For anyone else watching the riveting countdown to the constitution, Iraq the Model is the place to be. Omar has been giving up-to-the-minute updates on the National Assembly session, which was required to approve a draft constitution for referendum by midnight. They convened at just past 11, which really means that they were cutting things close. Given that a few very important issues remain unresolved, however, the assembly voted to change the TAL charter to allow themselves an extra week to work on the draft.
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) – Iraq’s parliament agreed to a seven-day extension for leaders to complete a draft constitution, after politicians failed to reach a midnight Monday deadline to agree on the charter.
Parliament adjourned after voting to extend the deadline until Aug. 22, acting on a request from Kurdish leaders for more time.
Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish framers of the charter had reached a tentative deal late Monday, agreeing on issues ranging from oil revenues to the country’s name but putting off decision on the most contentious questions – including women’s rights, the role of Islam and possible Kurdish autonony.
Efforts to meet the Aug. 15 deadline showed how determined Iraqis are to maintain political momentum under intense U.S. pressure, but their failure to agree was a clear sign that their sharp political divisions are far from over.
I think that it is a good thing that the committe members will be able to reflect on and refine the hard work that they’ve done over the past few weeks, and over the past few days especially. They certainly need to bridge a large disconnect between their own ideologies and the wishes of the Iraqi people.
Arthur Chrenkoff published a poll the other day that deserves more attention, showing that some of the negotiations going on behind the scenes in the drafting committees are quite offbeat from what is desired by the country as a whole. Look at the results:
87.1% of those Iraqi polled prefer a federal rather than a central government.
84.4% of those polled requested that it be mandated that women to receive representation.
10.4% said they did not want women to get any representation.
65% preferred that Islam be one of the religious sources for the constitution.
26% prefer that Islam be the only source for the constitution.
It must seem strange then that federalism and Islam as solely a source of legislation instead of the source are issues that the assembly can’t seem to decide on. But the two are very closely related, and the Sunni concern that federalism could break up Iraq as a nation are well-placed.
First of all, the Kurds have already declared that they want to maintain their autonomy and even vote on their independence sometime down the line. Meanwhile, religious militias, filling in the cracks, have begun dominating the Shiite south and repressing freedom on the local level. Shiite religious parties currently part of the assembly are backed by these groups and pushing very hard for a self-governing Shiite state in the south. These same parties are the ones pushing for Islam to be the sole source of legislation in the constitution.
Even though January’s elections went incredibly well, the result was exactly as expected. Religious parties are now in power because they enjoyed the most political support at a time when civil society had not yet had a broad discussion on their impact. This is the cause of the disconnect between public opinion and the ideology of those currently deciding whether or not Islam should be the source of legislation.
As for federalism, the best way to ensure that it works so that the country stays together is by ensuring the former: that Islam does not become the sole source of legislation and that the government protects individual freedoms in the face of local oppression.
Of course, that’s what they should do. Even the Kurds, likely to continue pushing for independence over the next few years, may eventually lower any demands as long as the federal government proves to better their lives. So why the rush to make decisions on these issues? Why not leave it up to future parliaments to negotiate in order to avoid a “no” setback? Because come the parliamentary election in December, the gap will likely be closed by a large margin, meaning that religious parties will lose seats as the public has learned what they represent. And they don’t want it. Also, the Sunnis won’t be boycotting, which will give them a larger representation to fuel direct opposition to sectarian federalism.
Lastly, the major hurdle the religious Shiite parties can’t ignore is that the constitution’s ratification will ultimately be left to the people. A rejection would be a forebringer of their political future to come, which wouldn’t be such a bad thing. But a rejection would also bring a halt to the momentum that has been building up, so if they can’t temper themselves to bring about a solution that the public will agree on, then these issues need to be set aside until a new, better representative parliament takes seat. Hopefully this extra week will be used to reflect on that, instead of how to divide and conquer the country.
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