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RUSSIA AND CHINA STAGE JOINT WAR GAMES

In a continuing sequence of improved bilateral relations, Russia and China are staging first-ever joint military exercises over the next eight days. Andrew Young takes a look at all of the dimensions, both charitable and provocative. Here is his conclusion:

Geopolitical considerations are also important to this exercise, although less important than the practical Russian and Chinese aims that I’ve outlined above. The two countries have an increasingly close, although still edgy relationship. Any kind of operation like this allows them to develop a closer working relationship and, more importantly, gives an outward show of co-operation to the rest of the world. This show is particularly directed at the United States. From China’s perspective, they will want to give the impression that, should they invade Taiwan, they have at least one major ally. Additionally, both countries will want to demonstrate that they are able to provide at least some kind of counterbalance to American dominance in the world, and that together they provide at least one of the poles of a multi-polar world.

So, what do we have? A complex military exercise with multi-layered objectives, and a large number of justifications. China will benefit more from the exercise than Russia and is, I think, rapidly becoming the senior partner in this relationship – although just how long Russia will be content to remain a junior partner is less sure. There are plenty of internal tensions which will probably pull their relationship apart over time but, right now, we have a hybrid dragon-bear forcefully telling the world at large that it is a major player.

I am, of course, incredibly wary of what’s going on here. One of the biggest achievements of the Cold War was Henry Kissinger’s maneuvering that helped split Soviet Russia and Red China into outright hostility toward one another. This cooperation is another leap forward in relations between the two, something that has stepped up miraculously in the past few months in the face of U.S. influence in Central Asia and color revolutions across the region. It has especially become apparent after western criticism of Uzbekistan after the Andijon massacre back in May, when China and Russia openly backed President Karimov’s dictatorship.

This isn’t the first event to signal increased cooperation between the two countries. At the beginning of July, President Hu Jintao visited Russia for a summit between the two countries in which they signed a joint declaration calling for a “new world order in the 21st century.” Specifically, one not dominated by a certain un-named superpower. A few days later, the two countries met with other Central Asian leaders in Kazakhstan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which is becomingly increasingly influential. There, they called for the U.S. to pull out of Central Asia.

Most troubling about this revving up of relations is that both countries are still mired in authoritarianism, meaning that a united front between the two would be very detrimental to the spread of freedom in the world. There is a key difference between how free countries and authoritarian countries use their influence in the world. The United States, for example, is trying to spread democracy. China and Russia, on the other hand, are supporting dictatorships throughout their entire continent.

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