Presidents Kocharian of Armenia and Aliyev of Azerbaijan, two countries tangled in constant conflict, are due to meet face to face at a CIS meeting today and will likely discuss relations between the two countries. In particular, the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Secretary Rice made sure to call them both up and put her word in, urging a solution to be found soon.

Question: What did Secretary Rice discuss during her phone calls to Presidents Aliyev and Kocharian?

Answer: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke briefly this morning with President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and President Robert Kocharian of Armenia. She did so in order to stress to them the importance that the United States attaches to their upcoming meeting in Kazan, and to express our hope that the two Presidents will make the compromises necessary in order to reach a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Both leaders were upbeat about the prospects for making progress.

The Secretary stressed to President Aliyev the importance of free and fair parliamentary elections this November in Azerbaijan, and noted his important role in this.

The Secretary also told President Kocharian she hoped Armenia would make progress toward enacting a package of constitutional reforms now before the parliament.

Some have proposed a referendum so that they could choose which country they want to be a part of, but there is opposition on both sides for a variety of reasons. Both stake a claim, and I believe that it would probably go to Armenia at the moment, but due to demographics Azerbaijanis would probably surpass the Armenian population within a decade or two. Also, government forces of both countries are constantly at work to sway the territory, and given the distrust between the two already, I doubt either could trust each other enough to have truly free and fair elections there. They don’t even have free and fair elections themselves!

Speaking of which, Azerbaijan will be having parliamentary elections and Armenia will vote on constitutional reforms this fall. Both could shift the political scene enough to the point where any negotiations now may not matter. If any solution is found, it probably won’t be until afterward, though I can imagine any grandstanding political maneuvers and high-level meetings are done solely for the purpose of shoring up the respective governments before their elections. It’s what happens afterward that will matter.