With Monday looming as the deadline to submit the Iraqi constitution to the National Assembly for a vote, we’re all sitting here wondering, “Will it be done on time?” President Talabani thinks so. In fact, he’s saying that it will be done early.

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) – Iraqi leaders rushing to finish a constitution Saturday reported tentative agreements on distribution of oil wealth and other issues, but there was no deal on the main obstacle: federalism.

President Jalal Talabani predicted the constitution would be submitted to the National Assembly on Sunday – one day before the deadline for parliamentary approval.

But some committee members said serious divisions remained among the Shiite Muslim, Sunni Arab and Kurdish leaders, particularly on the question of whether Iraq should be transformed into a federated state. Talabani acknowledged negotiations continued.

“The meetings are still going on and we have gone forward,” he told reporters. “There is a meeting today and another meeting tomorrow and, God willing, we will finish the job tomorrow.”

As far as I know, the U.S. has entered in full force as a mediator between all the groups, even offering up its own proposals to resolve the outstanding issues. The biggest issue, and the one every group seems to be wrangling about, is federalism. So let’s talk about that.

For one, leaving big, contentious decisions like the separation of regions, oil distribution, and the role of Islam to amendments made by future parliaments. This way negotiation and bargaining can take place without a time schedule. The term coined for parliamentary debate is “enlightened democracy,” something that should probably be employed more. Referendum tends to play toward peoples’ worst fears instead of their best hopes, so having so many issues unresolved or contended within the current constitution will leave it getting smacked down.

So far, the Kurds have their autonomous region in the north. They have a regional parliament and a police force that keeps things relatively peaceful. Overall, they enjoy a level of prosperity greater than that shared by the rest of Iraq. Based on this alone, the argument for federalism is a very good one and is being used by the religious Shiite groups in the south for their own region.

The Sunni groups, however, are contending the federalization will split the country apart, especially since the groupings are being done along sectarian lines. They have a strong basis for their argument, too. The Kurds, having lived in autonomy since Saddam’s era, have been consistently pushing for independence. The Sunnis are afraid that, should the entire country be split up into separate regions, the country will disintegrate completely. In the south, the religious parties are pro-Iran, creating the fear that the south might secede and join its oil-rich lands with its eastern neighbor.

This obviously cannot happen. But another problem exists. Religious Shiite militias like the Badr army have effectively filled the vacuum that the government has not, giving them them the authority to build local religious dictatorships without much consequence. Those not belonging to the sectarian majority have their rights taken away and live within a type of social terrorism.

So that brings up another question of federalism. Since the regions are tending to unite or divide based on sectarian differences, what happens to minorities caught within these boundaries? Should the regions divide completely in a sectarian manner, with all groups moving to one or another as violence between them erupts, then surely the country is doomed to split permanently.

When the constitution is passed, the federal government will need to not only have the ultimate monopoly on force to prevent this, but it will need to use it in order to protect the rights of individuals on the local level. Armed groups like the Badr army cannot be allowed to fill the political vacuum as they impose whatever ideology they deem appropriate on the entire local populace. That’s how the split will occur. This means the only way to create a culture where sectarianism takes a second seat to liberal ideas and being Iraqi is by effectively enforcing individual rights. There is no better way to bring the country closer together than by ensuring its people can be free.