The biggest argument I’ve made with regards to the political crisis in Nepal has been that the king’s taking of absolute power will drive the political parties and civil society into the arms of the Maoists, mostly because they are in opposition to the king. It isn’t that the pro-democracy parties agree with the Maoist philosophy, but that they are acting out of the necessity of survival. And now, the Maoists have declared a ceasefire and the parties have entered into talks with them on how to unseat the government.

KATHMANDU, Sept. 3 (Xinhuanet) — Seven Nepali political parties have welcomed the announcement of the anti-government guerrillas’ leader Prachanda to observe a three-month-long ceasefire beginning Saturday.

Speaking at a joint mass meeting on Saturday afternoon, leadersof the seven-party alliance said the truce announcement is a positive step towards restoring peace in the country and resolve the political crisis facing the country.

“We welcome the announcement of ceasefire. Now, the guerrillas should be ready to lay down arms and come to the peaceful mainstream political competition,” Nepal Workers and Peasants Party Chairman Narayan Man Bijukchhe said.

The political problems should be addressed through an election to constituent assembly, which is a key demand of the guerrillas, Bijukchhe noted.

Acting president of Nepali Congress (Democratic) Gopal Man Shrestha, People’s Front Nepal chairman Amik Sherchan and Nepal Sadbhawana Party’s Bharat Bimal Yadab, among others, also welcomed the Prachanda’s statement and stressed the need to gear up lasting and peaceful solution to the political crisis.

The ceasefire and the peaceful political alliance between the parties and the Maoists has a few implications, of which none are good for the king and of which make me somewhat cautious given that the Maoists are involved.

First of all, the parties represent almost all of the seats in parliament, and the king’s reason for disbanding it was due to its inability to combat the Maoists. There are quite a lot of people in the country who support the king in this effort, but he has proven just as ineffective as he no longer has the support of civil society and the political parties. This is mostly due to the crackdown on any opposition to himself, so it’s really his fault.

The ceasefire itself is significant because it discredits the king in his reasons for disbanding the parliament and his ability to stop the Maoist insurgency. If the Maoists really do stop and uphold democratic standards for human rights, the parties will get most of the credit for negotiating an end to the conflict.

Such an alliance could potentially break the king, as we have seen in so many other countries before, but democratic alliances with Maoists or communists always give me a bad feeling in my stomach. Such alliances have turned out fine, as was the case with Chile at the end of the Pinochet dictatorship, but at large the Maoist insurgency has been an extremely violent one more comparable to that of Colombia than Chile. The question on my mind the most is: Once the king is overthrown, who will take power? The parties or the guys with the guns? If it’s the latter, and the Maoists don’t peacefully integrate into the political system, the outcome could be even worse than it is now.