We’ve discussed Belarus quite a bit over the past few days, including an item showing that Congress approved $24 million of funding for opposition parties in the countries. Now, it seems as if the EU has finally moved beyond “stern condemnations” to real action, by getting ready to set aside funds for similar measures that the U.S. is taking.

THE European Union is set to provide cash for opposition parties in the former Soviet republic of Belarus.

EU diplomats are considering direct funding to allow Belarus’s opposition parties to compete with the pro-government campaign. If approved, it would mark a major shift in EU policy towards promoting democracy.

It would also mark a significant ramping up of pressure on the authorities in Minsk, but would risk antagonising Moscow. Russia has a close relationship with Belarus and is still smarting over what it sees as Western interference in Ukraine, which is looking to join the EU and Nato.

A document prepared by the EU policy unit says that the “Lukashenko regime is becoming increasingly repressive”, pointing to the harassment of the opposition and of lobbyists for reform, and asks whether “direct/indirect opposition support” should be considered.

Brussels is also considering visa restrictions on Belarussian officials and the freezing of some of the country’s overseas assets. Olga Stuzhinskaya, who represents a coalition of Belarussian opposition parties and NGOs, told the Brussels-based news magazine European Voice: “The situation for opposition parties is very bad.

“In the last couple of years all the donors have moved out and the political parties have been left on their own. Many have closed. Everyone is talking about great support for the opposition, for civil society and isolating the regime but nothing happens. The repression increases.”

Many leading figures in the Belarussian opposition have been charged with criminal activities, debarring them from running in the elections – a move seen as a trick by the government to neutralise the opposition.

While the EU is unwilling to allow Belarus to continue as Europe’s most repressed country, the obstacles to democratic reform are considerable.

Lukashenko has warned that anyone who attempts to spark a revolution will be treated as a “hellraiser” and given “special treatment”.

In contrast to Ukraine, Belarus lacks a high-profile and well-organised opposition. Ukraine’s burgeoning middle class – a factor absent in Belarus – gave much of the impetus to last year’s ‘Orange Revolution’ in Kiev out of fear that an undemocratic government would jeopardise their standard of living.

They’re also taking an extra step in providing funding for television and radio broadcasts to serve as an alternative to state run media.

1 August 2005 (RFE/RL) — The European Union says it is exploring the possibilities to support independent media outlets such as radio and television in Belarus to give the country a source of information other than state-controlled broadcasters.

EU spokesman Amadeu Tardio said today that the broadcasts could be financed from the EU’s 8 million-euro human rights budget.

The statement follows last week’s condemnation by the EU executive of what it said were “acts of intimidation by the Belarusian authorities” against members of the Polish minority.

A velvet revolution in Belarus will be no easy task. A variety of positive variables are missing, including a middle class, some independent media, and a well-organized and high-profile opposition. Kyrgyzstan was a different case, however, because their revolution began at the hands of the more economically impoverished. It could go either way, but the one thing that has to be kept in mind is that Lukashenko will likely take great measures to violently put down any protests. On that note, I hope the way that the U.S. and EU go about funding and training these opposition groups is very well done. They’re going to need it.

This particular news about EU funding pointed directly at democracy in Belarus marks a very significant shift in European policy towards promoting democracy in general. As I wrote at the beginning of the post, the EU is moving from statements and words to action.

Besides the fact that the U.S. is pushing the issue, foreign policy in Europe is now highly affected by the new EU countries of central and eastern Europe. Poland, which is in a huge diplomatic row with Belarus, the Baltic states, Finland, Romania, Moldova, and others nearby (such as Ukraine) are all very keen to see regime change so that despotism no longer resides nearby.

Perhaps the most important part of this is that the EU is showing its new willingness to tackle such a big international issue against the wishes of Russia. Putin is openly backing Lukashenko and trying to prop up his regime as a thorn in Europe’s side. In any other year, Europe would probably have opened its mouth but not much more. Now it is openly funding opposition against him at the nudging of the eastern states, a move which could ultimately lead to a standoff between the two powers should the regime begin to crumble.