Rumors are flying around Rangoon like mad, as word is going around that Than Shwe, the senior general of the military junta that rules Burma, has been possibly deposed by his number two. Everything is unconfirmed, but Burmese state media has not yet discounted any of the rumors, and Than Shwe isn’t to be seen. Nobody really knows what’s going on at this point, but intelligence officials are working overtime to figure it all out.

BANGKOK (Reuters) – Rumours swirled in army-ruled Myanmar and neighbouring Thailand on Wednesday that junta strongman Senior General Than Shwe has been removed by the powerful army commander.

Reports suggested Than Shwe, head of a military junta which has ruled the former Burma in various forms since 1962, had been ousted by number two General Maung Aye although Yangon was calm and people said there was no extra security on the streets.

A Thai intelligence official told Reuters his organisation was trying to determine the truth of the rumours in the absence of official comment from the Yangon government.

“We’ve heard Maung Aye has seized power from Than Shwe, citing allegations of corruption and his involvement in illegal trade of weapons,” he said.

He said Thura Shwe Man, the number three general in the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), was rumoured to have been assigned to investigate Than Shwe’s alleged crimes.

However, Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon told reporters: “So far, everything is just a rumour. I am still sticking to my plan to visit Myanmar late this month.” Soe Myint, editor of the pro-democracy Mizzima News Web site mizzima.com, which is based in New Delhi, said there had been tension among the generals for some time.

“From what I have heard, a five-member group of generals led by General Maung Aye staged the coup during a weekly cabinet meeting on Monday,” he told Reuters in the Indian capital.

“The group accused Than Shwe of nepotism and said he was incapable of running the country. Ever since, there has been a total blackout and there has been no news from the cabinet meeting,” Soe Myint said.

UNDER ARREST?

Than Shwe has not been seen on state television since August 20 when he met U.N. envoy and former Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas, but official newspapers on Wednesday reported his message of congratulations to Ukraine on its independence day .

Diplomats in Yangon said they believed he was on a provincial tour.

“We understand he is out of town and this rumour did not start in Yangon, but outside the country,” a Southeast Asian diplomat said.

The opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) also played down the rumours.

“So far as we can confirm, this rumour is more likely not to be true. The situation across the city is quite normal,” NLD spokesman Nyan Win told Reuters.

But the Thai language newspaper Phuchatkan reported on its Web site at manager.co.th that Maung Aye, the army commander-in-chief had ordered Than Shwe detained at a Yangon hospital on Tuesday.

“General Maung Aye has taken over power since midnight on August 23,” the newspaper said, citing Thai intelligence sources.

Everyone seems to be giving different explanations of what’s going on, yet nobody seem to have any real clue. I don’t find it necessarily strange that the National League for Democracy would play down the rumors. They really don’t know what’s going on, the street is calm, and promoting the rumors could leave them in jail.

Mizzima News reports that the BBC Burma broadcast is reporting on the rumors, and that word on the street is that he is indeed being detained at a military hospital in Rangoon. Democratic Voice of Burma has more detailed information on what has happened over there.

At about noon on 24 August, rumours of Than Shwe??????s death from heart attack and removal from his position by fellow generals circulated in Rangoon with intensity. But when DVB investigated these rumours, sources close to the general??????s family doctor insisted that they are not true. They nevertheless confirmed that the general has been suffering from pains on his knees and mild paralysis.

An official from a military hospital told DVB that the daughter of SPDC vice-chairman Maung Aye, Nandar Aye was hospitalised in emergency on 23 August and a small security measure was placed around Mingaladon Military Hospital and people might have also thought that Than Shwe was hospitalised.

When DVB contacted sources close to the military HQs in Rangoon, they said the rumours could be the consequence of recent formation of a new 13-member committee led by Gen Maung Aye. A Rangoon-based western diplomat said that they could also be the result of the fact that Than Shwe??????s ‘son-in-law’ Teza was not seen in business circles for awhile.

Although nobody knows what is really happening with Than Shwe, the rumours had weakened the country’s currency and strengthened the price of gold, a Burmese jeweller said.

It also has more information about the rumors surrounding Than Shwe’s son, who has also not been seen for awhile.

We’re going to have to wait and see what happens. A lot of coincidences seem to coincide with one another to the point where some deductions can possibly be made. Than Shwe’s health is suffering to some degree, for sure. Chances are he is in the military hospital, but simply because of health or because of detainment, that cannot be known for now. If the latter, they may have taken advantage of his poor health in order to take the leadership.

To what degree goodwill plays here cannot be determined as well, though I somehow doubt the new leadership, if it exists, is doing it for pure intentions. Some of the rumors are based around the rest of the junta’s dissatisfaction with Than Shwe’s ability to govern, citing massive corruption and nepotism. That would certainly coincide with the investigations into his son. In the most positive of developments, the new junta leadership would have taken power to govern effectively and implement its “7-stage plan” for democracy. Very unlikely, however.

More as this develops.