parties wishing to participate in the 6 November parliamentary election.

Bashirli was arrested on 3 August and charged with plotting to overthrow the Azerbaijani leadership at the instigation of Armenian intelligence agents with whom he allegedly met in Tbilisi on 28-29 July. Bashirli allegedly accepted $2,000 from one of the Armenians who promised to provide him within days with a further $20,000. A second Yeni Fikir member, Osman Alimuradov, who accompanied Bashirli to Tbilisi, said he rejected pressure to co-opt him and subsequently denounced Bashirli to the Azerbaijani authorities, Turan and day.az reported. Bashirli is said to have told the Armenians that he has received explicit instructions from the U.S. National Democracy Institute to prepare for a “revolution” in Azerbaijan.

But two deputy chairmen of Yeni Fikir, Said Nuriev and Fikret Faramazoglu, gave a different account of Bashirli’s encounter in Tbilisi at a press conference in Baku on 5 August, day.az reported. Nuriev said that Bashirli was offered the $2,000 by representatives of Georgian and Armenian “democratic forces.” They said he was drunk at the time, and hypothesized that his drink may have been spiked. They said that Bashirli returned the money the following day. Legal expert Tofig Guliev told the same 5 August press conference that none of Bashirli’s actions were unlawful and that there was no talk of seizing power in Azerbaijan. Bashirli’s current whereabouts are not known.

The rivalry between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t exactly a secret, but these are serious charges that can potentially inflame tensions with both Armenia and the United States. AzTV, the state-owned station, has broadcasted a tape allegedly showing Bashirli meeting with three men in Georgia, accepting the wad of cash, and making incriminating statements.

Whether this is all true or not, I don’t know, but using Armenia is probably the best way for the Azeri government to discredit the opposition in one sure-fire nationalistic sweep. Also, this is not the first time that Armenia has been used as a scapegoat. Obviously, opposition forces in Azerbaijan have received training and other forms of help from NDI, but this story is itself hard to believe coming straight from the government’s mouth. It’s awfully convenient, also, because now the government is using it as an excuse to clamp down on all political parties. Yes, those are the words they used.

BAKU, Aug 4 (AFP) – The authorities in the former Soviet state of Azerbaijan said Thursday they would clamp down on political parties, vowing to increase control ahead of parliamentary elections and to crackdown on financing from abroad.

The authorities will “strengthen control over the activities of political parties ahead of parliamentary elections,” the head of the justice ministry’s department for registering parties, Fazil Mamedov, said in televised remarks.

Foreign finance of political parties “will be prevented,” he added.

Mamedov said violators would have their registrations revoked, while those responsible for offences within political parties would be punished.

Mamedov said evidence existed that a number of parties were receiving money from outside Azerbaijan’s borders.

Of course, this is true of youth movements in most of the recent velvet revolution countries. But it doesn’t make sense since the strategy here seems to be simply hold free and fair elections, which would allow some of the opposition to get into parliament and thus work with the more liberal forces within the current government. While I personally think Azerbaijan is the most likely place this year for a velvet revolution to happen, I don’t think the U.S. government is particularly pushing for that kind of regime change specifically for Azberijan. Though I may be wrong, in the very least, the director of NDI is completely denying any involvement.

???????The allegations that we are funding a revolution just aren????????t true,??????? NDI????????s director for Azerbaijan, Christy Quirk told AFP.

Tim Russo, who is a former worker with NDI in the region, is very worried about this development.

Strange, since only last month Azerbaijan’s president was welcoming Madeline Allbright, former US secretary of state, and currently NDI’s chair, with open arms.

The thugs who run such tinpot shitholes of electoral fraud as Azerbaijan play these games quietly, all the time. In Russia, when I was working with NDI in St. Petersburg, the FSB (KGB’s successor rump) regularly spied on our operation, sending fake participants to our programs, paying visits to our office asking to see our passports, tapping our phones and faxes, so much so that they intimidated my interpreter to flee the country without telling anyone. We were out of St. Petersburg within the month.

This is a much more dangerous situation. Recent repression of opposition in Azerbaijan, espcially youth groups which have received NDI training, has brought the authorities into direct conflict with NDI. The Republican counterpart to NDI, the International Republican Institute, had its Azerbaijan director killed in 2000, under very iffy circumstances. Whatever happened then, NDI’s staff in Baku is not in a good position. I wouldn’t be surprised if NDI pulls out in the near future.

This is a very troubling situation. In a single day, we may be seeing all of the progress made in Azerbaijan over the past few months take a 180, and a much more sinister plot unfolding. With several months to go until parliamentary elections, the hardliners in the government and security apparatus must have realized the threat posed by these groups that are bringing ideas of liberalism into the political arena, especially since they’ve gained much more recognition after being allowed to protest freely. Free and fair elections doesn’t just mean counting the votes correctly, it means everything that comes beforehand. It looks like the government is going to try to disrupt that as much as possible.